基础设施影响经济增长及收入差距的机理研究——新结构经济学框架下分工视域的理论探究和跨国数据的实证检验
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摘要
基于新结构经济学的理论框架,将基础设施分为软基础设施和硬基础设施,从分工视域探析基础设施影响经济增长及收入差距的机理:在现代经济增长的初始阶段,需要一定的软基础设施促进技术创新并保证分工的形成,分工的演进则需要改善硬基础设施以扩大物理上的市场规模;随着经济增长,软基础设施和硬基础设施都需要不断完善,协同促进社会分工体系的优化发展和经济增长,实现可持续的内生经济增长;发展中国家由于技术创新的外生性,不仅在现代经济增长的初始阶段,而且在其经济赶超的全过程中,软基础设施的作用都比硬基础设施更为显著。基础设施的差异将导致经济增长的异质,进而产生收入差距;由于软基础设施的差异更加难以消除,软基础设施对收入差距的影响更为显著。基于139个国家和地区1996—2014年数据的实证分析结果较好地支持了上述理论分析:软基础设施具有更为显著的经济增长促进效应,OECD国家的软硬基础设施均显著促进经济增长,而非OECD国家只有软基础设施显著促进经济增长;基础设施差距越大则人均收入差距越大,非OECD国家软基础设施对收入差距的影响更大。发展中国家的经济发展应更加重视软基础设施建设,但软基础设施的完善不能以西方价值体系为标准,而应基于国情以有效促进分工的形成和演进为标准。
Based on the perspective of new structural economics,this paper divided the infrastructure into soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure and examined the mechanism of the impact of infrastructure construction on economic growth and narrowing the cross-country income gap from labor division viewpoint: At the initial stage of modern economic growth,certain soft infrastructure is needed to boost technical innovation and to ensure labor division,the evolution of the labor division needs to improve hard infrastructure to enlarge market scale physically,furthermore,with the economic growth,both soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure need to be continuously improved to cooperatively boost optimized development of social labor division system and economic growth so as to realize sustainably endogeneously economic growth. In developing countries, because of technical innovation externality,the action of soft infrastructure is more significant than that of hard infrastructure not only in the initial stage of economic growth but also in the whole process of catching up and surpassing. The difference of infrastructure results in the heterogeneity of economic growth and further produces income gap. Because the difference of soft infrastructure is more difficult to be eliminated,the impact of soft infrastructure on income gap is more obvious. The empirical analysis results based on the data of 139 countries and regions during 1996-2014 support above theoretical analysis. Soft infrastructure has more significant boosting effect on economic growth,soft and hard infrastructure plays a significant role in economic growth in the OECD countries,however,in non-OECD countries,only the soft infrastructure plays a significant role.The larger the gap of infrastructure is,the larger per capita income gap is,and the impact of soft infrastructure on income gap in non-OECD countries is larger. The economic development in developing countries should attach more importance to soft infrastructure,however,the improvement of soft infrastructure should not take western value system as standard but should be based on China's reality to take the promotion of formation and evolution of effective labor division as standard.
Based on the perspective of new structural economics,this paper divided the infrastructure into soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure and examined the mechanism of the impact of infrastructure construction on economic growth and narrowing the cross-country income gap from labor division viewpoint: At the initial stage of modern economic growth,certain soft infrastructure is needed to boost technical innovation and to ensure labor division,the evolution of the labor division needs to improve hard infrastructure to enlarge market scale physically,furthermore,with the economic growth,both soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure need to be continuously improved to cooperatively boost optimized development of social labor division system and economic growth so as to realize sustainably endogeneously economic growth. In developing countries, because of technical innovation externality,the action of soft infrastructure is more significant than that of hard infrastructure not only in the initial stage of economic growth but also in the whole process of catching up and surpassing. The difference of infrastructure results in the heterogeneity of economic growth and further produces income gap. Because the difference of soft infrastructure is more difficult to be eliminated,the impact of soft infrastructure on income gap is more obvious. The empirical analysis results based on the data of 139 countries and regions during 1996-2014 support above theoretical analysis. Soft infrastructure has more significant boosting effect on economic growth,soft and hard infrastructure plays a significant role in economic growth in the OECD countries,however,in non-OECD countries,only the soft infrastructure plays a significant role.The larger the gap of infrastructure is,the larger per capita income gap is,and the impact of soft infrastructure on income gap in non-OECD countries is larger. The economic development in developing countries should attach more importance to soft infrastructure,however,the improvement of soft infrastructure should not take western value system as standard but should be based on China's reality to take the promotion of formation and evolution of effective labor division as standard.
