全球价值链、异质性与企业存续
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摘要
基于PSM匹配样本,使用离散时间cloglog生存模型和Cox风险比例模型考察参与全球价值链对企业存续的影响,结果表明:企业参与全球价值链有助于延长其存续时间,但并非参与程度越高越有利于提高企业经营持续时间;异质性检验结果表明参与全球价值链对一般贸易型企业、技术密集型企业以及非国有企业存续时间的促进作用更大;中介模型回归结果显示融资能力提升、企业规模扩大以及要素配置效率改善是全球价值链影响企业存活的重要渠道。
This article employs the discrete-time cloglog survival model and the Cox risk scale model to examine the impact of participation in global value chains on enterprise survival,using the data of China's industrial enterprises and the custom from2000 to 2006,based on PSM matching samples. The results show that the enterprises participate in the global value chain helps to extend their duration,but not the higher the degree of participation,the more favorable the enterprise duration. The results of heterogeneity test indicate that participation in global value chain plays a greater role in promoting the duration of general trade enterprises,technology-intensive enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The regression results of the intermediary model show that the upgrading of financing capacity,the expansion of enterprise scale and the improvement of factor allocation efficiency are important channels for global value chain to affect the survival probability of enterprises. This paper provides a new perspective for the objective assessment of the economic effects of GVCS and provides a new way to understand the existence of Chinese enterprises. The regression results of median model show that the improvement of financing capacity,the expansion of enterprise scale and the improvement of factor allocation efficiency are important channels for global value chain to affect the survival probability of enterprises. This paper provides a new research perspective for objective assessment of the economic effects of global value chains,and provides new ideas for understanding the survival of Chinese enterprises.
This article employs the discrete-time cloglog survival model and the Cox risk scale model to examine the impact of participation in global value chains on enterprise survival,using the data of China's industrial enterprises and the custom from2000 to 2006,based on PSM matching samples. The results show that the enterprises participate in the global value chain helps to extend their duration,but not the higher the degree of participation,the more favorable the enterprise duration. The results of heterogeneity test indicate that participation in global value chain plays a greater role in promoting the duration of general trade enterprises,technology-intensive enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The regression results of the intermediary model show that the upgrading of financing capacity,the expansion of enterprise scale and the improvement of factor allocation efficiency are important channels for global value chain to affect the survival probability of enterprises. This paper provides a new perspective for the objective assessment of the economic effects of GVCS and provides a new way to understand the existence of Chinese enterprises. The regression results of median model show that the improvement of financing capacity,the expansion of enterprise scale and the improvement of factor allocation efficiency are important channels for global value chain to affect the survival probability of enterprises. This paper provides a new research perspective for objective assessment of the economic effects of global value chains,and provides new ideas for understanding the survival of Chinese enterprises.
引文
[1]OECD. Interconnected economies:benefiting from global value chains[R]. OECD Publishing,2013.
[2]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链如何改变了贸易政策:对产业升级的影响和启示[J].国际经济评论,2015(1):85-97+6.
[3]刘仕国,吴海英,马涛,等.利用全球价值链促进产业升级[J].国际经济评论,2015(1):64-84+5-6.
[4]刘维林,李兰冰,刘玉海.全球价值链嵌入对中国出口技术复杂度的影响[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):83-95.
[5]张杰,郑文平.全球价值链下中国本土企业的创新效应[J].经济研究,2017(3):151-165.
[6]BALDWIN J R,YAN B. Global value chains and the productivity of Canadian manufacturing firms[J]. EA(economic analysis)research paper,2014,No. 090e.
[7]吕越,黄艳希,陈勇兵.全球价值链嵌入的生产率效应:影响与机制分析[J].世界经济,2017(7):28-51.
[8]BERNARD A B,JENSEN J B,SCHOTT P K. Survival of the best fit:Exposure to low-wage countries and the(uneven)growth of U. S. manufacturing plants[J]. Journal of international economics,2006,68(1):219-237.
[9]杨继军,范从来.“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳健”的影响——基于价值链的实证检验[J].中国社会科学,2015(10):92-113+205-206.
[10]张同斌,王树贞,鲍曙明.“中国制造”对世界经济增长的贡献及分解研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(11):81-97.
