湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性特征及其对贫困的影响
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摘要
应用探索性和验证性定量分析方法,测度并探讨了2000~2012年间湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性的时空演变特征及其对贫困的影响。研究发现,湖南武陵山片区农民收入的多样性程度不高且呈现"先降后升"的趋势,不同县市区间农民收入多样性程度差距不断缩小;多样性程度相似县市区在少数年份呈现出空间集聚而在大多数年份为随机分布;片区内娄邵片区、张家界片区农民收入多样性程度相对较高,怀化片区最低,湘西州片区则提升幅度最大,整体上高多样化县市区向娄邵片区和湘西州片区集中;局部空间格局中高-高(HH)、低-高(LH)类型有较大的空间迁移,而高-低(HL)、低-低(LL)类型在空间上分布相对稳定且大多数年份驻留在怀化片区,湘西州片区内县市区跨空间格局类型变迁最为剧烈;农民收入多样性对增加农民收入、降低贫困有着十分显著的影响。
Applying the exploratory and confirmatory quantitative research methods, this article measured and analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influence on poverty of farmers' income diversity in Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province during the period of 2000 to 2012. The results showed that, firstly, the diversity degree was low and followed the"U"shape trace, and the diversity gaps between different counties were narrowing gradually. Secondly, the counties which had the similar degrees of farmers' income diversity were clustered in a few years while scattered randomly in most of other years. Thirdly, the farmers who lived in the subareas of Loushao, Zhangjiajie had more diverse sources of income than those who lived in subareas of Huaihua and Xiangxi, and the farmers who lived in Huaihua subarea had the lowest income diversity degrees and those who lived in Xiangxi subarea experienced the fastest increase of income diversity, generally, more and more counties in the subareas of Loushao and Xiangxi had high diversity of farmers' income sources. Fourthly, during the period of 2000 to 2012, the local spatial patterns of HH(High-High) and LH(Low-High) had moved dramatically from counties to counties, while the other patterns of HL and LL were stable relatively and stayed in Huaihua subarea in most of years, and the counties which belong to Xiangxi subarea changed their local spatial patterns more frequently. Lastly, the diversity of income had obviously and significantly influence on increasing farmers' income and reducing poverty.
Applying the exploratory and confirmatory quantitative research methods, this article measured and analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influence on poverty of farmers' income diversity in Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province during the period of 2000 to 2012. The results showed that, firstly, the diversity degree was low and followed the"U"shape trace, and the diversity gaps between different counties were narrowing gradually. Secondly, the counties which had the similar degrees of farmers' income diversity were clustered in a few years while scattered randomly in most of other years. Thirdly, the farmers who lived in the subareas of Loushao, Zhangjiajie had more diverse sources of income than those who lived in subareas of Huaihua and Xiangxi, and the farmers who lived in Huaihua subarea had the lowest income diversity degrees and those who lived in Xiangxi subarea experienced the fastest increase of income diversity, generally, more and more counties in the subareas of Loushao and Xiangxi had high diversity of farmers' income sources. Fourthly, during the period of 2000 to 2012, the local spatial patterns of HH(High-High) and LH(Low-High) had moved dramatically from counties to counties, while the other patterns of HL and LL were stable relatively and stayed in Huaihua subarea in most of years, and the counties which belong to Xiangxi subarea changed their local spatial patterns more frequently. Lastly, the diversity of income had obviously and significantly influence on increasing farmers' income and reducing poverty.
引文
[1]丁建军.中国11个集中连片特困区贫困程度比较研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(12):1418-1427.[Ding Jianjun.Comparative analysis on poverty degree of China’s 11 Contiguous Destitute Areas:with view of comprehensive development index.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1418-1427.]
[2]张永林,叶菁,高齐.农村经济多样性和产业化与农民增加收入的内因和机理[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(9):29-38.[Zhang Yonglin,Ye Jing,Gao Qi.Diversity and industrialization of rural economy and the essential mechanism of farmer increasing income.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2006,(9):29-38.]
[3]Li G B.Income inequality within and across counties in rural China 1988 and 1995[J].Journal of Development Economics,2002,(69):179-204.
[4]Alain de Janvry,Elisabeth Sadoulet,Zhu Nong.The role of nonfarm incomes in reducing poverty and inequality in China[R].CUDARE working paper,2005:1-29.
