内生于市场定价体系的经济周期——收入分配、价格分层与超前消费
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摘要
传统的经济周期理论将外在冲击和内生机制对立起来,要么忽视了市场的内生缺陷,要么缺乏对经济周期内生于市场这一过程的剖析。文章基于锦标赛制的市场定价体系这一维度来挖掘经济周期的内生机制,进一步揭示内生于市场的经济周期的传导机制和触发因素,更全面地考察信贷扩张在经济周期中所扮演的角色,进而分析内生于市场的经济危机所呈现出来的主要特性。文章得到的主要结论有:(1)经济周期根源于锦标赛制的市场定价体系,其基本逻辑是,市场马太效应导致收入差距扩大,而由收入决定的购买力则造成产品等级化和价格分层,进而导致消费层次与经济发展水平间出现脱节,乃至产业结构也会偏离实际的经济发展水平;(2)信贷(信用)扩张是经济周期重要的助长条件和加速机制;(3)外在因素冲击只是经济周期的触发条件,经由收入结构所决定的锦标赛制市场定价体系才能最终促成经济周期的发生和传导;(4)经济周期的典型特征或影响是大企业陷入困境或倒闭。上述结论说明,避免经济危机的根本举措不是放任市场自由运行,而是要对市场机制进行修正和完善,集中体现为对锦标赛制定价体系加以监管和制约以避免社会收入的两极化。
The neo-classic liberalism economics tends to owe the economic cycle to the exogenous shock from money or physical objects,so as to overcome the economic crisis through the prevention of external shocks. In particular,the Austria School attributes the economic cycle to credit expansion led by the government based on the transmission mechanism of interest rate,so as to put forward the proposition that currency issuance should not be nationalized,which has become the most popular concept nowadays. Here,the Austrian School takes interest rate as the transmission mechanism,which leads to the change of the production structure,and then out of touch with consumption. However,this paper holds that the basic mechanism of guiding consumption and production is price but not interest rate,and then the changes of production and consumption with credit are analyzed from the perspective of the market pricing system,which clearly reveals that the economic cycle or the economic crisis is born in the market economy from the market pricing system. The basic analysis logic of this paper is that:(1) The Matthew effect of the market will inevitably lead to the widening of income gap,and the purchasing power determined by income causes the hierarchical price of different grade products.(2) Correspondingly,not only the rich people prefer the consumption of advanced products,but also the social mass has a universal preconsumption under the guidance of producer sovereignty,and all of which will stimulate manufacturers to produce and invest the advanced products.(3) As a result,there is to occur asymmetric between the consumption structure and the income structure in the market economy,and which causes the disconnection between the consumption level and economy development as well as the industrial structure being out of the actual level of economy development.(4) Furthermore,with the help of the credit system and credit expansion,there is more significant price stratification in the boom period than that in the depression period,and which makes the social production especially the production of highgrade products significantly surpass the actual level of economy development and the level of consumption demand.(5) However,the oversupplied advanced products is very vulnerable to the demand impact from economic fluctuations,and which will lead the sinking of capital investment,the idling of capacity as well as the bankruptcy of the related enterprises,so as to lead to the economic crisis.By systematically analyzing the origin,transmission,intensification and triggering factors of the economic crisis,this paper draws the following conclusions:What the cyclical expansion and constriction of credit is mainly due to is not the government's improper policies but the merchant's impulse of pursuing profits.Moreover,the expansion and constriction of credit only plays a role in fuelling and intensifying the economic crisis. In other words,the economic crisis is more rooted in the market economy system than in exogenous shocks. Just because the economic crisis cannot be avoided in the pure market economy,this paper gives such a policy implication:to alleviate and avoid the economic crisis,we should not let the market run freely at all,but amend and perfect the market mechanism,and the most important thing is the supervision and restriction of the tournament pricing system to avoid the trend of social income stratification,so as to establish and improve the self-discipline market mechanism.
