基于三阶段DEA的江苏石化产业碳排放效率分析
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摘要
"十三五"期间江苏石化产业面临较大的节能减排压力。针对这一现状,选取江苏13市2006-2015年石化产业面板数据,从全要素指标角度出发,采用三阶段DEA模型测度江苏整体和内部石化产业碳排放效率及其动态变化,并通过聚类分析对省内各区域石化产业碳排放水平进行归类比较。实证结果发现:江苏石化产业碳排放效率呈上升趋势,但与效率最优水平仍有一定差距;省内石化产业碳排放效率分布呈现"苏南>苏中>苏北"的格局,区域间外部环境差异日益减小,分布失衡状况逐年改善。结合实证提出未来江苏可以通过加速石化产业集群建设、制定差异化碳减排策略、加强区域间碳减排交流合作、推进过剩石化产能对外有序转移等措施提高江苏石化产业碳排放效率。
Aiming at the severe pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction in petrochemical industry during the 13th five-year plan period of Jiangsu Province, the study selected the panel data of petrochemical industry from 2006 to 2015 in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, from the perspective of total factor index, to measure the carbon emission efficiency and its dynamic change of the whole and interregional petrochemical industry in the Province by three-stage DEA model, and the carbon emission levels of regional petrochemical industry were classified and compared by cluster analysis. The empirical results show that the carbon emission efficiency of Jiangsu petrochemical industry is on the rise, but there is still a gap with the optimal level of efficiency; the distribution of carbon emission efficiency shows the pattern of"South-Jiangsu > Middle-Jiangsu >North-Jiangsu", the difference of external environment are decreasing, the distribution imbalance situation has been improved year by year. To improve efficiency of carbon emissions, Jiangsu can speed up the construction of petrochemical industrial cluster, develop differential carbon reduction strategies, strengthen regional exchanges and cooperation, promote the orderly transfer of excess petrochemical production capacity in the future.
Aiming at the severe pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction in petrochemical industry during the 13th five-year plan period of Jiangsu Province, the study selected the panel data of petrochemical industry from 2006 to 2015 in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province, from the perspective of total factor index, to measure the carbon emission efficiency and its dynamic change of the whole and interregional petrochemical industry in the Province by three-stage DEA model, and the carbon emission levels of regional petrochemical industry were classified and compared by cluster analysis. The empirical results show that the carbon emission efficiency of Jiangsu petrochemical industry is on the rise, but there is still a gap with the optimal level of efficiency; the distribution of carbon emission efficiency shows the pattern of"South-Jiangsu > Middle-Jiangsu >North-Jiangsu", the difference of external environment are decreasing, the distribution imbalance situation has been improved year by year. To improve efficiency of carbon emissions, Jiangsu can speed up the construction of petrochemical industrial cluster, develop differential carbon reduction strategies, strengthen regional exchanges and cooperation, promote the orderly transfer of excess petrochemical production capacity in the future.
引文
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[18]刘竹,耿涌,薛冰,等.城市能源消费碳排放核算方法[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1325-1330.Liu Zhu,Geng Yong,Xue Bing,et al.A calculation method of CO2emission from urban energy consumption[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1325-1330.
[2]Mielnik O,Goldemberg J.Communication of the evolution of the“carbonization index”in developing countries[J].Energy Policy,1999,27(5):307-308.
[3]Kaya Y,Yokobori K.Environment,Energy,and Economy:Strategies for Sustainability[M].United Nations University Press,1997.
[4]姜国刚,顾婷婷,赵杨.非线性视角下中国碳排放的影响因素与区域差异分析[J].软科学,2016,30(7):53-57.Jiang Guogang,Gu Tingting,Zhao Yang.Study on the carbon emission influence factors and regional difference in China from the perspective of nonlinearity[J].Soft Science,2016,30(7):53-57.
[5]孙海燕,耿成轩.中国区域碳排放效率时空异质性及收敛检验[J].统计与决策,2017(23):91-95.Sun Haiyan,Geng Chengxuan.Spatial heterogeneity and convergence test of China’s regional carbon emission efficiency[J].Statistics&Decision,2017(23):91-95.
[6]王凯,邵海琴,周婷婷,等.中国旅游业碳排放效率及其空间关联特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(3):473-482.Wang Kai,Shao Haiqin,Zhou Tingting,et al.A study on carbon emissions efficiency of tourism and its spatial correlation characteristics in China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2018,27(3):473-482.
[7]Watanabe M,Tanaka K.Efficiency analysis of Chinese industry:a directional distance function approach[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(12):6323-6331.
[8]Sueyoshi T,Yuan Y.Measuring energy usage and sustainability development in Asian nations by DEA intermediate approach[J].Journal of Economic Structures,2018,7(1):6.
[9]Zha Y,Zhao L,Bian Y.Measuring regional efficiency of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in China:a chance constrained DEA approach[J].Computers&Operations Research,2016,66(2):351-361.
[10]陈晓红,易国栋,刘翔.基于三阶段SBM-DEA模型的中国区域碳排放效率研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(3):115-122.Chen Xiaohong,Yi Guodong,Liu Xiang.Analysis of the low carbon economy efficiency in China:based on a method of three stage SBM-DEA model with undesirable outputs[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2017,26(3):115-122.
[11]戴志敏,曾宇航,郭露.华东地区工业生态效率面板数据研究:基于整合超效率DEA模型分析[J].软科学,2016,30(7):35-39.Dai Zhimin,Zeng Yuhang,Guo Lu.Study of the industrial eco-efficiency with the panel data in east China:based on the super efficiency DEA model[J].Soft Science,2016,30(7):35-39.
[12]卢新海,匡兵,李菁.碳排放约束下耕地利用效率的区域差异及其影响因素[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(4):657-668.Lu Xinhai,Kuang Bing,Li Jing.Regional differences and its influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency under carbon emission constraint[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(4):657-668.
[13]张坚.长三角石化产业碳排放绩效区域分异的动态实证研究[J].社会科学,2016(6):54-62.Zhang Jian.Dynamic empirical research on regional disparity of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Social Science,2016(6):54-62.
[14]张建华,鞠晓峰.基于LMDI的中国石化产业CO2排放的解耦分析[J].湖南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,39(10):98-102.Zhang Jianhua,Ju Xiaofeng.Decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emission by Chinese petrochemical industry based on LMDI[J].Journal of Hunan University:Natural Science Edition,2012,39(10):98-102.
[15]丁浩,代汝峰.区域产业集群碳排放弹性分析与路径选择的实证研究:以山东省石化产业集群为例[J].华东经济管理,2013(8):40-43.Ding Hao,Dai Rufeng.The study of elastic analysis and countermeasures of carbon emission of regional petrochemical industry clusters:a case study of the petrochemical industry in Shandong[J].East China Economic Management,2013(8):40-43.
[16]骆瑞玲,范体军,李淑霞,等.我国石化行业碳排放权分配研究[J].中国软科学,2014(2):171-178.Luo Ruiling,Fan Tijun,Li Shuxia,et al.The study on carbon emission permits allocation in China's petrochemical industry[J].China Soft Science,2014(2):171-178.
[17]Fried H O,Lovell C A K,Schmidt S S,et al.Accounting for environmental effects and statistical noise in data envelopment analysis[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,2002,17(1/2):157-174.
[18]刘竹,耿涌,薛冰,等.城市能源消费碳排放核算方法[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1325-1330.Liu Zhu,Geng Yong,Xue Bing,et al.A calculation method of CO2emission from urban energy consumption[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1325-1330.