基于有限理性的船型方案优选
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摘要
在考虑决策者的有限理性的基础上解决船型方案优选问题.首先,详细分析了船型方案优化和优选问题的特殊性及当前研究中待解决的问题;其次,基于人的有限理性的特点,引入偏好设计理论和前景理论,从数学角度定性、定量描述决策者的决策偏好和决策心理;基于偏好设计理论,生成表征设计者偏好的船型方案Pareto解集,利用前景理论编辑决策者的决策风险偏好,基于Pareto解集进行船型方案优选;再次,以理性数值分析为参考,基于决策者的预期效用对数值分析结果进行修正,得出符合实际决策情景的最佳船型方案.最后,通过算例分析验证了方法的有效性.
Based on the limited rationality of decision maker, a ship scheme optimization and selection model was proposed. Firstly, the particularity of the mentioned problem and the problems to be solved in the future research were analyzed in detail. Secondly, based on characteristic of limited rationality, the preference design theory and prospect theory were introduced. The decision maker's preference and decision-making psychology was described quan titatively and qualitatively by using mathematical procedure. Based on the preference design theory, the Pareto solutions which represented designer's preferences were produced, and the decision-making risk preference of decision-makers was edited by using the prospect theory, the ship form scheme was optimized based on Pareto. Then, with reference to rational numerical analysis, the numerical analysis results were revised based on the expected utility of the decision maker to produce the optimal ship type scheme which is in line with the actual decision-making situation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by an example analysis.
Based on the limited rationality of decision maker, a ship scheme optimization and selection model was proposed. Firstly, the particularity of the mentioned problem and the problems to be solved in the future research were analyzed in detail. Secondly, based on characteristic of limited rationality, the preference design theory and prospect theory were introduced. The decision maker's preference and decision-making psychology was described quan titatively and qualitatively by using mathematical procedure. Based on the preference design theory, the Pareto solutions which represented designer's preferences were produced, and the decision-making risk preference of decision-makers was edited by using the prospect theory, the ship form scheme was optimized based on Pareto. Then, with reference to rational numerical analysis, the numerical analysis results were revised based on the expected utility of the decision maker to produce the optimal ship type scheme which is in line with the actual decision-making situation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by an example analysis.
引文
[1] 李冬琴,蒋志勇,杨永祥.基于自适应加权的船舶多目标系统优化[J].中国造船,2012,53(4):75-83.LI D Q,JIANG Z Y,YANG Y X.Multidisciplinary and multi-objective design optimization based on adaptive weighted-sum method[J].Shipbuilding of China,2012,53(4):75-83.(in Chinese)
[2] 谢新连.船舶运输经营与管理[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2018.
[3] 裘泳铭,吴善勤,顾敏童.正交设计法在运输船舶主尺度优选中的应用[J].上海交通大学学报,1993,27(6):75-82.QIU Y M,WU S Q,GU M T.Application of orthogonal design method in optimizing main dimensions of cargo[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,1993,27 (6):75-82.(in Chinese)
[4] 肖青,胡豪,李晶.基于CRITIC-TOPSIS法的邮船船型选择[J].上海海事大学学报,2018,39(3):53-56.XIAO Q,HU H,LI J.Selection of cruise ship type based on CRITIC-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2018,39(3):53-56.(in Chinese)
[5] 田严波,叶敏,胡方珍,等.改进DEA方法在船型多方案优选中的应用研究[J].船舶工程,2016,38(S1):23-27.TIAN Y B,YE M,HU F Z,et al.Research on the application of improved DEA method for the optimal choice of ship forms[J],2016,38(S1):23-27 (in Chinese)
[6] 张勇慧,林焰,纪卓尚.基于AHP的运输船舶多目标模糊综合评判[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(11):129-133.ZHANG Y H,LIN Y,JI Z S.Multi-objects fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of seagoing cargo ship by AHP[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2002 (11):129-133.(in Chinese)
[7] 桑松,林焰,纪卓尚.基于神经网络的船型要素数学建模研究[J].计算机工程,2002,28(9):238-240.SANG S,LIN Y,JI Z S.Study of math modeling on ship’s principal particulars based on netural network[J].Computer Engineering,2002,28(9):238-240.(in Chinese)
[8] 赵瑞嘉,谢新连,李猛,等.基于任务要求的海警船船型论证[J].上海海事大学学报,2017,38(1):16-20.ZHAO R J,XIE X L,LI M,et al.Ship type evaluation of coastguard ships under mission requirements[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2017,38(1):16-20.(in Chinese)
[9] 汤筱笙,顾敏童,薛茂根.船舶主尺度技术经济分析的模糊数学规划方法[J].上海交通大学学报,1995,29(5):20-25.TANG X S,GU M T,XUE M G.Application of fuzzy mathematical programming for techno-economical analysis of ship’s main dimensions[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,1995,29(5):20-25.(in Chinese)
[10] LI X B.Multiobjective optimization and multiattribute decision making study for ship’s principal parameters in conceptual design[J].Journal of Ship Research,2009,53(2):83-92.