[5]刘慧.中国农村居民收入区域差异变化的因子解析[J].地理学报,2008,63(8):799-806.[Liu Hui.Factor decomposition of rural regional income inequality changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(8):799-806.]
[6]万广华.中国农村区域间居民收入差异及其变化的实证分析[J].经济研究,1998(5):36-41.[Wan Guanghua.The positive analysis on differences and changes of inter-regional rural residents’income of China.Economic Research Journal,1998(5):36-41.]
[7]万年庆,李红忠,史文本.基于偏离一份额法的我国农民收入结构演进的省际比较[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):672-686.[Wan Nianqing,Li Hongzhong,Shi Benlin.Inter-provincial comparison of rural residents’income structure and its evolution:Based on shift-share method.Geographical Research,2012,31(4):672-686.]
[8]丁建军.湖南武陵山片区农民收入增长及演变特征的县际差异[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):137-143.[Ding Jianjun.Differences of farmers’income growth and evolution characteristics across counties in Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province:with Shift-Share Method.Economic Geography,2014,34(10):137-143.]
[9]Attaran,M.Industrial diversity and economic performance in US areas[J].The Annals of Regional Science,1986,20(2):44-54.
[10]Dissart J C.Regional economic diversity and regional economic stability:Research results and agenda[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(4):423-446.
[11]Frenken K,Van Oort F,Verburg T.Related variety,unrelated variety and regional economic growth[J].Regional Studies,2007,41(5):685-697.
[12]湖南省统计局.湖南省统计年鉴(2001~2013)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2013.[Statistics Bureau of Hunan Province.The Statistical Yearbook of Hunan Province.Beijing:The Statistics Press of China,2001-2013.]
[13]Mack E,Grubesic T H,Kessler E.Indices of Industrial diversity and regional economic composition[J].Growth and Change,2007,38(3):474-509.
[14]石忆邵,吴婕.上海城乡经济多样化测度方法及其演变特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(2):7-13.[Shi Yishao,Wu Jie.Measuring methods and evolution features of urban-rural economic diversification in Shanghai.Economic Geography,2015,35(2):7-13.]
[15]Anselin L.Interactive techniques and exploratory spatial data analysis.//Michael F Goodchild et al.Geographical Information Systems,Principles,Technical Issues,Management Issues and Applications.New York:John Wiley&Sons,1999,253-226.
[16]苏方林.中国省域R&D活动的探索性空间数据分析[J].广西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,44(6):52-56.[Su Fanglin.An exploratory spatial data analysis of R&D activities in China.Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,44(6):52-56.]
[17]Anselin L.Local indicators of spatial acssociation-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,(2):93-115.
(1)本文选择2000~2012年湖南武陵山片区37县市区而不是武陵山片区71县市区作为研究对象还有一个原因是贵州、湖北和重庆3省市并没有统计各县市区农民收入的来源及构成,此外,湖南省自2013年起也不再统计各县市区农民收入来源及构成。
(2)模型中将“农民人均纯收入”表征“贫困”作为被解释变量一方面是基于“收入贫困论”及贫困经济学研究文献中的做法,另一方面则由于各县“贫困率”、“低保户占比”等指标缺乏权威和连续的公开数据来源。此外,同样由于数据可得性的缘故,模型中“忽视”了道路等基础设施的影响。
(3)在空间计量分析中,空间截面回归分析模型及其检验更为成熟,应用也最为广泛。
(1)本文采取1阶共边或共点为邻接(queen contiguity)的权重矩阵创建方式。
(2)数据为计算所得,限于篇幅未能给出。
(3)娄邵片区包括分属娄底和邵阳两市的11县市区,张家界片区含张家界市2区2县以及常德的石门县,怀化片区包括怀化市所辖县市区和益阳的安化县在内的共13县市区,湘西州片区则为湘西州8县市。
(1)产生这一结果可能与公共财政支出的城镇偏向有关,由于城乡公共服务的差距,农民实际受益可能非常少。
[2]张永林,叶菁,高齐.农村经济多样性和产业化与农民增加收入的内因和机理[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(9):29-38.[Zhang Yonglin,Ye Jing,Gao Qi.Diversity and industrialization of rural economy and the essential mechanism of farmer increasing income.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2006,(9):29-38.]
