考虑出行者异质性的绿色出行行为研究
|
摘要
交通限行政策和推广纯电动汽车是实现绿色交通的重要途径.为定量分析出行者环保意识对绿色出行行为的影响,基于出行者环保态度和环保行为,利用潜在类别分析模型对出行者进行潜在类别划分;将出行者的潜在类别作为解释变量带入双变量Probit模型中,分析出行者潜在类别和其他因素对私家车限行政策赞同度和纯电动车意愿购买的影响.研究结果表明:基于出行者环保态度和环保行为,出行者可划分为环境友好者、环境中立者、伪环境友好者三类群体;在出行者绿色出行行为中,带入出行者类别能够显著提高模型的拟合度;出行者潜在类别对绿色交通出行行为具有显著影响.
Restricting privates car use and promoting pure electric vehicles use are two important ways to realize green travel in China cities.In order to analyze the impact of travelers' environmental awareness on green travel,travelers were categorized with the latent class analysis based on travelers' attitude towards environment and traveling behaviors.Then travelers' latent class was introduced into the traditional bi-variate probit model as explanatory independent variables.And the impact of travelers' latent class on the approval of private car restriction policies and the purchase intention of pure electric vehicles were analyzed.The results show that according to their attitude towards environment and traveling behaviors,travelers can be categorized into three latent classes:the environmentalist,the non-environmentalist,the pseudo-environmentalist.There is a higher degree of fitting when incorporating travelers' latent class into the bivariate probit model.And travelers' latent classes have great impacts on their green traveling choice.
Restricting privates car use and promoting pure electric vehicles use are two important ways to realize green travel in China cities.In order to analyze the impact of travelers' environmental awareness on green travel,travelers were categorized with the latent class analysis based on travelers' attitude towards environment and traveling behaviors.Then travelers' latent class was introduced into the traditional bi-variate probit model as explanatory independent variables.And the impact of travelers' latent class on the approval of private car restriction policies and the purchase intention of pure electric vehicles were analyzed.The results show that according to their attitude towards environment and traveling behaviors,travelers can be categorized into three latent classes:the environmentalist,the non-environmentalist,the pseudo-environmentalist.There is a higher degree of fitting when incorporating travelers' latent class into the bivariate probit model.And travelers' latent classes have great impacts on their green traveling choice.
引文
[1] 国际能源署.中国能源展望2017 [M].北京:石油工业出版社,2017.
[2] TRAIN K.A structured logit model of auto ownership and mode choice [J].The Review of Economic Studies,1980,47(2):357- 370.
[3] CHENG Y H,CHEN S Y.Perceived accessibility,mobility,and connectivity of public transportation systems [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,77:386- 403.
[4] CHENG Y H,LIU K C.Evaluating bicycle-transit users' perceptions of intermodal inconvenience [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2012,46(10):1690- 1706.
[5] BHAT C R.An endogenous segmentation mode choice model with an application to intercity travel [J].Transportation Science,1997,31(1):34- 48.
[6] WEN C H,LAI S C.Latent class models of international air carrier choice [J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2010,46(2):211- 221.
[7] YAZDANPANAH M,HOSSEINLOU M H.The influence of personality traits on airport public transport access mode choice:a hybrid latent class choice modeling approach [J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2016,55:147- 163.
[8] HURTUBIA R,NGUYEN M H,GLERUM A,et al.Integrating psychometric indicators in latent class choice models [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,64:135- 146.
[9] MOTOAKI Y,DAZIANO R A.A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,75:217- 230.
[10] MONIRUZZAMAN M,FARBER S.What drives sustainable student travel?mode choice determinants in the greater Toronto area [J].International Journal of Sustainable Transportation,2017,12(5):367- 379.
[11] XIA T,ZHANG Y,BRAUNACK-MAYER A,et al.Public attitudes toward encouraging sustainable transportation:an Australian case study [J].International Journal of Sustainable Transportation,2017,11(8):593- 601.
[12] 邱皓政.潜在类别模型的原理与技术 [M].北京:教育科学出版社,2008.
[13] LIN T H,DAYTON C M.Model selection information criteria for non-nested latent class models [J].Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics,1997,22(3):249- 264.
[14] FILIPPINI M,GREENE W H,KUMAR N,et al.A note on the different interpretation of the correlation parameters in the bivariate probit and the recursive bivariate probit [J].Economics Letters,2018,167:104- 107.
[15] ROBERTS J,GURLEEN P,ROSEMARY H.Do environmental concerns affect commuting choices?:hybrid choice modelling with household survey data [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series A (Statistics in Society),2018,181(1):299- 320.
[16] DAZIANO R A,BOLDUC D.Incorporating pro-environmental preferences towards green automobile technologies through a Bayesian hybrid choice model [J].Transportmetrica A:Transport Science,2011,9(1):74- 106.
[2] TRAIN K.A structured logit model of auto ownership and mode choice [J].The Review of Economic Studies,1980,47(2):357- 370.
[3] CHENG Y H,CHEN S Y.Perceived accessibility,mobility,and connectivity of public transportation systems [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,77:386- 403.
[4] CHENG Y H,LIU K C.Evaluating bicycle-transit users' perceptions of intermodal inconvenience [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2012,46(10):1690- 1706.
[5] BHAT C R.An endogenous segmentation mode choice model with an application to intercity travel [J].Transportation Science,1997,31(1):34- 48.
[6] WEN C H,LAI S C.Latent class models of international air carrier choice [J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2010,46(2):211- 221.
[7] YAZDANPANAH M,HOSSEINLOU M H.The influence of personality traits on airport public transport access mode choice:a hybrid latent class choice modeling approach [J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2016,55:147- 163.
[8] HURTUBIA R,NGUYEN M H,GLERUM A,et al.Integrating psychometric indicators in latent class choice models [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,64:135- 146.
[9] MOTOAKI Y,DAZIANO R A.A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand [J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,75:217- 230.
[10] MONIRUZZAMAN M,FARBER S.What drives sustainable student travel?mode choice determinants in the greater Toronto area [J].International Journal of Sustainable Transportation,2017,12(5):367- 379.
[11] XIA T,ZHANG Y,BRAUNACK-MAYER A,et al.Public attitudes toward encouraging sustainable transportation:an Australian case study [J].International Journal of Sustainable Transportation,2017,11(8):593- 601.
[12] 邱皓政.潜在类别模型的原理与技术 [M].北京:教育科学出版社,2008.
[13] LIN T H,DAYTON C M.Model selection information criteria for non-nested latent class models [J].Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics,1997,22(3):249- 264.
[14] FILIPPINI M,GREENE W H,KUMAR N,et al.A note on the different interpretation of the correlation parameters in the bivariate probit and the recursive bivariate probit [J].Economics Letters,2018,167:104- 107.
[15] ROBERTS J,GURLEEN P,ROSEMARY H.Do environmental concerns affect commuting choices?:hybrid choice modelling with household survey data [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series A (Statistics in Society),2018,181(1):299- 320.
[16] DAZIANO R A,BOLDUC D.Incorporating pro-environmental preferences towards green automobile technologies through a Bayesian hybrid choice model [J].Transportmetrica A:Transport Science,2011,9(1):74- 106.