The neo-classic liberalism economics tends to owe the economic cycle to the exogenous shock from money or physical objects,so as to overcome the economic crisis through the prevention of external shocks. In particular,the Austria School attributes the economic cycle to credit expansion led by the government based on the transmission mechanism of interest rate,so as to put forward the proposition that currency issuance should not be nationalized,which has become the most popular concept nowadays. Here,the Austrian School takes interest rate as the transmission mechanism,which leads to the change of the production structure,and then out of touch with consumption. However,this paper holds that the basic mechanism of guiding consumption and production is price but not interest rate,and then the changes of production and consumption with credit are analyzed from the perspective of the market pricing system,which clearly reveals that the economic cycle or the economic crisis is born in the market economy from the market pricing system. The basic analysis logic of this paper is that:(1) The Matthew effect of the market will inevitably lead to the widening of income gap,and the purchasing power determined by income causes the hierarchical price of different grade products.(2) Correspondingly,not only the rich people prefer the consumption of advanced products,but also the social mass has a universal preconsumption under the guidance of producer sovereignty,and all of which will stimulate manufacturers to produce and invest the advanced products.(3) As a result,there is to occur asymmetric between the consumption structure and the income structure in the market economy,and which causes the disconnection between the consumption level and economy development as well as the industrial structure being out of the actual level of economy development.(4) Furthermore,with the help of the credit system and credit expansion,there is more significant price stratification in the boom period than that in the depression period,and which makes the social production especially the production of highgrade products significantly surpass the actual level of economy development and the level of consumption demand.(5) However,the oversupplied advanced products is very vulnerable to the demand impact from economic fluctuations,and which will lead the sinking of capital investment,the idling of capacity as well as the bankruptcy of the related enterprises,so as to lead to the economic crisis.By systematically analyzing the origin,transmission,intensification and triggering factors of the economic crisis,this paper draws the following conclusions:What the cyclical expansion and constriction of credit is mainly due to is not the government's improper policies but the merchant's impulse of pursuing profits.Moreover,the expansion and constriction of credit only plays a role in fuelling and intensifying the economic crisis. In other words,the economic crisis is more rooted in the market economy system than in exogenous shocks. Just because the economic crisis cannot be avoided in the pure market economy,this paper gives such a policy implication:to alleviate and avoid the economic crisis,we should not let the market run freely at all,but amend and perfect the market mechanism,and the most important thing is the supervision and restriction of the tournament pricing system to avoid the trend of social income stratification,so as to establish and improve the self-discipline market mechanism.
引文
[1][德]迪特·罗伊特.劳动法在市场经济体制中的职能[A].[德]何梦笔.秩序自由主义:德国秩序政策论集[M].董靖译.北京:中国社会科学出版社,2002.
[2][英]海约克.物价与生产[M].滕维藻,朱宗风译.上海:上海人民出版社,1958.
[3][美]杰弗里·萨克斯.文明的代价[M].钟振明译.杭州:浙江大学出版社,2014.
[4][美]理查德·波斯纳.资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临[M].沈明译.北京:北京大学出版社,2009.
[5][美]里查德·D·伍尔夫.2000年的美国经济:一个马克思主义的分析[J].宇光杰,陈英译.当代经济研究,2001,(1):7-12.
[6][美]理查德·H.泰勒.赢者的诅咒:经济生活中的悖论与反常现象[M].陈宇峰,曲亮译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.
[7][美]理查德·威尔金森,凯特·皮克特.不平等的痛苦:收入差距如何导致社会问题[M].安鹏译.北京:新华出版社,2010.
[8]林毅夫.特朗普掀起贸易战是“欲加之罪”,中国可三点应对[EB/OL].http://news.ifeng.com/a/20180330/57184240_0.shtml,2018-03-30/2018-09-20.
[9][奥]路德维希·冯·米塞斯.人的行动:关于经济学的论文[M].余晖译.上海:上海人民出版社,2013.
[10][德]路德维希·拉赫曼.资本及其结构[M].刘纽译.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2015.
[11][美]马克·史库森.生产的结构[M].陈露,姜昊骞译.北京:新华出版社,2016.
[12][德]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯全集(第26卷Ⅱ)[M].中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.北京:人民出版社,1973.
[13][德]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯全集(第25卷)[M].中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.北京:人民出版社,1974.
[14][英]迈克尔·雅各布斯,玛丽安娜·马祖卡尔.重思资本主义:导言[A].[英]迈克尔·雅各布斯,玛丽安娜·马祖卡尔.重思资本主义:实现持续性、包容性增长的经济与政策[C].李磊,束东新,陆昕等译.北京:中信出版集团,2017.
[15][美]穆雷·N.罗斯巴德.美国大萧条[M].谢华育译.海口:海南出版社,2017.
[16][美]史蒂芬·罗奇.泡沫世界的原罪[N].王蔚祺译.第一财经日报,2007-08-21.
[17][法]托马斯·皮凯蒂.21世纪的资本论[M].巴曙松,陈剑,余江等译.北京:中信出版社,2014.
