一种基于代表性样点的钉螺密度抽样调查设计方法
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摘要
抽样设计是钉螺调查的关键环节,直接影响到统计推断的总体精度。目前湖沼型血吸虫病流行区钉螺调查常用的系统抽样设计方法存在样本量大、代表性不强、抽样效率不高等问题。通过对与钉螺空间分布上具有协同变化的环境因子进行模糊聚类分析,寻找可代表钉螺空间分布的代表性样点,提出一种基于代表性样点的抽样设计方法。将本研究设计的方法应用于鄱阳湖区恒湖农场茶叶港草洲的钉螺抽样设计研究,对采集的代表性样点进行误差分析,并将抽样结果与简单随机抽样和系统抽样方法进行精度比较。结果显示:本研究提出的"基于代表性样点的钉螺抽样设计方法(SORS)"明显优于简单随机抽样和系统抽样,抽样绝对误差分别为:0.440 7、1.551 4、3.565 3,相对误差分别为:1.048 1、3.689 7、8.479 6。本研究表明新方法能够获得比现有血防部门的钉螺调查方法更高的估算精度,可为优化湖沼型血吸虫病流行区钉螺调查方法提供借鉴。
Sampling site design plays a vital role in the survey of oncomelania hupensis,and directly affects the accuracy of statistical inference results. Currently,many problems,such as large samples demanded,poor representativeness and low efficiency in the traditional systematic sampling method in the marshland schistosomiasis epidemic area were met. This research proposed a spatial sampling method of oncomelania survey based on the representative samples-SORS,in which the Fuzzy c-means clustering analysis of snail environmental co-variation was performed to explore the spatial distribution characteristics This method was applied to snail survey in Chayegang marshland of Henghu farm in the Poyang Lake region,error analysis of the collected representative samples was conducted,and a comparison study was made among the outcomes of the SORS,the random sampling method and the traditional systematic sampling method. The results showed that the SORS method proposed was obviously better than the random sampling method and the traditional systematic sampling method,the absolute errors of snail number are 0. 440 7,1. 551 4 and 3. 565 3,the relative errors of snail number are 1. 048 1,3. 689 7 and 8. 479 6,respectively. It implies the new snail sampling method could obtain higher estimation accuracy than the current snail survey method,which could provide new scientific basis for optimization of snail survey method in the marshland schistosomiasis epidemic area in China.
Sampling site design plays a vital role in the survey of oncomelania hupensis,and directly affects the accuracy of statistical inference results. Currently,many problems,such as large samples demanded,poor representativeness and low efficiency in the traditional systematic sampling method in the marshland schistosomiasis epidemic area were met. This research proposed a spatial sampling method of oncomelania survey based on the representative samples-SORS,in which the Fuzzy c-means clustering analysis of snail environmental co-variation was performed to explore the spatial distribution characteristics This method was applied to snail survey in Chayegang marshland of Henghu farm in the Poyang Lake region,error analysis of the collected representative samples was conducted,and a comparison study was made among the outcomes of the SORS,the random sampling method and the traditional systematic sampling method. The results showed that the SORS method proposed was obviously better than the random sampling method and the traditional systematic sampling method,the absolute errors of snail number are 0. 440 7,1. 551 4 and 3. 565 3,the relative errors of snail number are 1. 048 1,3. 689 7 and 8. 479 6,respectively. It implies the new snail sampling method could obtain higher estimation accuracy than the current snail survey method,which could provide new scientific basis for optimization of snail survey method in the marshland schistosomiasis epidemic area in China.
引文
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[14]马玉宽,赵安.基于确定性系数法的鄱阳湖孕螺环境因子敏感性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):64-73.MA Y K,ZHAO A.Analysis of sensitivity to environmental factors for snail breeding in Poyang Lake region based on certainty factor model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(5):64-73.
[15]赵劲松,汪安云,周书林.长江滩地微生态环境与钉螺分布的关系[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2014,26(2):127-131.ZHAO J S,WANG A Y,ZHOU S L.Relationship between Yangtze River floodplain micro ecological environment and distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2014,26(2):127-131.
[16]通拉嘎,徐新良,付颖,等.地理环境因子对螺情影响的探测分析[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):625-635.TONG L G,XU X L,FU Y,et al.Impact of environmental factors on snail distribution using geographical detector model[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(5):625-635.
[17]谢娟,闻礼永.生态环境改变新态势对钉螺生长繁殖和扩散的影响[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2016,28(2):225-228.XIE J,WAN L Y.Impact of new trend of ecological environment changes on growth repro-duction and diffusion of Oncomelania hupensis[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2016,28(2):225-228.
[18]赵修江,孙志禹,高勇.三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖水位和生态的影响[J].三峡论坛(三峡文学·理论版),2010,230(5):19-22,147.ZHAO X J,SUN Z Y,GAO Y.Three Gorges Reservoir operation effects on water level and ecological function of Poyang Lake[J].China Three Gorges Tribune,2010,230(5):19-22,147.
[19]胡飞,刘跃民,李召军,等.鄱阳湖区环境因素对血吸虫病时空分布格局影响的研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2012,24(4):393-396.HU F,LIU Y M,LI Z J,et al.Effect of environmental factors on temporal and spatial distribution of schis-tosomiasis in Poyang Lake region[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2012,24(4):393-396.
[20]孙晓霞,刘晓霞,谢倩茹.模糊C-均值(FCM)聚类算法的实现[J].计算机应用与软件,2008,25(3):48-50.SUN X X,LIU X X,XIE Q R.The implementation of the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm[J].Computer Applications and Software,2008,25(3):48-50.