[11]LOS B,TIMMER M P,VRIES G J D. How global are global value chains? A new approach to measure international fragmentation[J]. Journal of regional science,2015,55(1):66-92.
[12]GEREFFI G. International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain[J]. 1999,48(1):37-70.
[13]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters?[J].Regional studies,2002,36(9):1017-1027.
[14]GEREFFI G,LEE J. Why the world suddenly cares about global supply chains[J]. Journal of supply chain management,2012,48(3):24-32.
[15]王玉燕,林汉川,吕臣.全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(9):65-77.
[16]王岚.融入全球价值链对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响[J].统计研究,2014(5):17-23.
[17]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链、企业异质性与企业的成本加成[J].产业经济研究,2017(4):1-16.
[18]吕越,吕云龙.全球价值链嵌入会改善制造业企业的生产效率吗——基于双重稳健—倾向得分加权估计[J].财贸经济,2016(3):109-122.
[19]GRG H,STROBL E. Multinational companies,technology spillovers and plant survival[J]. Scandinavian journal of economics,2003,105(4):581-595.
[20]ALVAREZ R,GRG H. Multinationals and plant exit:evidence from Chile[J]. International review of economics and finance,2009,18(1):45-51.
[21]Wang Y. Exposure to FDI and new plant survival:evidence in Canada[J]. Canadian journal of economics,2013,46(1):46-77.
[22]吴小康,于津平.外商直接参与、间接溢出与工业企业生存[J].国际贸易问题,2014(4):126-135.
[23]GIRMA S,GONG Y. Putting people first? Chinese state-owned enterprises'adjustment to globalization[J].International journal of industrial organization,2008,26(2):573-585.
[24]邓子梁,陈岩.外商直接投资对国有企业生存的影响:基于企业异质性的研究[J].世界经济,2013(12):53-69.
[25]包群,叶宁华,王艳灵.外资竞争、产业关联与中国本土企业的市场存活[J].经济研究,2015(7):102-115.
[26]NAMINI J E,FACCHINI G,LPEZ R A. Export growth and firm survival[J]. Economics letters,2013,120(3):481-486.
[27]WAGNER J. Exports,imports and firm survival:first evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Germany[J]. Review of world economics,2013,149(1):113-130.
[28]逯宇铎,戴美虹,刘海洋.延长企业生存时间:单向贸易还是“双向国际化”?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(2):68-85.
[29]于娇,逯宇铎,刘海洋.出口行为与企业生存概率:一个经验研究[J].世界经济,2015(4):25-49.
[30]刘海洋,林令涛,李倩婷.进口中间品与中国企业生存扩延[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):58-75.
[31]BRIDGES S,GUARIGLIA A. Financial constraints,global engagement,and firm survival in the United Kingdom:evidence from micro data[J]. Scottish journal of political economy,2008,55(4):444-464.
[32]叶宁华,包群.信贷配给、所有制差异与企业存活期限[J].金融研究,2013(12):140-153.
[33]BARROT J-N. Trade credit and industry dynamics:evidence from trucking firms[J]. Journal of finance,2016,71(5):1975-2016.
[34]HELMERS C,ROGERS M. Innovation and the survival of new firms in the UK[J]. Review of industrial organization,2010,36(3):227-248.
[35]史宇鹏,和昂达,陈永伟.产权保护与企业存续:来自制造业的证据[J].管理世界,2013(8):118-125+135+188.
[36]许家云,毛其淋.政府补贴、治理环境与中国企业生存[J].世界经济,2016(2):75-99.
[37]刘海洋,林令涛,黄顺武.地方官员变更与企业兴衰——来自地级市层面的证据[J].中国工业经济,2017(1):62-80.
[38]TAYMAZ E,ZLER S. Foreign ownership, competition, and survival dynamics[J]. Review of industrial organization,2007,31(1):23-42.
[39]毛其淋,盛斌.中国制造业企业的进入退出与生产率动态演化[J].经济研究,2013(4):16-29.
[40]BOYER T,BLAZY R. Born to be alive? The survival of innovative and non-innovative French micro-start-ups[J].Small business economics,2014,42(4):669-683.