[18]王进雨,黎史翔.发达国家穷富差距26倍破纪录[EB/OL].http://finance.ifeng.com/money/wealth/millionaire/20111206/5216180.shtml,2011-12-06/2018-09-20.
[19][美]约瑟夫E.斯蒂格利茨.不平等的代价[M].张子源译.北京:机械工业出版社,2013.
[20][美]詹姆斯·M.布坎南.宪法秩序的经济学与伦理学[M].朱泱,毕洪海,李广乾译.北京:商务印书馆,2008.
[21]张旭昆.西洋经济思想史新编:从汉穆拉比到凯恩斯[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2015.
[22]朱富强.纯粹市场经济体系能否满足社会大众的需求:反思现代主流经济学的两大市场信念[J].财经研究,2013,(5):17-28.
[23]朱富强.如何构建中国经济学的收入分配理论:权力框架[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2015a,(2):185-196.
[24]朱富强.市场博弈、权力结构与收入分配机制:剖解中国收入差距扩大的深层原因[J].社会科学辑刊,2015b,(4):85-93.
[25]朱富强.如何理解现代经济危机的根源及其表现形态:基于马克思经济学视角对传导机制的考察[J].经济学家,2017,(6):14-24.
[26]朱富强.不确定情形下的市场定价机制:基于心理-权力框架对新古典价格理论的审视[J].财经研究,2018a,(5):61-82.
[27]朱富强.认识企业家在现代经济中的破坏性--凡勃伦二分法思维对奥地利学派信条的审视[J].财经问题研究,2018b,(1):14-23.
[28]朱富强.经济增长的逻辑:新结构经济学视角[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2018c.
[29]Dickens W T,Katz F.Inter-industry wage differences and industry characteristics[A].Lang K,Leonard J S.Unemployment and the Structure of Labor Markets[C].London:Blackwell,1987.
[30]Dunlop J T.The task of contemporary wage theory[A].Dunlop J T.The theory of wage determination[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1957.
[31]Groshen C W J.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,1969,37(3):424-438.
[32]Temin P.Lessons from the great depression[M].Cambridge MA:MIT Press,1989.
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第18页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第53页。
(2)引自马克思、恩格斯:《马克思恩格斯全集》(第25卷),人民出版社1974年版,第272-273页。
(1)参见新华网:“2017年全国恩格尔系数29.3%已达联合国富足标准”,http://www.xinhuanet.com/finance/2018-01/18/c_129794235.htm。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第54页。
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第154页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第55页。
(2)在上海人民出版社1958年的版本中,作者被译为海约克。为了规范起见,本文统一使用哈耶克这一译名。
(1)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第594页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第31页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第56页。
(2)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第582页。
(1)(2)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第572页。
(1)引自马克思、恩格斯:《马克斯恩格斯全集》(第26卷Ⅱ),人民出版社1973年版,第595页。
(1)引自布坎南:《宪法秩序的经济学与伦理学》,商务印书馆2008年版,第51页。
(1)引自萨克斯:《文明的代价》,浙江大学出版社2014年版,第22页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第72页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第17页。
(1)引自罗伊特:《劳动法在市场经济体制中的职能》,中国社会科学出版社2002年版,第314页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第68-69页。
(3)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第18页。
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第210页。
[2][英]海约克.物价与生产[M].滕维藻,朱宗风译.上海:上海人民出版社,1958.
[3][美]杰弗里·萨克斯.文明的代价[M].钟振明译.杭州:浙江大学出版社,2014.
[4][美]理查德·波斯纳.资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临[M].沈明译.北京:北京大学出版社,2009.
[5][美]里查德·D·伍尔夫.2000年的美国经济:一个马克思主义的分析[J].宇光杰,陈英译.当代经济研究,2001,(1):7-12.
[6][美]理查德·H.泰勒.赢者的诅咒:经济生活中的悖论与反常现象[M].陈宇峰,曲亮译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.
[7][美]理查德·威尔金森,凯特·皮克特.不平等的痛苦:收入差距如何导致社会问题[M].安鹏译.北京:新华出版社,2010.
[8]林毅夫.特朗普掀起贸易战是“欲加之罪”,中国可三点应对[EB/OL].http://news.ifeng.com/a/20180330/57184240_0.shtml,2018-03-30/2018-09-20.
[9][奥]路德维希·冯·米塞斯.人的行动:关于经济学的论文[M].余晖译.上海:上海人民出版社,2013.
[10][德]路德维希·拉赫曼.资本及其结构[M].刘纽译.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2015.
[11][美]马克·史库森.生产的结构[M].陈露,姜昊骞译.北京:新华出版社,2016.
