一种评估舰艇损管指挥行动效能的概率统计量化方法
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摘要
基于概率统计量化评估舰艇损管指挥行动效能模型提出了一种客观评价指挥行为的方法。围绕评估指标量选取问题,按照舰艇损管基本要求构建指挥行动效能评估判据,分析了评估要素指标量转化统计量的基本策略,给出依分布律转换计算模型。遵循效能评估对象本质特征和事件树定量分析基本原理,提出基于事件树概率重要度计算评估权值的变权评估模型。运用变权模型和恒权模型分别对案例样本正态分布和均匀分布转换计算结果进行了综合效能评估计算,评估结果体现了目标对象事物发展本质规律。以指挥行为全局影响效果评价为目标,融合"突出优势"和"惩罚缺陷"评估策略对指挥行动效果进行合理量化。
A method based on probability and statistics is used to evaluate the operational effectiveness model of naval vessel damage control command action,and an objective evaluation method of command behavior is proposed. Focusing on the problem of index scalar selection,a command action effectiveness evaluation criterion is constructed according to the basic requirements of ship damage control,and the basic strategies of transformation statistics of index elements are analyzed,and the computation model based on distribution law is given. According to the essential characteristics of efficiency evaluation and the basic principles of quantitative analysis of event tree,a variable weight evaluation model based on probability importance degree of event tree is proposed to evaluate weights. By using the variable weight model and constant weight model,the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation of normal and uniform transformation results of case samples is carried out respectively,and the evaluation results reflect the essential rule of object development. Taking the evaluation of command behavior and global impact as the goal,quantify the effect of command action reasonably with the evaluation strategy of " prominent advantage" and " punishment defect".
A method based on probability and statistics is used to evaluate the operational effectiveness model of naval vessel damage control command action,and an objective evaluation method of command behavior is proposed. Focusing on the problem of index scalar selection,a command action effectiveness evaluation criterion is constructed according to the basic requirements of ship damage control,and the basic strategies of transformation statistics of index elements are analyzed,and the computation model based on distribution law is given. According to the essential characteristics of efficiency evaluation and the basic principles of quantitative analysis of event tree,a variable weight evaluation model based on probability importance degree of event tree is proposed to evaluate weights. By using the variable weight model and constant weight model,the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation of normal and uniform transformation results of case samples is carried out respectively,and the evaluation results reflect the essential rule of object development. Taking the evaluation of command behavior and global impact as the goal,quantify the effect of command action reasonably with the evaluation strategy of " prominent advantage" and " punishment defect".
引文
[1]钱晓超,董晨,陆志沣.基于效能评估的武器装备体系优化设计方法[J].系统仿真技术,2017,13(4):286-291+362.
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[2]哈军贤,王劲松.基于系统动力学的网络空间作战指挥效能评估[J].指挥控制与仿真,2016,38(3):70-75.
[3]董晓波.突发事件应急管控体系指挥效能评估研究[J].管理评论,2017,29(2):201-207+220.
[4]杨春周,滕克难,程月波.作战效能评估指标权重的确定[J].计算机仿真,2008,25(10):5-7+11.
[5]YANG Yu-lan,TAI Hui-xin,SHI Tao.Weighting indicators of building energy efficiency assessment taking account of experts'priority[J].Journal of Central South University,2012,19(03):803-808.
[6]孔令富,郭万海,梁大伟.作战指挥隐蔽性指标定量评估方法研究[J].指挥控制与仿真,2006,28(3):38-40.
[7]黄国庆,王明绪,王国良.效能评估中的改进熵值法赋权研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2012,48(28):245-248.
[8]许贵君,王晖,赵凯.基于仿真的装备保障指挥效能评估方法研究[J].计算机仿真,2017,34(11):1-6.
[9]金国成,孙剑平.水面舰艇作战指挥系统效能评估方法[J].舰船电子对抗,2008,31(2):41-43.
[10]孙兰会,成锋陆,愈实.关于事故树的结构重要度分析[J].科技通报,2015,34(4):248-250.