基于概率模型的气井投资评价方法
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摘要
气井投资评价对气田经济有效开发十分重要,传统的现金流法评价周期长、评价结果滞后,不利于气田开发部署的及时调整。通过对四川盆地天然气气井效益和现金流法优缺点分折,引入单位无阻流量投资新参数来表征气井效益。研究表明,单位无阻流量投资和气井效益之间存在正态分布关系,在此基础上建立了利用单位无阻流量投资进行气井效益评价的概率模型,求解该概率模型就可在气井完成试气测试获得气井无阻流量参数后进行效益评价,即可大幅度缩短气井投资评价周期,对气井投资决策有重要的现实意义。
The cash flow method is widely used in gas well investment evaluation,which has the disadvantages of long evaluation cycle and lag of evaluation results, and is inconducive to timely deployment and adjustment. In order to overcome this problem,this paper focuses on the wells internal revenue rate and calculation method in Sichuan basin,and defines a new parameter: the unit investment of absolute open flow. It is proved that the parameter has normal distribution relationship with the wells efficiency. So then, the probability model is presented about gas wells efficiency through the unit investment of absolute open flow. Because of the model,gas well efficiency evaluation is completed immediately after the well testing. The model and method presented in this paper have a guiding significance for the gas well investment and the development of gas field.
The cash flow method is widely used in gas well investment evaluation,which has the disadvantages of long evaluation cycle and lag of evaluation results, and is inconducive to timely deployment and adjustment. In order to overcome this problem,this paper focuses on the wells internal revenue rate and calculation method in Sichuan basin,and defines a new parameter: the unit investment of absolute open flow. It is proved that the parameter has normal distribution relationship with the wells efficiency. So then, the probability model is presented about gas wells efficiency through the unit investment of absolute open flow. Because of the model,gas well efficiency evaluation is completed immediately after the well testing. The model and method presented in this paper have a guiding significance for the gas well investment and the development of gas field.
引文
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[2]王军.传统盈亏平衡分析的动态多因素改进[J].石油化工技术经济,2003,19(5):59-62.Wang Jun.Improvement of Dynamic Multi-Factors of Traditionnal Breakeven Analysis[J].Techno-Economics in Petrochemicals,2003,19(5):59-62.
[3]王雅春,卢双舫,庞雄奇.油气资源经济评价指标体系[J],油气田地面工程,2005,24(5):1-2.Wang Yachun,Lu Shuangfang,Pang Xiongqi.Economic Evaluation Index System of Oil and Gas Resources[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2005,24(5):1-2.
[4]Blank L,Tarquin A.工程经济学[M].第5版.北京:清华大学出版社,2003:89-92.Blank L,Tarquin A.Engineering Economics[M].5thed.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003:89-92.
[5]黄渝祥,邢爱芳.工程经济学[M].第二版.上海:同济大学出版社,1995:35-36.Huang Yuxiang,Xing Aifang.Engineering Economics[M].2nded.Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1995:35-36.
[6]陈武,曲晓强,陈尘,等.油田产能建设钻井成本最优经济界限研究[J].钻采工艺,2011,34(6):29-31.Chen Wu,Qu Xiaoqiang,Chen Chen,et al.Research on the Optimal Economic Limit of Drilling Cost[J].Drilling&Production Technology,2011,34(6):29-31.
[7]肖磊,刘老群,唐昌华,等.低渗透气藏储量最优经济评价模型与应用研究[J].中外能源,2010,15(5):60-63.Xiao Lei,Liu Laoqun,Tang Changhua,et al.Research of Optimizing Economic Evaluation Model of Low Permeability Gas Reserves and Its Application[J].Sino-Global Energy,2010,15(5):60-63.
[8]陈尘,杨军,程岚岚,等.气藏开发操作成本经济界限模型与应用[J].天然气与石油,2012,30(3):63-66.Chen Chen,Yang Jun,Cheng Lanlan,et al.Model of Economic Limit of Operation Costs in Gas Reservior Development and Its Application[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2012,30(3):63-66.
[9]Rahmawati S D,Whiltson C H,Foss B,et al.Integrated Field Operation and Optimization[J].Journal of Petroleum Science&Engineering,2012,81:161-170.
[10]Xu Qing,Yang Zhisheng,Chen Fuli,et al.Economic Evaluation of Volcanic Gas Production Project in Songliao Basin[C]//Paper SPE-166674-MS was Presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition,22-24 October,2013,Jakarta,Indonesia.New York:SPE,2013.
[11]刘宝和.中国石油勘探开发百科全书[M].开发卷.北京:石油工业出版社,2008:263-264.Liu Baohe.Encyclopedia of Petroleum Exploration and Development in China[M].Development Volume.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2008:263-264.
[12]陈武,邓川南.油气田开发单井经济产能界限模型研究[J].钻采工艺,2007,30(4):62-63.Chen Wu,Deng Chuannan.Research on Single Well Economic Pro-Ductivity Boundary Model in Oil and Gas Field Development[J].Drilling&Production Technology,2007,30(4):62-63.
[13]国家发展与改革委员会.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006:114-116.National Development and Reform Commission.Economic Evaluation Method and Parameters of Construction Projects[M].Beijing:China Planning Press,2006:114-116.
[14]陈武,钟水清.油气开采经济控制成本界限的确定及计算方法研究[J].天然气勘探与开发,2004,27(2):74-76.Chen Wu,Zhong Shuiqing.Research on Determination and Calculation of Economically Controlling the Cost Limit in Oil and Gas Production[J].Natural Gas Exploration&Development,2004,27(2):74-76.
[15]韩来聚,李洪乾,果传良,等.利用统计数据预测定向井钻井成本[J].石油钻探技术,1995,23(12):27-31.Han Laiju,Li Hongqian,Guo Chuanliang,et al.Prediction of Directional Drilling Cost with Statistical Data[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,1995,23(12):27-31.
[16]陈爱江,张文良.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:中国质检出版社,2014:12-15.Chen Aijiang,Zhang Wenliang.Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics[M].Beijing:China Zhijian Publishing House,2014:12-15.
[17]注册咨询工程师(投资)考试教材编写委员会.现代咨询方法与实务[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2003:300-301.Editorial Board of Registered Consulting Engineer(Investment)Examination Textbook.Modern Consulting Method and Practice[M].Beijing:China Planning Press,2003:300-301.
[18]余建英,何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2010:78-80.Yu Jianying,He Xuhong.Data Statistical Analysis and SPSSApplication[M].Beijing:Post&Telecom Press,2010:78-80.