[41]BALDWIN R,LOPEZ-GONZALEZ J. Supply-chain trade:a portrait of global patterns and several testable hypotheses[J].World economy,2015,38(11):1682-1721.
[42]吕越,高媛,田展源.全球价值链嵌入可以缓解企业的融资约束吗?[J].产业经济研究,2018(1):1-14+38.
[43]UNCTAD. World investment report 2013. Global value chains:investment and trade for development[R]. New York:UNCTAD,2013.
[44]CAMPA J,SHAVER J M. Exporting and capital investment:on the strategic behavior of exporters[R]. IESE research paper,2002,No. D/469.
[45]HELPMAN E,MELITZ M J,YEAPLE S R. Export versus FDI with heterogeneous firms[J]. American economic review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[46]MOLL B. Productivity losses from financial frictions:can self-financing undo capital misallocation?[J]. American economic review,2014,104(10):3186-3221.
[47]MIDRIGAN V,XU Y. Finance and misallocation:evidence from plant-level data[J]. American economic review,2014,104(2):422-458.
[48]GROSSMAN G M,HELPMAN E. Quality ladders in the theory of growth[J]. Review of economic studies,1991,58(1):43-61.
[49]许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017(3):52-75.
[50]张琼,杨晓龙,陈秀丽.产业分工、国际贸易摩擦及我国的对策——基于价值链视角的研究[J].贵州财经大学学报,2017(1):25-32.
[51]AMITI M,KONINGS J. Trade liberalization,intermediate inputs,and productivity:evidence from Indonesia[J].American economic review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[52]HECKMAN J,ICHIMURA H,SMITH J,et al. Characterizing selection bias using experimental data[J].Econometrica,1998,66(5):1017-1098.
[53]ESTEVE-PREZ S,REQUENA-SILVENTE F,PALLARD-LOPEZ V J. The duration of firm-destination export relationships:evidence from Spain,1997—2006[J]. Economic inquiry,2013,51(1):159-180.
[54]UPWARD R,WANG Z,ZHENG J H. Weighing China's export basket:the domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J]. Journal of comparative economics,2013,41(2):527-543.
[55]吕越,罗伟,刘斌.异质性企业与全球价值链嵌入:基于效率和融资的视角[J].世界经济,2015(8):29-55.
[56]BRANDT L,TOMBE T,ZHU X D. Factor market distortions across time,space and sectors in China[J]. Review of economic dynamics,2013,16(1):39-58.
[57]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012(7):48-61.
[58]BESEDET,PRUSA T J. Product differentiation and duration of US import trade[J]. Journal of international economics,2006,70(2):339-358.
[59]洪世勤,刘厚俊.出口技术结构变迁与内生经济增长:基于行业数据的研究[J].世界经济,2013(6):79-107.
[60]ANTRS P,HELPMAN E. Global souring[J]. Journal of political economy,2004,112(3):552-580.
(1)国家工商总局企业注册局:2013年《全国内资企业生存时间分析报告》。
(2)普华永道会计师事务所:2011年《2011年中国企业长期激励调研报告》。
(3)由于本文数据期间为2000-2006年,而目前HS编码有HS1992、HS1996、HS2000、HS2002、HS2007等几个版本,故本文采用HS1996编码与BEC编码进行转换,避免因编码调整导致计算结果出现误差。BEC中间产品(M)代码:“111”“12”“21”“22”“31”“322”“42”“53”。
(4)实际加工贸易进口额、实际一般贸易中间投入进口额测算方法可参考吕越等[55]的研究。
(5)行业划分标准可参考洪世勤和刘厚俊[59]的方法。
(6)中介模型中总效应以及变量中介效应计算结果可向作者索要。
[2]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链如何改变了贸易政策:对产业升级的影响和启示[J].国际经济评论,2015(1):85-97+6.
[3]刘仕国,吴海英,马涛,等.利用全球价值链促进产业升级[J].国际经济评论,2015(1):64-84+5-6.
[4]刘维林,李兰冰,刘玉海.全球价值链嵌入对中国出口技术复杂度的影响[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):83-95.
[5]张杰,郑文平.全球价值链下中国本土企业的创新效应[J].经济研究,2017(3):151-165.
