基于ESDA和Markov的土地利用时空格局演变
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摘要
开展区域土地利用时空格局演变研究,掌握土地开发利用的现状和趋势,为开展土地利用结构优化方案评价探索有效的方法。本文以华池县土地利用总体规划(2010-2020)为研究对象,以规划调整完善时点(2014年底)为研究时点,运用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)和马尔科夫链(Markov)研究土地利用时空格局演变趋势。研究结果表明:(1)华池县2009-2014年土地利用程度不断提高,2015-2020年呈现下降趋势;(2)华池县土地利用程度存在显著的正空间自相关性,空间集聚分布特征日趋明显;(3)华池县土地利用等级在较低利用级与中等利用级之间的演变频繁,其他利用级基本稳定。研究结论为:(1)在规划调整完善中,华池县需适度调整控制指标,优化土地利用结构布局;(2)将ESDA和Markov二者结合使用是开展土地利用结构优化方案评价的理想方法。
The purpose of this study is to carry out a research on the temporal and spatial patterns of land use, to grasp the status and trends of land development and utilization, and to explore effective methods for the evaluation of land use structure optimization. The exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and Markov models were used in this paper to study the temporal and spatial patterns of land use, taking the Land Use Planning(2010-2020) of Huachi County as the research object, with the end of2014 as the time-point in which year the planning was adjusted perfectly. The results showed some details as followed: the land use degree in Huachi county was increasing continuously from2009 to 2014, whereas a downward trend showed up since 2015 till 2020. There were observably positive spatial auto-correlation in the land use degree of Huachi County, and the spatial clustering distribution was becoming more and more obvious. The land use rank of Huachi County changed very frequently between the lower utilization level and the middle utilization level, while other levels basically maintained stable. The results show that the control indexes are needed to be adjusted appropriately, so does the land use structural layout in the planning adjustment of Huachi county, what's more, the combination of ESDA and Markov is an ideal method to evaluate the optimization scheme of the land use structure.
The purpose of this study is to carry out a research on the temporal and spatial patterns of land use, to grasp the status and trends of land development and utilization, and to explore effective methods for the evaluation of land use structure optimization. The exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and Markov models were used in this paper to study the temporal and spatial patterns of land use, taking the Land Use Planning(2010-2020) of Huachi County as the research object, with the end of2014 as the time-point in which year the planning was adjusted perfectly. The results showed some details as followed: the land use degree in Huachi county was increasing continuously from2009 to 2014, whereas a downward trend showed up since 2015 till 2020. There were observably positive spatial auto-correlation in the land use degree of Huachi County, and the spatial clustering distribution was becoming more and more obvious. The land use rank of Huachi County changed very frequently between the lower utilization level and the middle utilization level, while other levels basically maintained stable. The results show that the control indexes are needed to be adjusted appropriately, so does the land use structural layout in the planning adjustment of Huachi county, what's more, the combination of ESDA and Markov is an ideal method to evaluate the optimization scheme of the land use structure.
引文
[1]宁秀红,郭龙,张海涛.基于空间自回归和地理加权回归模型的不同尺度下土地利用程度研究[J].华中农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(4):48-54.
[2]黄华富,戴文远,苏木兰,等.海岛生态脆弱区土地利用程度空间格局演化[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,32(2):92-100.
[3]庄大方,刘纪远.中国土地利用程度的区域分异模型研究[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):105-111.
[4]姜红涛,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,等.土库曼斯坦马雷绿洲土地利用程度的遥感与GIS分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,15(5):775-782.
[5]崔敬涛,吴国平,范庆亚,等.基于ESDA的费县土地利用时空演变研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,(1):240-245.
[6]杨玉婷,石培基,潘竞虎.干旱内陆河流域土地利用程度差异分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(2):102-107.
[7]宁秀红,郭龙,张海涛.基于空间自回归和地理加权回归模型的不同尺度下土地利用程度研究[J].华中农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(4):48-54.
[8]董顺舟,赵宇鸾,李秀彬.基于地形梯度的高原山地区土地利用格局时空特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):213-222.
[9]秦富仓,周佳宁,刘佳,等.内蒙古多伦县土地利用动态变化及驱动力[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):31-37.
[10]宋戈,王越.松嫩高平原土地利用格局变化时空分异[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(18):225-233.
[11]李慧,王云鹏,李岩,等.珠江三角洲土地利用变化空间自相关分析[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(12):1879-1885.
[12]李丁,冶小梅,汪胜兰,等.基于ESDA-GIS的县域经济空间差异演化及驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):31-36.
[13]王千,金晓斌,周寅康,等.县级粮食生产效率空间聚集格局演变分析[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(3):234-238.
[14]薛亮,任志远.基于空间马尔科夫链的关中地区生态安全时空演变分析[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(1):114-118.
[15]王耕,王嘉丽,龚丽妍,等.基于GIS-Markov区域生态安全时空演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):958-963.
[16]宋文,吴克宁,刘浩然,等.基于地理空间适宜性指数自相关的农村居民点整理分区[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(19):249-257.
[2]黄华富,戴文远,苏木兰,等.海岛生态脆弱区土地利用程度空间格局演化[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,32(2):92-100.
[3]庄大方,刘纪远.中国土地利用程度的区域分异模型研究[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):105-111.
[4]姜红涛,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,等.土库曼斯坦马雷绿洲土地利用程度的遥感与GIS分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,15(5):775-782.
[5]崔敬涛,吴国平,范庆亚,等.基于ESDA的费县土地利用时空演变研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,(1):240-245.
[6]杨玉婷,石培基,潘竞虎.干旱内陆河流域土地利用程度差异分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(2):102-107.
[7]宁秀红,郭龙,张海涛.基于空间自回归和地理加权回归模型的不同尺度下土地利用程度研究[J].华中农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(4):48-54.
[8]董顺舟,赵宇鸾,李秀彬.基于地形梯度的高原山地区土地利用格局时空特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):213-222.
[9]秦富仓,周佳宁,刘佳,等.内蒙古多伦县土地利用动态变化及驱动力[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):31-37.
[10]宋戈,王越.松嫩高平原土地利用格局变化时空分异[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(18):225-233.
[11]李慧,王云鹏,李岩,等.珠江三角洲土地利用变化空间自相关分析[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(12):1879-1885.
[12]李丁,冶小梅,汪胜兰,等.基于ESDA-GIS的县域经济空间差异演化及驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):31-36.
[13]王千,金晓斌,周寅康,等.县级粮食生产效率空间聚集格局演变分析[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(3):234-238.
[14]薛亮,任志远.基于空间马尔科夫链的关中地区生态安全时空演变分析[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(1):114-118.
[15]王耕,王嘉丽,龚丽妍,等.基于GIS-Markov区域生态安全时空演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):958-963.
[16]宋文,吴克宁,刘浩然,等.基于地理空间适宜性指数自相关的农村居民点整理分区[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(19):249-257.