引文
[1]罗伯特·巴罗,夏威尔·萨拉-伊-马丁.经济增长[M].2版.夏俊,译.上海:格致出版社、上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2010.
[2]THE WORLD BANK.The growth report:Strategies for sustained growth and inclusive development[R].Washington,DC20433,2008.
[3]SOLOW R.M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[4]ROMER P.M.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[5]ROMER P.M.Endogenous technological change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):71-102.
[6]AGHION P,Howitt P.A model of growth through creative destruction[J].Econometrica,1992,60(2):323-351.
[7]FOFACK H.The idea of economic development:Views from Africa[R].WIDER Working Paper,2014-093.
[8]林毅夫.新结构经济学:反思经济发展与政策的理论框架[M].增订版.北京:北京大学出版社,2014.
[9]林毅夫,王燕.超越发展援助:在一个多极世界中重构发展合作新理念[M].宋琛,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2016.
[10]ROSENSTEIN-RODAN.Problems of industrialization of eastern and southeastern Europe[J].Economic Journal,1943,53:202-211.
[11]AGENOR P R,MORENODODSON B.Public infrastructure and growth:New channels and policy implications[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2016,59:1-59.
[12]CZERNICH N,OLIVER FALCK,TOBIAS KRETSCHMER,LUDGER WOESSMANN.Broadband infrastructure and economic growth[J].The Economic Journal,2011,121(5):505-532.
[13]DONALDSON D,HORNBECK R.Railroads and American economic growth:A“market access”approach[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(2):799-858.
[14]易斯塔什,费伊.当前关于基础设施政策的讨论[M]//斯彭斯,莱普泽.全球化与增长:后危机时代的含义.刘学梅,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2016.
[15]廖茂林,许召元,胡翠,喻崇武.基础设施投资是否还能促进经济增长?---基于1994-2016年省级面板数据的实证检验[J].管理世界,2018(5):63-73.
[16]CRESCENTIC R,RODRIGUZ-POSE A.Infrastructure and regional growth in the European Union[J].Papers in Regional Science,2012,91(3):487-513.
[17]BRICEO-GARMENDIA C,ESTACHE A,SHAFIK N.Infrastructure services in developing countries:Access,quality,costs,and policy reform[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.3468,2004.
[18]AUDRETSCH D B,HEGER D,VEITH T.Infrastructure and entrepreneurship[J].Small Business Economics,2015,44:219-230.
[19]BRENNEMAN A,KERF M.Infrastructure poverty linkages:A literature review[R].Washington DC:World Bank,2002.
[20]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗---兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.
[21]欧阳艳艳,张光南.基础设施供给与效率对“中国制造”的影响研究[J].管理世界,2016(8):97-109.
[22]范欣,宋冬林,赵新宇.基础设施建设打破了国内市场分割吗?[J].经济研究,2017(2):20-34.
[23]SHI Y,GUO S,SUN P.The role of infrastructure in China’s regional economic growth[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2017,49:26-41.
[24]LIN J Y.New structural economics:a framework for rethinking development[J].Policy Research Working Paper,2011,51(3):323-326.
[25]ACEMOGLU D,GALLEGO F A,ROBINSON J A.Institutions,human capital,and development[J].The Annual Review of Economics,2014(6):875-912.
[26]NORTH D C,THOMAS R P..The rise of the western world:A new economic history[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,1973.
[27]李佳洪.经济增长的基本源泉:分工[J].财经科学,1997(4):10-13.
[28]乔榛.马克思分工理论:发展马克思主义经济学的一种范式[J].经济学家,2005(3):36-42.
[29]斯密.国民财富的性质及其原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983.
[30]杨小凯.经济学---新古典与新兴古典框架[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[31]陈锦希.从“国际分工”到“科学技术是第一生产力”的新突破[J].理论学习月刊,1995(5):26-28.
[32]崔向阳.马克思的历史视角分工发展理论及其当代价值[J].当代经济研究,2011(8):10-18
[33]罗文花.马克思社会分工理论新析[J].马克思主义研究,2008(6):64-69.
[34]程锐,柳江.“新常态”视角下中国经济增长源泉的再思考[J].天津商业大学学报,2016,36(1):48-54.
[35]BARRO R J,JONG-WHA LEE.A new data set of educational attainment in the world,1950-2010[R].NBER Working Paper,No.15902,2010.
