基于灰色理论的矿井涌水量预测研究
|
摘要
针对矿井涌水量受水文地质条件、地质构造、降雨、开采工艺等多种因素影响,致使难以预测的问题,以义马煤田中部矿井水文地质条件为例,采用灰色理论,对大量的涌水量历史数据进行分析,建立了GM(1,1)涌水量预测模型,研究了实际值与预测值的残差与相对误差之间的关系,然后进行了精度检验,将实际值与预测值进行拟合比对,研究结果表明:利用灰色理论模型精度较高,适用性较强,可以作为预报模型使用。
In allusion to mine mine water inflow influence by hydrogeological conditions,geological structure,rainfall,mining technology and other factors,the unpredictable problem was based on the gray geological theory of the mine in the middle of Yima Coalfield,the historical data were analyzed and the GM( 1,1) gushing water prediction model was established. The relationship between the residual value of the actual value and the predicted value and the relative error was studied. Then,the precision was verified and the actual value was compared with the predicted value. The results showed that the gray model had high accuracy and applicability,and can be used as a forecast model.
In allusion to mine mine water inflow influence by hydrogeological conditions,geological structure,rainfall,mining technology and other factors,the unpredictable problem was based on the gray geological theory of the mine in the middle of Yima Coalfield,the historical data were analyzed and the GM( 1,1) gushing water prediction model was established. The relationship between the residual value of the actual value and the predicted value and the relative error was studied. Then,the precision was verified and the actual value was compared with the predicted value. The results showed that the gray model had high accuracy and applicability,and can be used as a forecast model.
引文
[1]李明洋.基于灰色理论煤矿事故致因分析及预测模型研究[M].北京:国土资源工程学院,2015.
[2]王苗.基于灰色理论的矿井顶板涌水量预测模型的建立与应用[D].济南:山东科技大学,2007.
[3]王素娜.基于同位素技术与灰色理论的常村矿水文地质特征研究[D].焦作:河南理工大学,2009.
[4]徐高强.山西省煤矿区矿井水涌水量预测模型研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2008.
[5]陈卓利.灵宝市银家沟硫铁矿充水条件分析与涌水量预测[D].焦作:河南理工大学,2011.
[6]邱国良,吴基文,王厚柱.基于灰色BP神经网络的水位矿井涌水量预测[J].矿业安全与环保,2011,38(6):28-30.Qiu Guoliang,Wu Jiwen,Wang Houzhu.Prediction of water inflow in water level based on gray BP neural network[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2011,38(6):28-30.
[7]胡建平.灰色关联分析在矿井涌水量计算中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,1996(1):40-42.Hu Jianping.Application of gray relational analysis in calculation of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,1996(1):40-42.
[8]王玉民,彭华,洪雷.煤峪口矿矿井涌水量的灰色关联分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2001,28(s1):177-179.Wang Yumin,Peng Hua,Hong Lei.Gray relational analysis of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2001,28(s1):177-179.
[9]周长春.煤矿井下涌水量的灰色预测[J].矿业安全与环保,1990(4):34-36.Zhou Changchun.Gray prediction of gushing water in coal mine[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,1990(4):34-36.
[10]陈健.基于灰色神经网络算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2013,32(5):81-82.Chen Jian.Study on prediction model of coal mine gas emission based on gray neural network algorithm[J].Coal Technology,2013,32(5):81-82.
[11]李树文,王平,张昌建,等.地下水灰模的交叉取向解法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用研究[J].矿业安全与环保,2013(4):19-22.Li Shuwen,Wang Ping,Zhang Changjian,et al.Application of cross-orientation method of groundwater gray mold in prediction of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2013(4):19-22.
[12]董礼.矿井瓦斯涌出量的灰色预测[J].煤炭技术,2003,22(8):63-65.Dong Li.Gray Prediction of mine gas emission[J].Coal Technology,2003,22(8):63-65.
[13]万仁保,罗招贤.基于灰色神经网络算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2012,31(11):81-82.Wan Renbao,Luo Zhaoxian.Study on prediction model of coal mine gas emission based on gray neural network algorithm[J].Coal Technology,2012,31(11):81-82.
