基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的云南省耕地生态安全评价与预测
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摘要
加强耕地资源的研究与保护有利于促进人与自然的协调共生发展。因此,文章对2000—2017年云南省耕地数据进行标准化处理并选用熵值法确定指标权重,基于PSR模型以2000—2017年耕地数据为原始数据,应用GM(1,1)预测模型和障碍度模型科学预测出2018—2025年云南省耕地生态安全状态,并对两个时间段的耕地生态安全状态进行了定量与定性分析。研究表明:2000—2017年云南省耕地生态安全状态分为临界安全、一般安全、较安全和安全四种安全等级;2018—2025年云南省耕地生态安全状态分为较安全和安全两种安全等级。在此基础上通过对影响耕地生态安全状态的障碍度测算,列出了主要的障碍因子,依据不同的障碍度和障碍因子为云南省耕地生态安全状态提出了合理化的建议与意见。
Strengthening the research and protection of cultivated land resources is propitious to promote the harmonious symbiosis development between human and nature. So we normalized the cultivated land data in Yunnan Province and the entropy value method was used to determine the index weight in 2000-2017 and based on the PSR model, the 2000-2017-year arable land data was applied to the original data, and use the GM(1, 1) model and the obstacle model scientifically predict the ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province in 2018-2025 years, and have the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ecological security status of arable land in two time periods. The results show that: in 2000-2017, the ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province was classified as critical safety, general safety, more safety and safety. The ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province in 2018-2025 was divided into more safety and safety. On this basis, through the measurement of the obstacles affecting the ecological security state of cultivated land, we lists the main obstacle factors, and puts forward some rationalization suggestions on the ecological security of cultivated land in Yunnan Province according to different obstacles and obstacle factors.
Strengthening the research and protection of cultivated land resources is propitious to promote the harmonious symbiosis development between human and nature. So we normalized the cultivated land data in Yunnan Province and the entropy value method was used to determine the index weight in 2000-2017 and based on the PSR model, the 2000-2017-year arable land data was applied to the original data, and use the GM(1, 1) model and the obstacle model scientifically predict the ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province in 2018-2025 years, and have the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ecological security status of arable land in two time periods. The results show that: in 2000-2017, the ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province was classified as critical safety, general safety, more safety and safety. The ecological security status of cultivated land in Yunnan Province in 2018-2025 was divided into more safety and safety. On this basis, through the measurement of the obstacles affecting the ecological security state of cultivated land, we lists the main obstacle factors, and puts forward some rationalization suggestions on the ecological security of cultivated land in Yunnan Province according to different obstacles and obstacle factors.
引文
[1]王千,金晓斌,周寅康,等.河北省耕地生态经济系统能值指标空间分布差异及其动因[J].生态学报,2011(1):247-256.
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[8]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015(3):257-267.
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[12]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016(9):19-27.
[13]郑华伟,张锐,孟展,等.基于PSR模型与集对分析的耕地生态安全诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015(12):42-50.
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[17]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013(11):1323-1329.
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[20]宋国正.修正的优化无偏GM(1,1)模型在瓦斯事故预测中的应用[J].工矿自动化,2013(7):50-53.
[21]汤汉,丁志广.非等间隔无偏GM(1,1)模型在基坑周边建筑物沉降预测中的应用[J].测绘通报,2016(S2):155-159.
[22]冯霞,刘新平.江苏省城镇化与生态环境系统耦合协同发展的路径选择[J].干旱区地理,2016(2):420-427.
[23]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于压力-状态-响应模型与集对分析的土地利用系统健康评价[J].水土保持通报,2014(5):146-152.
[24]谢花林,刘曲,姚冠荣,等.基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度--以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例[J].资源科学,2015(3):449-457.
[25]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子--以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014(2):515-524.
[26]彭文君,舒英格.喀斯特山区县域耕地景观生态安全及演变过程[J].生态学报,2018(3):852-865.
[2]王千,金晓斌,周寅康.河北省耕地生态安全及空间聚集格局[J].农业工程学报,2011(8):338-344.
[3]Rasul G,Thapa G B.Sustainability analysis of ecological and conventional agricultural systems in Bangladesh[J].World Development,2003,31(10):1721-1741.
[4]Okeji M C,Agwu K K,Idigo F U.Natural radioactivity in cultivated land in the vicinity of a phosphate fertilizer plant in Nigeria[J].Radiation Physics and Chemistry,2012,81(12):1823-1826.
[5]Beesley K B,Ramsey D.Agricultural land preservation[J].International Encyclopedia of Human Geography,2009,25(6):65-69.
[6]Walz R.Development of environment indicator systems:Experiences from Germany[J].Environmental Management,2000,25(6):613-623.
[7]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价[J].生态学报,2013(16):5090-5100.
[8]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015(3):257-267.
[9]郭荣中,杨敏华,申海建.长株潭地区耕地生态安全评价研究[J].农业机械学报,2016(10):193-201.
[10]朱红波,张安录.我国耕地资源生态安全的时空差异分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007(6):754-758.
[11]张冰洁,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区典型地域耕地生态安全评价及驱动力分析--以黑龙江省绥化市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012(3):215-220.
[12]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016(9):19-27.
[13]郑华伟,张锐,孟展,等.基于PSR模型与集对分析的耕地生态安全诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015(12):42-50.
[14]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[J].北京:中国统计出版社,2000-2017.
[15]国家统计局,环境保护部.中国环境统计年鉴[J].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[16]钟赛香,胡鹏,薛熙明,等.基于合理权重赋值方法选择的多因素综合评价模型--以JCR中70种人文地理期刊为例[J].地理学报,2015(12):2011-2031.
[17]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013(11):1323-1329.
[18]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[19]吉培荣,黄巍松,胡翔勇.无偏灰色预测模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2000(6):6-7.
[20]宋国正.修正的优化无偏GM(1,1)模型在瓦斯事故预测中的应用[J].工矿自动化,2013(7):50-53.
[21]汤汉,丁志广.非等间隔无偏GM(1,1)模型在基坑周边建筑物沉降预测中的应用[J].测绘通报,2016(S2):155-159.
[22]冯霞,刘新平.江苏省城镇化与生态环境系统耦合协同发展的路径选择[J].干旱区地理,2016(2):420-427.
[23]张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于压力-状态-响应模型与集对分析的土地利用系统健康评价[J].水土保持通报,2014(5):146-152.
[24]谢花林,刘曲,姚冠荣,等.基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度--以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例[J].资源科学,2015(3):449-457.
[25]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子--以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014(2):515-524.
[26]彭文君,舒英格.喀斯特山区县域耕地景观生态安全及演变过程[J].生态学报,2018(3):852-865.