[6]BALDWIN J R,YAN B. Global value chains and the productivity of Canadian manufacturing firms[J]. EA(economic analysis)research paper,2014,No. 090e.
[7]吕越,黄艳希,陈勇兵.全球价值链嵌入的生产率效应:影响与机制分析[J].世界经济,2017(7):28-51.
[8]BERNARD A B,JENSEN J B,SCHOTT P K. Survival of the best fit:Exposure to low-wage countries and the(uneven)growth of U. S. manufacturing plants[J]. Journal of international economics,2006,68(1):219-237.
[9]杨继军,范从来.“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳健”的影响——基于价值链的实证检验[J].中国社会科学,2015(10):92-113+205-206.
[10]张同斌,王树贞,鲍曙明.“中国制造”对世界经济增长的贡献及分解研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(11):81-97.
[11]LOS B,TIMMER M P,VRIES G J D. How global are global value chains? A new approach to measure international fragmentation[J]. Journal of regional science,2015,55(1):66-92.
[12]GEREFFI G. International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain[J]. 1999,48(1):37-70.
[13]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters?[J].Regional studies,2002,36(9):1017-1027.
[14]GEREFFI G,LEE J. Why the world suddenly cares about global supply chains[J]. Journal of supply chain management,2012,48(3):24-32.
[15]王玉燕,林汉川,吕臣.全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(9):65-77.
[16]王岚.融入全球价值链对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响[J].统计研究,2014(5):17-23.
[17]盛斌,陈帅.全球价值链、企业异质性与企业的成本加成[J].产业经济研究,2017(4):1-16.
[18]吕越,吕云龙.全球价值链嵌入会改善制造业企业的生产效率吗——基于双重稳健—倾向得分加权估计[J].财贸经济,2016(3):109-122.
[19]GRG H,STROBL E. Multinational companies,technology spillovers and plant survival[J]. Scandinavian journal of economics,2003,105(4):581-595.
[20]ALVAREZ R,GRG H. Multinationals and plant exit:evidence from Chile[J]. International review of economics and finance,2009,18(1):45-51.
[21]Wang Y. Exposure to FDI and new plant survival:evidence in Canada[J]. Canadian journal of economics,2013,46(1):46-77.
[22]吴小康,于津平.外商直接参与、间接溢出与工业企业生存[J].国际贸易问题,2014(4):126-135.
[23]GIRMA S,GONG Y. Putting people first? Chinese state-owned enterprises'adjustment to globalization[J].International journal of industrial organization,2008,26(2):573-585.
[24]邓子梁,陈岩.外商直接投资对国有企业生存的影响:基于企业异质性的研究[J].世界经济,2013(12):53-69.
[25]包群,叶宁华,王艳灵.外资竞争、产业关联与中国本土企业的市场存活[J].经济研究,2015(7):102-115.
[26]NAMINI J E,FACCHINI G,LPEZ R A. Export growth and firm survival[J]. Economics letters,2013,120(3):481-486.
[27]WAGNER J. Exports,imports and firm survival:first evidence for manufacturing enterprises in Germany[J]. Review of world economics,2013,149(1):113-130.
[28]逯宇铎,戴美虹,刘海洋.延长企业生存时间:单向贸易还是“双向国际化”?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(2):68-85.
[29]于娇,逯宇铎,刘海洋.出口行为与企业生存概率:一个经验研究[J].世界经济,2015(4):25-49.
[30]刘海洋,林令涛,李倩婷.进口中间品与中国企业生存扩延[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):58-75.
[31]BRIDGES S,GUARIGLIA A. Financial constraints,global engagement,and firm survival in the United Kingdom:evidence from micro data[J]. Scottish journal of political economy,2008,55(4):444-464.
[32]叶宁华,包群.信贷配给、所有制差异与企业存活期限[J].金融研究,2013(12):140-153.
[33]BARROT J-N. Trade credit and industry dynamics:evidence from trucking firms[J]. Journal of finance,2016,71(5):1975-2016.
[34]HELMERS C,ROGERS M. Innovation and the survival of new firms in the UK[J]. Review of industrial organization,2010,36(3):227-248.