[21]SHANG Y D,ZHAO A.A comparative study on three sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis.Science Discovery,2017,5(4):270-275.
[2]赵安,孙九林,游松财.地球信息技术在血吸虫病孳生环境研究中的应用分析[J].地球信息科学,2007,9(3):17-20.ZHAO A,SUN J L,YOU S C.Application of geo-informatics to the study of schistosomiasis habitat[J].Geo-information Science,2007,9(3):17-20.
[3]赵安,张文馨,姚忠,等.湖沼型血吸虫病流行区钉螺抽样方法的对比研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2016,28(5):507-512.ZHAO A,ZHANG W X,YAO Z,et al.Comparison study on sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis snail sur-vey in marshland schistosomiasis epidemic areas in China[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2016,28(5):507-512.
[4]王劲峰,姜成晟,李连发,等.空间抽样与统计推断[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.WANG J F,JIANG C S,LI L F,et al.Spatial sampling and statistical inference[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[5]李世清,高亚军,李生秀.土壤养分的空间变异性及确定样本容量的研究[J].土壤与环境,2000,9(1):56-59.LI S Q,GAO Y J,LI S J.Study on spatial variability of soil nutrient and determining number of sample[J].Soil and Environmental Sciences,2000,9(1):56-59.
[6]WEBSTER R,OLIVER M A.Sample adequately to estimate vario-grams of soil properties[J].European Journal of Soil Science,1992,43(1):177-192.
[7]HENG T,ROSSITER D G,STEIN A.Soil sampling strategies for spatial prediction by correlation with auxiliary maps[J].Australian Journal of Soil Research,2003,41(8):1403-1422.
[8]MATTHEW G F,ROBERT J D,KERRIE L M.Spatially stratified sampling using auxiliary information for geostatistical mapping[J].Environmental and Ecological Statistics,2011,18(1):93-108.
[9]任旭红,潘瑜春,高秉博,等.类别辅助变量参与下的土壤无偏采样布局优化方法[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):120-128.REN X H,PAN Y C,GAO B B,et al.Optimization method of unbiased soil sampling and layout using categorical auxiliary variables information[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(21):120-128.
[10]俞纯权.论样本的代表性[J].统计与信息论坛,2003,18(2):12-14.YU C Q.A discussion on the representativeness of the sample[J].Statistics and Information Forum,2003,18(2):12-14.
[11]刘建平.辅助信息在抽样调查中的应用模型与方法[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007:98-103.LIU J P.Application models and methods of auxiliary information in sample survey[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007:98-103.
[12]赵安,蒋梅鑫,简敏菲,等.血吸虫病医学地理研究的回顾与展望[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):45-51.ZHAO A,JIANG M X,JIAN M F,et al.Progress and prospects of schistosomiasis-medical geography[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):45-51.
[13]钟久河,张绍基,刘志德,等.鄱阳湖钉螺分布与植被土壤关系的研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,1995,7(4):206-209.ZHONG J H,ZHANG S J,LIU Z D,et al.Studies on relationship of snail distribution with planttion and soil property of marshland in yoyang lake[J].Chin J Schisto Control,1995,7(4):206-209.
[14]马玉宽,赵安.基于确定性系数法的鄱阳湖孕螺环境因子敏感性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):64-73.MA Y K,ZHAO A.Analysis of sensitivity to environmental factors for snail breeding in Poyang Lake region based on certainty factor model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(5):64-73.
[15]赵劲松,汪安云,周书林.长江滩地微生态环境与钉螺分布的关系[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2014,26(2):127-131.ZHAO J S,WANG A Y,ZHOU S L.Relationship between Yangtze River floodplain micro ecological environment and distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2014,26(2):127-131.
[16]通拉嘎,徐新良,付颖,等.地理环境因子对螺情影响的探测分析[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):625-635.TONG L G,XU X L,FU Y,et al.Impact of environmental factors on snail distribution using geographical detector model[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(5):625-635.
[17]谢娟,闻礼永.生态环境改变新态势对钉螺生长繁殖和扩散的影响[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2016,28(2):225-228.XIE J,WAN L Y.Impact of new trend of ecological environment changes on growth repro-duction and diffusion of Oncomelania hupensis[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2016,28(2):225-228.
[18]赵修江,孙志禹,高勇.三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖水位和生态的影响[J].三峡论坛(三峡文学·理论版),2010,230(5):19-22,147.ZHAO X J,SUN Z Y,GAO Y.Three Gorges Reservoir operation effects on water level and ecological function of Poyang Lake[J].China Three Gorges Tribune,2010,230(5):19-22,147.
[19]胡飞,刘跃民,李召军,等.鄱阳湖区环境因素对血吸虫病时空分布格局影响的研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2012,24(4):393-396.HU F,LIU Y M,LI Z J,et al.Effect of environmental factors on temporal and spatial distribution of schis-tosomiasis in Poyang Lake region[J].Chin J Schisto Control,2012,24(4):393-396.
[20]孙晓霞,刘晓霞,谢倩茹.模糊C-均值(FCM)聚类算法的实现[J].计算机应用与软件,2008,25(3):48-50.SUN X X,LIU X X,XIE Q R.The implementation of the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm[J].Computer Applications and Software,2008,25(3):48-50.
[21]SHANG Y D,ZHAO A.A comparative study on three sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis.Science Discovery,2017,5(4):270-275.