[12][德]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯全集(第26卷Ⅱ)[M].中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.北京:人民出版社,1973.
[13][德]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯全集(第25卷)[M].中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.北京:人民出版社,1974.
[14][英]迈克尔·雅各布斯,玛丽安娜·马祖卡尔.重思资本主义:导言[A].[英]迈克尔·雅各布斯,玛丽安娜·马祖卡尔.重思资本主义:实现持续性、包容性增长的经济与政策[C].李磊,束东新,陆昕等译.北京:中信出版集团,2017.
[15][美]穆雷·N.罗斯巴德.美国大萧条[M].谢华育译.海口:海南出版社,2017.
[16][美]史蒂芬·罗奇.泡沫世界的原罪[N].王蔚祺译.第一财经日报,2007-08-21.
[17][法]托马斯·皮凯蒂.21世纪的资本论[M].巴曙松,陈剑,余江等译.北京:中信出版社,2014.
[18]王进雨,黎史翔.发达国家穷富差距26倍破纪录[EB/OL].http://finance.ifeng.com/money/wealth/millionaire/20111206/5216180.shtml,2011-12-06/2018-09-20.
[19][美]约瑟夫E.斯蒂格利茨.不平等的代价[M].张子源译.北京:机械工业出版社,2013.
[20][美]詹姆斯·M.布坎南.宪法秩序的经济学与伦理学[M].朱泱,毕洪海,李广乾译.北京:商务印书馆,2008.
[21]张旭昆.西洋经济思想史新编:从汉穆拉比到凯恩斯[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2015.
[22]朱富强.纯粹市场经济体系能否满足社会大众的需求:反思现代主流经济学的两大市场信念[J].财经研究,2013,(5):17-28.
[23]朱富强.如何构建中国经济学的收入分配理论:权力框架[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2015a,(2):185-196.
[24]朱富强.市场博弈、权力结构与收入分配机制:剖解中国收入差距扩大的深层原因[J].社会科学辑刊,2015b,(4):85-93.
[25]朱富强.如何理解现代经济危机的根源及其表现形态:基于马克思经济学视角对传导机制的考察[J].经济学家,2017,(6):14-24.
[26]朱富强.不确定情形下的市场定价机制:基于心理-权力框架对新古典价格理论的审视[J].财经研究,2018a,(5):61-82.
[27]朱富强.认识企业家在现代经济中的破坏性--凡勃伦二分法思维对奥地利学派信条的审视[J].财经问题研究,2018b,(1):14-23.
[28]朱富强.经济增长的逻辑:新结构经济学视角[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2018c.
[29]Dickens W T,Katz F.Inter-industry wage differences and industry characteristics[A].Lang K,Leonard J S.Unemployment and the Structure of Labor Markets[C].London:Blackwell,1987.
[30]Dunlop J T.The task of contemporary wage theory[A].Dunlop J T.The theory of wage determination[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1957.
[31]Groshen C W J.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,1969,37(3):424-438.
[32]Temin P.Lessons from the great depression[M].Cambridge MA:MIT Press,1989.
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第18页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第53页。
(2)引自马克思、恩格斯:《马克思恩格斯全集》(第25卷),人民出版社1974年版,第272-273页。
(1)参见新华网:“2017年全国恩格尔系数29.3%已达联合国富足标准”,http://www.xinhuanet.com/finance/2018-01/18/c_129794235.htm。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第54页。
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第154页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第55页。
(2)在上海人民出版社1958年的版本中,作者被译为海约克。为了规范起见,本文统一使用哈耶克这一译名。
(1)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第594页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第31页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第56页。
(2)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第582页。
(1)(2)引自米塞斯:《人的行动:关于经济学的论文》,上海人民出版社2013年版,第572页。
(1)引自马克思、恩格斯:《马克斯恩格斯全集》(第26卷Ⅱ),人民出版社1973年版,第595页。
(1)引自布坎南:《宪法秩序的经济学与伦理学》,商务印书馆2008年版,第51页。
(1)引自萨克斯:《文明的代价》,浙江大学出版社2014年版,第22页。
(1)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第72页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第17页。
(1)引自罗伊特:《劳动法在市场经济体制中的职能》,中国社会科学出版社2002年版,第314页。
(2)引自罗斯巴德:《美国大萧条》,海南出版社2017年版,第68-69页。
(3)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第18页。
(1)引自波斯纳:《资本主义的失败:零八危机与经济萧条的降临》,北京大学出版社2009年版,第210页。