[3]Li G B.Income inequality within and across counties in rural China 1988 and 1995[J].Journal of Development Economics,2002,(69):179-204.
[4]Alain de Janvry,Elisabeth Sadoulet,Zhu Nong.The role of nonfarm incomes in reducing poverty and inequality in China[R].CUDARE working paper,2005:1-29.
[5]刘慧.中国农村居民收入区域差异变化的因子解析[J].地理学报,2008,63(8):799-806.[Liu Hui.Factor decomposition of rural regional income inequality changes in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(8):799-806.]
[6]万广华.中国农村区域间居民收入差异及其变化的实证分析[J].经济研究,1998(5):36-41.[Wan Guanghua.The positive analysis on differences and changes of inter-regional rural residents’income of China.Economic Research Journal,1998(5):36-41.]
[7]万年庆,李红忠,史文本.基于偏离一份额法的我国农民收入结构演进的省际比较[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):672-686.[Wan Nianqing,Li Hongzhong,Shi Benlin.Inter-provincial comparison of rural residents’income structure and its evolution:Based on shift-share method.Geographical Research,2012,31(4):672-686.]
[8]丁建军.湖南武陵山片区农民收入增长及演变特征的县际差异[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):137-143.[Ding Jianjun.Differences of farmers’income growth and evolution characteristics across counties in Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province:with Shift-Share Method.Economic Geography,2014,34(10):137-143.]
[9]Attaran,M.Industrial diversity and economic performance in US areas[J].The Annals of Regional Science,1986,20(2):44-54.
[10]Dissart J C.Regional economic diversity and regional economic stability:Research results and agenda[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(4):423-446.
[11]Frenken K,Van Oort F,Verburg T.Related variety,unrelated variety and regional economic growth[J].Regional Studies,2007,41(5):685-697.
[12]湖南省统计局.湖南省统计年鉴(2001~2013)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2013.[Statistics Bureau of Hunan Province.The Statistical Yearbook of Hunan Province.Beijing:The Statistics Press of China,2001-2013.]
[13]Mack E,Grubesic T H,Kessler E.Indices of Industrial diversity and regional economic composition[J].Growth and Change,2007,38(3):474-509.
[14]石忆邵,吴婕.上海城乡经济多样化测度方法及其演变特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(2):7-13.[Shi Yishao,Wu Jie.Measuring methods and evolution features of urban-rural economic diversification in Shanghai.Economic Geography,2015,35(2):7-13.]
[15]Anselin L.Interactive techniques and exploratory spatial data analysis.//Michael F Goodchild et al.Geographical Information Systems,Principles,Technical Issues,Management Issues and Applications.New York:John Wiley&Sons,1999,253-226.
[16]苏方林.中国省域R&D活动的探索性空间数据分析[J].广西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,44(6):52-56.[Su Fanglin.An exploratory spatial data analysis of R&D activities in China.Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,44(6):52-56.]
[17]Anselin L.Local indicators of spatial acssociation-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,(2):93-115.
(1)本文选择2000~2012年湖南武陵山片区37县市区而不是武陵山片区71县市区作为研究对象还有一个原因是贵州、湖北和重庆3省市并没有统计各县市区农民收入的来源及构成,此外,湖南省自2013年起也不再统计各县市区农民收入来源及构成。
(2)模型中将“农民人均纯收入”表征“贫困”作为被解释变量一方面是基于“收入贫困论”及贫困经济学研究文献中的做法,另一方面则由于各县“贫困率”、“低保户占比”等指标缺乏权威和连续的公开数据来源。此外,同样由于数据可得性的缘故,模型中“忽视”了道路等基础设施的影响。
(3)在空间计量分析中,空间截面回归分析模型及其检验更为成熟,应用也最为广泛。
(1)本文采取1阶共边或共点为邻接(queen contiguity)的权重矩阵创建方式。
(2)数据为计算所得,限于篇幅未能给出。
(3)娄邵片区包括分属娄底和邵阳两市的11县市区,张家界片区含张家界市2区2县以及常德的石门县,怀化片区包括怀化市所辖县市区和益阳的安化县在内的共13县市区,湘西州片区则为湘西州8县市。
(1)产生这一结果可能与公共财政支出的城镇偏向有关,由于城乡公共服务的差距,农民实际受益可能非常少。