[36]HALL R E,JONES C I.Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker then others?[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(1):83-116.
[37]HSIEH C T,KLENOW P J.Development accounting[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2010,2(1):207-223.
[38]樊纲,王小鲁,马光荣.中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011(9):4-16.
[39]黄新飞,舒元,徐裕敏.制度距离与跨国收入差距[J].经济研究,2013(9):4-16.
[40]黄新飞,关楠,翟爱梅.遗传距离对跨国收入差距的影响研究:理论和中国的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1127-1146.
[41]张中元.东道国制度质量、双边投资协议与中国对外直接投资---基于面板门限回归模型的实证分析[J].南方经济,2013(4):49-62.
[42]张欢,徐康宁,孙文远.城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(5):40-58.
[43]SACHSJ,胡永泰,杨小凯.经济改革和宪政转轨[J].经济学(季刊),2003,2(4):961-988.
(1)其中8个是西欧周边的欧洲国家或者石油生产国,其经济增长得益于与发达国家原本微小的收入差距或优越的石油禀赋,其他5个经济体则是日本和亚洲“四小龙”(林毅夫,2014)。
(1)这里这样表述,并不是说在分工形成过程中硬基础设施不起作用、在分工演进过程中软基础设施不起作用,而是强调起主导作用的因素:在硬基础设施条件差异不大的情况下,软基础设施对分工形成的影响占据主导地位;在新的分工演进之初,更需要硬基础设施为市场规模的扩大提供保障,以促进新分工顺利融入社会分工体系。
(1)需要说明是,本文实证分析采用世界银行的全球治理指数衡量软基础设施水平,其取值范围为[-2.5,2.5],如果取对数会删掉大量有用样本,引起测量误差和估计偏误,故软基础设施指标不取对数。
(1)由于难以找到适当的软基础设施和硬基础设施的工具变量,选择充分考虑内生性问题的系统广义矩估计方法。
(2)从20世纪90年代开始,尤其是进入21世纪,信息成为影响经济发展的重要因素,移动蜂窝式电话的使用可以有效促进信息的交流和互换,降低交易费用,提高交易效率,促进经济增长;而其他硬基础设施的建设(如交通设施)在很多国家已经达到一定高度,其水平的提高幅度不大且在短期内对经济增长的促进作用有限。
[2]THE WORLD BANK.The growth report:Strategies for sustained growth and inclusive development[R].Washington,DC20433,2008.
[3]SOLOW R.M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[4]ROMER P.M.Increasing returns and long-run growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[5]ROMER P.M.Endogenous technological change[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):71-102.
[6]AGHION P,Howitt P.A model of growth through creative destruction[J].Econometrica,1992,60(2):323-351.
[7]FOFACK H.The idea of economic development:Views from Africa[R].WIDER Working Paper,2014-093.
[8]林毅夫.新结构经济学:反思经济发展与政策的理论框架[M].增订版.北京:北京大学出版社,2014.
[9]林毅夫,王燕.超越发展援助:在一个多极世界中重构发展合作新理念[M].宋琛,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2016.
[10]ROSENSTEIN-RODAN.Problems of industrialization of eastern and southeastern Europe[J].Economic Journal,1943,53:202-211.
[11]AGENOR P R,MORENODODSON B.Public infrastructure and growth:New channels and policy implications[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2016,59:1-59.
[12]CZERNICH N,OLIVER FALCK,TOBIAS KRETSCHMER,LUDGER WOESSMANN.Broadband infrastructure and economic growth[J].The Economic Journal,2011,121(5):505-532.
[13]DONALDSON D,HORNBECK R.Railroads and American economic growth:A“market access”approach[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(2):799-858.
[14]易斯塔什,费伊.当前关于基础设施政策的讨论[M]//斯彭斯,莱普泽.全球化与增长:后危机时代的含义.刘学梅,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2016.
[15]廖茂林,许召元,胡翠,喻崇武.基础设施投资是否还能促进经济增长?---基于1994-2016年省级面板数据的实证检验[J].管理世界,2018(5):63-73.
[16]CRESCENTIC R,RODRIGUZ-POSE A.Infrastructure and regional growth in the European Union[J].Papers in Regional Science,2012,91(3):487-513.
[17]BRICEO-GARMENDIA C,ESTACHE A,SHAFIK N.Infrastructure services in developing countries:Access,quality,costs,and policy reform[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.3468,2004.