[11] 侯远杭,黄胜,胡玉龙,等.基于相对熵排序的舰船总体方案评价方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2012,46(8):1218-1222.HOU Y H,HUANG S,HU Y L,et al.Evaluation of warship based on relative entropy method[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012,46(8):1218-1222.(in Chinese)
[12] 金雁,赵耀.基于改进蚁群算法的船舶主尺度优化[J].华中科技大学学报,2008,36(11):99-102.JIN Y,ZHAO Y.Optimizaiton of ship principal parameters with improved ant colony algorithm[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2008,36(11):99-102.(in Chinese)
[13] 杨路春,李学斌,丁明君,等.多目标遗传算法和决策在船型论证中的应用[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2012,33(12):1459-1464.YANG L C,LI X B,DING M J,et al.Application of multi-objective genetic algorithm and decision-making skills in ship form evaluation[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2012,33(12):1459-1464.(in Chinese)
[14] 侯磊.基于多目标粒子群算法的船舶主尺度优化设计研究[J].船舶力学,2011,15(7):784-790.HOU L.Application of multi-objective particle swarm optimization in study of ship’s principal parameters[J].Journal of Ship Mechanics,2011,15(7):784-790.(in Chinese)
[15] 王玉娟,黄胜,方馨悦.基于模拟退火算法的航母总体要素寻优[J].船舶力学,2013,17(10):1126-1132.WANG Y J,HUANG S,FANG X Y.Element optimization of aircraft design based on simulated annealing algorithm[J].Journal of Ship Mechanics,2013,17(10):1126-1132.(in Chinese)
[16] GASPAR H M,RHODES D H,ROSS A,et al.Addressing complexity aspects in conceptual ship design:a systems engineering approach[J].Journal of Ship Production & Design,2012,28(4):145-159.
[17] 杨建池,王运吉,钱大庆,等.基于前景理论的决策模型研究[J].系统仿真学报,2009,21(9):2469-2472.YAND J C,WANG Y J,QIAN D Q.Research on prospect theory-based decision model[J].Journal of System Simulation,2009,21(9):2469-2472.(in Chinese)
[18] KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A.Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[19] 王重鸣,陆型海.群体决策判断的心理学研究[J].应用心理学,1992,7(2):17-21.WANG C M,LU X H.Some psychological studies on group judgment and decision-making[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology,1992,7(2):17-21.(in Chinese)
[20] 刘寅东.船舶设计原理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2010.
[21] MESSAC A.Physical programming:effective optimization for computational design[J].American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics ( AIAA )Journal,1996,34(1):149-158.
[22] TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Advances in prospect theory:cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1992,9:195-230.
[23] 王文全,王超,黄胜,等.大型舰船主尺度方案生成与优选[J].上海交通大学学报,2013,47(6):917-922.WANG W Q,WANG C,HUANG S.Scheme generation and optimal selection of principal dimensions for large naval ships[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2013,47(6):917-922.(in Chinese)
[24] 刘莉,邢超,龙腾.基于物理规划的弹道多目标优化[J].北京理工大学学报,2013,33(4):357-362.LIU L,XING C,LONG T.Study of multi-objective trajectory optimization based on physical programming[J].Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology,2013,33(4):357-362.(in Chinese)
[25] 郝债柳,刘祖源,冯佰威.多目标优化算法在船舶多学科设计优化中的应用[J].中国造船,2014,55(3):53-63.HAO Z L,LIU Z Y,FENG B W.Application of multi-objective optimization algorithm in multidiciplinary optimization of ship design[J].Shipbuilding of China,2014,55(3):53-63.(in Chinese)
[26] MESSAC A,SUNDARAJ G.Physical programming’s ability to generate a well-distributed set of pareto points[C]// 41st Structures,Structural Dynamics,and Materials Conference and Exhibit,2000.
[2] 谢新连.船舶运输经营与管理[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2018.