[14]郎咸民.基于瓦斯地质理论的矿井瓦斯含量与涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2016,35(10):210-211.Lang Xianmin.Prediction of mine gas content and emission based on gas geological theory[J].Coal Technology,2016,35(10):210-211.
[15]李军文.基于灰色系统理论的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2011(5):99-100.Li Junwen.Prediction of gas emission from working face based on gray system theory[J].Coal Technology,2011(5):99-100.
[16]孙强,张振文.基于灰色理论的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2009,28(9):96-97.Sun Qiang,Zhang Zhenwen.Study on prediction model of mine gas emission based on gray theory[J].Coal Technology,2009,28(9):96-97.
[17]李林,姜德义.基于灰色理论的工伤事故死亡率预测模型研究[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(2):80-81.Li Lin,Jiang Deyi.Research on forecasting model of work injury accident mortality based on gray theory[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2007,34(2):80-81.
[18]王皓.基于灰色模型的煤矿涌水量预测研究[J].中国煤炭地质,2014(3):35-38.Wang Hao.Study on prediction of water yield of coal mine based on gray model[J].Coal Geology of China,2014(3):35-38.
[19]张淑玲,崔洪庆,刘国兴,等.灰色关联理论在矿井瓦斯涌出灾害预测中的应用[J].煤炭技术,2008,27(3):67-69.Zhang Shuling,Cui Hongqing,Liu Guoxing,et al.Application of gray relational theory in mine gas emission prediction[J].Coal Technology,2008,27(3):67-69.
[20]陈南春.矿井涌水量灰色模型预测[J].中国煤炭地质,1991(2):46-49.Chen Nanchun.Mine model of gray water[J].Coal Geology of China,1991(2):46-49.
[21]温伟,赵耀江,杨雪.基于改进灰色模型的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2014,33(4):34-36.Wen Wei,Zhao Yaojiang,Yang Xue.Prediction of mine gas emission based on improved gray model[J].Coal Technology,2014,33(4):34-36.
[22]刘国兴,张振文,冯文丽,等.灰色关联理论在矿井瓦斯涌出灾害预测中的应用[J].中国煤炭地质,2008,20(3):53-55.Liu Guoxing,Zhang Zhenwen,Feng Wenli,et al.Application of gray relational theory in mine gas emission prediction[J].Coal Geology of China,2008,20(3):53-55.
[23]谷松,张振文,李国军.矿井瓦斯涌出量的灰色小波神经网络预测模型[J].煤炭技术,2009,28(10):123-125.Gu Song,Zhang Zhenwen,Li Guojun.Gray wavelet neural network prediction model for mine gas emission[J].Coal Technology,2009,28(10):123-125.
[24]武克俭,李文彬.地下水加坡理论在井筒涌水量预算中的应用[J].中国煤炭地质,2008,20(11):24-25.Wu Kejian,Li Wenbin.Application of groundwater slang theory in well blowing water budget[J].Coal Geology of China,2008,20(11):24-25.
[2]王苗.基于灰色理论的矿井顶板涌水量预测模型的建立与应用[D].济南:山东科技大学,2007.
[3]王素娜.基于同位素技术与灰色理论的常村矿水文地质特征研究[D].焦作:河南理工大学,2009.
[4]徐高强.山西省煤矿区矿井水涌水量预测模型研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2008.
[5]陈卓利.灵宝市银家沟硫铁矿充水条件分析与涌水量预测[D].焦作:河南理工大学,2011.
[6]邱国良,吴基文,王厚柱.基于灰色BP神经网络的水位矿井涌水量预测[J].矿业安全与环保,2011,38(6):28-30.Qiu Guoliang,Wu Jiwen,Wang Houzhu.Prediction of water inflow in water level based on gray BP neural network[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2011,38(6):28-30.
[7]胡建平.灰色关联分析在矿井涌水量计算中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,1996(1):40-42.Hu Jianping.Application of gray relational analysis in calculation of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,1996(1):40-42.
[8]王玉民,彭华,洪雷.煤峪口矿矿井涌水量的灰色关联分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2001,28(s1):177-179.Wang Yumin,Peng Hua,Hong Lei.Gray relational analysis of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2001,28(s1):177-179.