[18]AUDRETSCH D B,HEGER D,VEITH T.Infrastructure and entrepreneurship[J].Small Business Economics,2015,44:219-230.
[19]BRENNEMAN A,KERF M.Infrastructure poverty linkages:A literature review[R].Washington DC:World Bank,2002.
[20]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗---兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.
[21]欧阳艳艳,张光南.基础设施供给与效率对“中国制造”的影响研究[J].管理世界,2016(8):97-109.
[22]范欣,宋冬林,赵新宇.基础设施建设打破了国内市场分割吗?[J].经济研究,2017(2):20-34.
[23]SHI Y,GUO S,SUN P.The role of infrastructure in China’s regional economic growth[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2017,49:26-41.
[24]LIN J Y.New structural economics:a framework for rethinking development[J].Policy Research Working Paper,2011,51(3):323-326.
[25]ACEMOGLU D,GALLEGO F A,ROBINSON J A.Institutions,human capital,and development[J].The Annual Review of Economics,2014(6):875-912.
[26]NORTH D C,THOMAS R P..The rise of the western world:A new economic history[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,1973.
[27]李佳洪.经济增长的基本源泉:分工[J].财经科学,1997(4):10-13.
[28]乔榛.马克思分工理论:发展马克思主义经济学的一种范式[J].经济学家,2005(3):36-42.
[29]斯密.国民财富的性质及其原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1983.
[30]杨小凯.经济学---新古典与新兴古典框架[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[31]陈锦希.从“国际分工”到“科学技术是第一生产力”的新突破[J].理论学习月刊,1995(5):26-28.
[32]崔向阳.马克思的历史视角分工发展理论及其当代价值[J].当代经济研究,2011(8):10-18
[33]罗文花.马克思社会分工理论新析[J].马克思主义研究,2008(6):64-69.
[34]程锐,柳江.“新常态”视角下中国经济增长源泉的再思考[J].天津商业大学学报,2016,36(1):48-54.
[35]BARRO R J,JONG-WHA LEE.A new data set of educational attainment in the world,1950-2010[R].NBER Working Paper,No.15902,2010.
[36]HALL R E,JONES C I.Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker then others?[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(1):83-116.
[37]HSIEH C T,KLENOW P J.Development accounting[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2010,2(1):207-223.
[38]樊纲,王小鲁,马光荣.中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献[J].经济研究,2011(9):4-16.
[39]黄新飞,舒元,徐裕敏.制度距离与跨国收入差距[J].经济研究,2013(9):4-16.
[40]黄新飞,关楠,翟爱梅.遗传距离对跨国收入差距的影响研究:理论和中国的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1127-1146.
[41]张中元.东道国制度质量、双边投资协议与中国对外直接投资---基于面板门限回归模型的实证分析[J].南方经济,2013(4):49-62.
[42]张欢,徐康宁,孙文远.城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(5):40-58.
[43]SACHSJ,胡永泰,杨小凯.经济改革和宪政转轨[J].经济学(季刊),2003,2(4):961-988.
(1)其中8个是西欧周边的欧洲国家或者石油生产国,其经济增长得益于与发达国家原本微小的收入差距或优越的石油禀赋,其他5个经济体则是日本和亚洲“四小龙”(林毅夫,2014)。
(1)这里这样表述,并不是说在分工形成过程中硬基础设施不起作用、在分工演进过程中软基础设施不起作用,而是强调起主导作用的因素:在硬基础设施条件差异不大的情况下,软基础设施对分工形成的影响占据主导地位;在新的分工演进之初,更需要硬基础设施为市场规模的扩大提供保障,以促进新分工顺利融入社会分工体系。
(1)需要说明是,本文实证分析采用世界银行的全球治理指数衡量软基础设施水平,其取值范围为[-2.5,2.5],如果取对数会删掉大量有用样本,引起测量误差和估计偏误,故软基础设施指标不取对数。
(1)由于难以找到适当的软基础设施和硬基础设施的工具变量,选择充分考虑内生性问题的系统广义矩估计方法。
(2)从20世纪90年代开始,尤其是进入21世纪,信息成为影响经济发展的重要因素,移动蜂窝式电话的使用可以有效促进信息的交流和互换,降低交易费用,提高交易效率,促进经济增长;而其他硬基础设施的建设(如交通设施)在很多国家已经达到一定高度,其水平的提高幅度不大且在短期内对经济增长的促进作用有限。