基于DSGE视角的中国碳排放政策与经济增长
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摘要
为模拟我国不同强度碳排放政策下实体经济波动情况,构建了包含碳排放政策的DSGE模型,试图分析面临技术冲击和政策冲击时不同强度的碳排放政策对我国主要宏观经济变量的影响。结果表明:碳减排与保持经济增速两个目标的实现在短期内具有相悖性,政府对碳排放政策强度的关注度不同,其对宏观经济变量的影响也不同;效果过强或过弱的碳排放政策均不利于中国经济长期可持续发展,适度的碳排放政策才会达到平衡兼顾的效果。
In order to simulate the economic fluctuation under different carbon emission policies of different strength,this paper constructs a DSGE model including carbon emission policies to analyze how the policies influence on a country's main macroeconomic variables when facing technology shocks and policy shocks. Results show that: It is inconsistent in China between realizing the goals of reducing carbon emission and maintaining economic growth. When the government pays different attention to the strength of carbon emission,the influence on the mail macroeconomic variables is different. It will have negative impact on Chinese long-term development no matter the carbon emission policies are too strong or too weak. The Balancing effect will be realized only by choosing the carbon emission policy with moderate intensity.
In order to simulate the economic fluctuation under different carbon emission policies of different strength,this paper constructs a DSGE model including carbon emission policies to analyze how the policies influence on a country's main macroeconomic variables when facing technology shocks and policy shocks. Results show that: It is inconsistent in China between realizing the goals of reducing carbon emission and maintaining economic growth. When the government pays different attention to the strength of carbon emission,the influence on the mail macroeconomic variables is different. It will have negative impact on Chinese long-term development no matter the carbon emission policies are too strong or too weak. The Balancing effect will be realized only by choosing the carbon emission policy with moderate intensity.
引文
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[12]杨翱,刘纪显.模拟征收碳税对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):53-66.
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[15]袁申国,陈平,刘兰凤.汇率制度、金融加速器和经济波动[J].经济研究,2011(7):57-70.
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[17]王立勇,张良贵,刘文革.不同粘性条件下金融加速器效应的经验研究[J].经济研究,2012(10):69-81.
[2]陈文颖,高鹏飞,何建坤.二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(6):744-747.
[3]Jouvet P A,Michel P,Rotillon G.Optimal Growth with Pollution:How to Use Pollution Permits?[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2005,29(9):1597-1609.
[4]姚昕,刘希颖.基于增长视角的中国最优碳税研究[J].经济研究,2010(11):48-58.
[5]石敏俊,袁永娜,周晟吕,等.碳减排政策:碳税、碳交易还是两者兼之?[J].管理科学学报,2013(9):9-19.
[6]Fischer C,Springborn M.Emissions Targets and the Real Business Cycle:Intensity Targets versus Caps or Taxes[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2011,62(3):352-366.
[7]Heutel G.How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles?Optimal Policy Under Persistent Productivity Shocks[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2012,15(2):244-264.
[8]Fried S,Johnson J,Morris S D.Environmental Policy and Short Run Macroeconomic Tradeoffs[R].San Diego:University of California,2013.
[9]郑丽琳,朱启贵.技术冲击、二氧化碳排放与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟[J].财经研究,2012(7):37-48.
[10]吴兴弈,刘纪显,杨翱.模拟统一碳排放市场的建立对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型[J].南方经济,2014(9):78-97.
[11]杨翱,刘纪显,吴兴弈.基于DSGE模型的碳减排目标和碳排放政策效应研究[J].资源科学,2014(7):1452-1461.
[12]杨翱,刘纪显.模拟征收碳税对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):53-66.
[13]Bernanke B S,Gertler M,Gilchrist S.The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework[A].Taylor J B,M Woodford,Handbook of Macroeconomics[Z].1999.1341-1393.
[14]刘兰凤,袁申国.中国经济金融加速器效应的DSGE模型分析[J].南方经济,2012(8):102-114.
[15]袁申国,陈平,刘兰凤.汇率制度、金融加速器和经济波动[J].经济研究,2011(7):57-70.
[16]Merola,Rossana.Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions[J].Discussion Paper Series 1,Economic Studies,2010:2-38.
[17]王立勇,张良贵,刘文革.不同粘性条件下金融加速器效应的经验研究[J].经济研究,2012(10):69-81.