[9]周长春.煤矿井下涌水量的灰色预测[J].矿业安全与环保,1990(4):34-36.Zhou Changchun.Gray prediction of gushing water in coal mine[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,1990(4):34-36.
[10]陈健.基于灰色神经网络算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2013,32(5):81-82.Chen Jian.Study on prediction model of coal mine gas emission based on gray neural network algorithm[J].Coal Technology,2013,32(5):81-82.
[11]李树文,王平,张昌建,等.地下水灰模的交叉取向解法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用研究[J].矿业安全与环保,2013(4):19-22.Li Shuwen,Wang Ping,Zhang Changjian,et al.Application of cross-orientation method of groundwater gray mold in prediction of mine water inflow[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2013(4):19-22.
[12]董礼.矿井瓦斯涌出量的灰色预测[J].煤炭技术,2003,22(8):63-65.Dong Li.Gray Prediction of mine gas emission[J].Coal Technology,2003,22(8):63-65.
[13]万仁保,罗招贤.基于灰色神经网络算法的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2012,31(11):81-82.Wan Renbao,Luo Zhaoxian.Study on prediction model of coal mine gas emission based on gray neural network algorithm[J].Coal Technology,2012,31(11):81-82.
[14]郎咸民.基于瓦斯地质理论的矿井瓦斯含量与涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2016,35(10):210-211.Lang Xianmin.Prediction of mine gas content and emission based on gas geological theory[J].Coal Technology,2016,35(10):210-211.
[15]李军文.基于灰色系统理论的回采工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2011(5):99-100.Li Junwen.Prediction of gas emission from working face based on gray system theory[J].Coal Technology,2011(5):99-100.
[16]孙强,张振文.基于灰色理论的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型研究[J].煤炭技术,2009,28(9):96-97.Sun Qiang,Zhang Zhenwen.Study on prediction model of mine gas emission based on gray theory[J].Coal Technology,2009,28(9):96-97.
[17]李林,姜德义.基于灰色理论的工伤事故死亡率预测模型研究[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(2):80-81.Li Lin,Jiang Deyi.Research on forecasting model of work injury accident mortality based on gray theory[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2007,34(2):80-81.
[18]王皓.基于灰色模型的煤矿涌水量预测研究[J].中国煤炭地质,2014(3):35-38.Wang Hao.Study on prediction of water yield of coal mine based on gray model[J].Coal Geology of China,2014(3):35-38.
[19]张淑玲,崔洪庆,刘国兴,等.灰色关联理论在矿井瓦斯涌出灾害预测中的应用[J].煤炭技术,2008,27(3):67-69.Zhang Shuling,Cui Hongqing,Liu Guoxing,et al.Application of gray relational theory in mine gas emission prediction[J].Coal Technology,2008,27(3):67-69.
[20]陈南春.矿井涌水量灰色模型预测[J].中国煤炭地质,1991(2):46-49.Chen Nanchun.Mine model of gray water[J].Coal Geology of China,1991(2):46-49.
[21]温伟,赵耀江,杨雪.基于改进灰色模型的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭技术,2014,33(4):34-36.Wen Wei,Zhao Yaojiang,Yang Xue.Prediction of mine gas emission based on improved gray model[J].Coal Technology,2014,33(4):34-36.
[22]刘国兴,张振文,冯文丽,等.灰色关联理论在矿井瓦斯涌出灾害预测中的应用[J].中国煤炭地质,2008,20(3):53-55.Liu Guoxing,Zhang Zhenwen,Feng Wenli,et al.Application of gray relational theory in mine gas emission prediction[J].Coal Geology of China,2008,20(3):53-55.
[23]谷松,张振文,李国军.矿井瓦斯涌出量的灰色小波神经网络预测模型[J].煤炭技术,2009,28(10):123-125.Gu Song,Zhang Zhenwen,Li Guojun.Gray wavelet neural network prediction model for mine gas emission[J].Coal Technology,2009,28(10):123-125.
[24]武克俭,李文彬.地下水加坡理论在井筒涌水量预算中的应用[J].中国煤炭地质,2008,20(11):24-25.Wu Kejian,Li Wenbin.Application of groundwater slang theory in well blowing water budget[J].Coal Geology of China,2008,20(11):24-25.