山区二级公路交通事故致因的时间演化机制
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摘要
为获取二级公路事故致因的时间演化机制,根据云南省元(谋)双(柏)二级公路2012—2017年事故数据,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,以时间、交通运行环境及交通事故参与者等为自变量,基于熵权-逼近理想解排序(TOPSIS)法量化交通事故严重程度;采用相关性分析法分析自变量与因变量间的相关程度;依托Logistic模型建立各年交通事故严重程度分析模型,并从拟合优度检验和预测准度检验等2方面检验模型的信度与效度。结果表明:事故发生天气、时间段、事故形态、是否涉及无防护车辆以及是否涉及大型车辆等与事故严重程度相关性较高,且形态为碰撞行人、涉及无防护车辆或大型车辆的事故严重程度较高。
In order to study the temporal evolution of traffic accidents causes,the entropy-TOPSIS is adopted to quantify the severity of traffic accidents based on the accident data of Yuan-Shuang secondary highway from 2012 to 2017 and using the severity of accidents as dependent variable and the time,traffic environment and participants of accidents as independent variables. Then the correlation analysis was made to study the degree of correlation between dependent variables and independent variables. Finally,a severity analysis model of traffic accidents on each year was established based on Logistic model and its reliability and validity were verified by taking goodness of fit test and prediction accuracy test. The results show that the severity of accidents is highly correlated with factors like weather,time period,accident type,involvement of unprotected vehicles or not and involvement of oversize vehicles or not,and the accident would be severer when an unprotected or oversize vehicle hits pedestrians.
In order to study the temporal evolution of traffic accidents causes,the entropy-TOPSIS is adopted to quantify the severity of traffic accidents based on the accident data of Yuan-Shuang secondary highway from 2012 to 2017 and using the severity of accidents as dependent variable and the time,traffic environment and participants of accidents as independent variables. Then the correlation analysis was made to study the degree of correlation between dependent variables and independent variables. Finally,a severity analysis model of traffic accidents on each year was established based on Logistic model and its reliability and validity were verified by taking goodness of fit test and prediction accuracy test. The results show that the severity of accidents is highly correlated with factors like weather,time period,accident type,involvement of unprotected vehicles or not and involvement of oversize vehicles or not,and the accident would be severer when an unprotected or oversize vehicle hits pedestrians.
引文
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[3]付锐,郭应时,袁伟,等.连续下坡道路事故率与纵面参数关系研究[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(3):101-106.FU Rui,GUO Yingshi,YUAN Wei,et al.Research on relation of traffic accident rate and longitudinal parameters in continuous downgrade road[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2009,22(3):101-106.
[4]严新平,黄合来,马明.美国道路交通安全现状及研究热点[J].交通信息与安全,2009,27(5):1-9.YAN Xinping,HUANG Helai,MA Ming.Road safety in the United States:state of the art and the practice[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2009,27(5):1-9.
[5]李浩然,吴超仲,褚端峰,等.基于K均值聚类的高速公路汽车碰撞事故分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(11):91-96.LI Haoran,WU Chaozhong,CHU Duanfeng,et al.Statistical analysis of car crash on freeways based on K-means clustering[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(11):91-96.
[6]孟祥海,覃薇.基于统计及假设检验的高速公路事故多发点分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(5):158-163.MENG Xianghai,QIN Wei.Analysis of black spot for freeway based on both statistics and hypothesis testing[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(5):158-163.
[7]刘强,陆化普,张永波,等.我国道路交通事故特征分析与对策研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(6):123-128.LIU Qiang,LU Huapu,ZHANG Yongbo,et al.Characteristic analysis and countermeasure study on road traffic accidents in China[J].China Safety Science Journal,2006,16(6):123-128.
[8]冯忠祥,雷叶维,张卫华,等.道路环境对绕城高速公路交通事故严重程度影响分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(5):116-123.FENG Zhongxiang,LEI Yewei,ZHANG Weihua,et al.Analysis on traffic accident severity influenced by road environment on circular highway[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(5):116-123.
[9]HAYNES R,JONES A,KENNEDY V,et al.District variations in road curvature in England and Wales and their association with road-traffic crashes[J].Environment&Planning A,2007,39(5):1 222-1 237.
[10]蔡果.二级公路成为事故之路的症结[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(11):33-40.CAI Guo.The crux of 2nd rank highway becoming the accident frequent-occurring highway[J].China Safety Science Journal,2004,14(11):33-40.
[11]邱兆文,张广昕,孙晋伟.基于交通平静化的一、二级公路交通安全研究[J].长安大学学报:社会科学版,2013,15(2):38-41.QIU Zhaowen,ZHANG Guangxin,SUN Jinwei.Study on traffic safety of first and second class highways based on traffic calming[J].Journal of Chang'an University:Social Science Edition,2013,15(2):38-41.
[12]任英,彭红星.中国交通事故伤亡人数影响因素的实证分析[J].预测,2013,32(3):1-7.REN Ying,PENG Hongxing.Factors affecting China traffic accident casualties:an empirical study[J].Forecasting,2013,32(3):1-7.
[13]SEYED T H,YASER S,GHASEM M,et al.Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars province of Iran[J].Chinese Journal of Traumatology,2013,16(2):84-88.
[14]公安部.关于修订道路交通事故等级划分标准的通知[Z].
[15]Federal Highway Administration.Crash cost estimates by maximum police-reported injury severity within selected crash geometries[R],2005.
[16]美国国家公路和运输官员协会.道路安全手册[M].安实,王健,欧阳彦峰,等,译.北京:人民交通出版社,2016:194.America Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.Highway safety manual[M].AN Shi,WANG Jian,OUYANG Yanfeng,et al,Translated.Beijing:China Communication Press,2016:194.