[3] 裘泳铭,吴善勤,顾敏童.正交设计法在运输船舶主尺度优选中的应用[J].上海交通大学学报,1993,27(6):75-82.QIU Y M,WU S Q,GU M T.Application of orthogonal design method in optimizing main dimensions of cargo[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,1993,27 (6):75-82.(in Chinese)
[4] 肖青,胡豪,李晶.基于CRITIC-TOPSIS法的邮船船型选择[J].上海海事大学学报,2018,39(3):53-56.XIAO Q,HU H,LI J.Selection of cruise ship type based on CRITIC-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2018,39(3):53-56.(in Chinese)
[5] 田严波,叶敏,胡方珍,等.改进DEA方法在船型多方案优选中的应用研究[J].船舶工程,2016,38(S1):23-27.TIAN Y B,YE M,HU F Z,et al.Research on the application of improved DEA method for the optimal choice of ship forms[J],2016,38(S1):23-27 (in Chinese)
[6] 张勇慧,林焰,纪卓尚.基于AHP的运输船舶多目标模糊综合评判[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(11):129-133.ZHANG Y H,LIN Y,JI Z S.Multi-objects fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of seagoing cargo ship by AHP[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2002 (11):129-133.(in Chinese)
[7] 桑松,林焰,纪卓尚.基于神经网络的船型要素数学建模研究[J].计算机工程,2002,28(9):238-240.SANG S,LIN Y,JI Z S.Study of math modeling on ship’s principal particulars based on netural network[J].Computer Engineering,2002,28(9):238-240.(in Chinese)
[8] 赵瑞嘉,谢新连,李猛,等.基于任务要求的海警船船型论证[J].上海海事大学学报,2017,38(1):16-20.ZHAO R J,XIE X L,LI M,et al.Ship type evaluation of coastguard ships under mission requirements[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2017,38(1):16-20.(in Chinese)
[9] 汤筱笙,顾敏童,薛茂根.船舶主尺度技术经济分析的模糊数学规划方法[J].上海交通大学学报,1995,29(5):20-25.TANG X S,GU M T,XUE M G.Application of fuzzy mathematical programming for techno-economical analysis of ship’s main dimensions[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,1995,29(5):20-25.(in Chinese)
[10] LI X B.Multiobjective optimization and multiattribute decision making study for ship’s principal parameters in conceptual design[J].Journal of Ship Research,2009,53(2):83-92.
[11] 侯远杭,黄胜,胡玉龙,等.基于相对熵排序的舰船总体方案评价方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2012,46(8):1218-1222.HOU Y H,HUANG S,HU Y L,et al.Evaluation of warship based on relative entropy method[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012,46(8):1218-1222.(in Chinese)
[12] 金雁,赵耀.基于改进蚁群算法的船舶主尺度优化[J].华中科技大学学报,2008,36(11):99-102.JIN Y,ZHAO Y.Optimizaiton of ship principal parameters with improved ant colony algorithm[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2008,36(11):99-102.(in Chinese)
[13] 杨路春,李学斌,丁明君,等.多目标遗传算法和决策在船型论证中的应用[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2012,33(12):1459-1464.YANG L C,LI X B,DING M J,et al.Application of multi-objective genetic algorithm and decision-making skills in ship form evaluation[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2012,33(12):1459-1464.(in Chinese)
[14] 侯磊.基于多目标粒子群算法的船舶主尺度优化设计研究[J].船舶力学,2011,15(7):784-790.HOU L.Application of multi-objective particle swarm optimization in study of ship’s principal parameters[J].Journal of Ship Mechanics,2011,15(7):784-790.(in Chinese)
[15] 王玉娟,黄胜,方馨悦.基于模拟退火算法的航母总体要素寻优[J].船舶力学,2013,17(10):1126-1132.WANG Y J,HUANG S,FANG X Y.Element optimization of aircraft design based on simulated annealing algorithm[J].Journal of Ship Mechanics,2013,17(10):1126-1132.(in Chinese)
[16] GASPAR H M,RHODES D H,ROSS A,et al.Addressing complexity aspects in conceptual ship design:a systems engineering approach[J].Journal of Ship Production & Design,2012,28(4):145-159.
[17] 杨建池,王运吉,钱大庆,等.基于前景理论的决策模型研究[J].系统仿真学报,2009,21(9):2469-2472.YAND J C,WANG Y J,QIAN D Q.Research on prospect theory-based decision model[J].Journal of System Simulation,2009,21(9):2469-2472.(in Chinese)
[18] KAHNEMAN D,TVERSKY A.Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[19] 王重鸣,陆型海.群体决策判断的心理学研究[J].应用心理学,1992,7(2):17-21.WANG C M,LU X H.Some psychological studies on group judgment and decision-making[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology,1992,7(2):17-21.(in Chinese)
[20] 刘寅东.船舶设计原理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2010.
[21] MESSAC A.Physical programming:effective optimization for computational design[J].American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics ( AIAA )Journal,1996,34(1):149-158.
[22] TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Advances in prospect theory:cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1992,9:195-230.
[23] 王文全,王超,黄胜,等.大型舰船主尺度方案生成与优选[J].上海交通大学学报,2013,47(6):917-922.WANG W Q,WANG C,HUANG S.Scheme generation and optimal selection of principal dimensions for large naval ships[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2013,47(6):917-922.(in Chinese)
[24] 刘莉,邢超,龙腾.基于物理规划的弹道多目标优化[J].北京理工大学学报,2013,33(4):357-362.LIU L,XING C,LONG T.Study of multi-objective trajectory optimization based on physical programming[J].Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology,2013,33(4):357-362.(in Chinese)
[25] 郝债柳,刘祖源,冯佰威.多目标优化算法在船舶多学科设计优化中的应用[J].中国造船,2014,55(3):53-63.HAO Z L,LIU Z Y,FENG B W.Application of multi-objective optimization algorithm in multidiciplinary optimization of ship design[J].Shipbuilding of China,2014,55(3):53-63.(in Chinese)
[26] MESSAC A,SUNDARAJ G.Physical programming’s ability to generate a well-distributed set of pareto points[C]// 41st Structures,Structural Dynamics,and Materials Conference and Exhibit,2000.