[35]史宇鹏,和昂达,陈永伟.产权保护与企业存续:来自制造业的证据[J].管理世界,2013(8):118-125+135+188.
[36]许家云,毛其淋.政府补贴、治理环境与中国企业生存[J].世界经济,2016(2):75-99.
[37]刘海洋,林令涛,黄顺武.地方官员变更与企业兴衰——来自地级市层面的证据[J].中国工业经济,2017(1):62-80.
[38]TAYMAZ E,ZLER S. Foreign ownership, competition, and survival dynamics[J]. Review of industrial organization,2007,31(1):23-42.
[39]毛其淋,盛斌.中国制造业企业的进入退出与生产率动态演化[J].经济研究,2013(4):16-29.
[40]BOYER T,BLAZY R. Born to be alive? The survival of innovative and non-innovative French micro-start-ups[J].Small business economics,2014,42(4):669-683.
[41]BALDWIN R,LOPEZ-GONZALEZ J. Supply-chain trade:a portrait of global patterns and several testable hypotheses[J].World economy,2015,38(11):1682-1721.
[42]吕越,高媛,田展源.全球价值链嵌入可以缓解企业的融资约束吗?[J].产业经济研究,2018(1):1-14+38.
[43]UNCTAD. World investment report 2013. Global value chains:investment and trade for development[R]. New York:UNCTAD,2013.
[44]CAMPA J,SHAVER J M. Exporting and capital investment:on the strategic behavior of exporters[R]. IESE research paper,2002,No. D/469.
[45]HELPMAN E,MELITZ M J,YEAPLE S R. Export versus FDI with heterogeneous firms[J]. American economic review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[46]MOLL B. Productivity losses from financial frictions:can self-financing undo capital misallocation?[J]. American economic review,2014,104(10):3186-3221.
[47]MIDRIGAN V,XU Y. Finance and misallocation:evidence from plant-level data[J]. American economic review,2014,104(2):422-458.
[48]GROSSMAN G M,HELPMAN E. Quality ladders in the theory of growth[J]. Review of economic studies,1991,58(1):43-61.
[49]许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017(3):52-75.
[50]张琼,杨晓龙,陈秀丽.产业分工、国际贸易摩擦及我国的对策——基于价值链视角的研究[J].贵州财经大学学报,2017(1):25-32.
[51]AMITI M,KONINGS J. Trade liberalization,intermediate inputs,and productivity:evidence from Indonesia[J].American economic review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[52]HECKMAN J,ICHIMURA H,SMITH J,et al. Characterizing selection bias using experimental data[J].Econometrica,1998,66(5):1017-1098.
[53]ESTEVE-PREZ S,REQUENA-SILVENTE F,PALLARD-LOPEZ V J. The duration of firm-destination export relationships:evidence from Spain,1997—2006[J]. Economic inquiry,2013,51(1):159-180.
[54]UPWARD R,WANG Z,ZHENG J H. Weighing China's export basket:the domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J]. Journal of comparative economics,2013,41(2):527-543.
[55]吕越,罗伟,刘斌.异质性企业与全球价值链嵌入:基于效率和融资的视角[J].世界经济,2015(8):29-55.
[56]BRANDT L,TOMBE T,ZHU X D. Factor market distortions across time,space and sectors in China[J]. Review of economic dynamics,2013,16(1):39-58.
[57]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012(7):48-61.
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(1)国家工商总局企业注册局:2013年《全国内资企业生存时间分析报告》。
(2)普华永道会计师事务所:2011年《2011年中国企业长期激励调研报告》。
(3)由于本文数据期间为2000-2006年,而目前HS编码有HS1992、HS1996、HS2000、HS2002、HS2007等几个版本,故本文采用HS1996编码与BEC编码进行转换,避免因编码调整导致计算结果出现误差。BEC中间产品(M)代码:“111”“12”“21”“22”“31”“322”“42”“53”。
(4)实际加工贸易进口额、实际一般贸易中间投入进口额测算方法可参考吕越等[55]的研究。
(5)行业划分标准可参考洪世勤和刘厚俊[59]的方法。
(6)中介模型中总效应以及变量中介效应计算结果可向作者索要。