美元贬值与美国贸易收支关系——基于2002-2008年季度面板数据的实证研究
|
摘要
美国货币当局极力推行量化宽松货币政策,期望通过美元贬值来改善其贸易收支状况。其实,无论是双边贸易收支理论模型还是季度面板数据的实证检验都揭示:影响美国贸易收支的因素并不只有美元汇率,美国贸易收支自身惯性、相对产出、相对商品价格等都是影响因素,且美国贸易收支惯性才是最主要因素。由于美国贸易收支逆差存在巨大惯性,美元汇率对贸易收支调节又存在滞后效应,妄图短期内仅仅依靠美元汇率贬值来调整过多的美国贸易逆差是徒劳的,采取一揽子的政策组合可能更为有效。
U. S. authorities tried to implement quantitative easing monetary policy,expecting to improve trade balance by depreciation of the dollar. In fact,whether theoretical model of bilateral trade balance or quarter panel empirical data reveals the factors that affect the U. S. trade balance are not only the change of the dollar,but also the inertia of U. S. trade balance,relative to output,relative commodity prices of the United States,etc. The inertia of U. S. trade balance is the most important factor. Because of the huge inertia of U. S. trade balance deficit and the lag effect of U. S. dollar exchange rate on trade balance adjustment,it is futile to attempt to adjust the U. S. trade deficit in short term by depreciating the U. S. dollar. Package policy may be more effective.
U. S. authorities tried to implement quantitative easing monetary policy,expecting to improve trade balance by depreciation of the dollar. In fact,whether theoretical model of bilateral trade balance or quarter panel empirical data reveals the factors that affect the U. S. trade balance are not only the change of the dollar,but also the inertia of U. S. trade balance,relative to output,relative commodity prices of the United States,etc. The inertia of U. S. trade balance is the most important factor. Because of the huge inertia of U. S. trade balance deficit and the lag effect of U. S. dollar exchange rate on trade balance adjustment,it is futile to attempt to adjust the U. S. trade deficit in short term by depreciating the U. S. dollar. Package policy may be more effective.
引文
[1]ROBERT M F.The Interaction of Foreign Exchange and Market Power Effects on German Domestic Prices[J].The Jounal of Industrial Economics,1986,35(1):61-70.
[2]ROBERT M F.The Effects of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements on U.S.Domestic Prices[J].Review of Economics and Statisties,1989,71(3):505-511.
[3]GIOVANNI P O.Exchange Rates and the Prices of Manufacturing Products Imported into the United States[J].New England Economic Review,2002(1):3-18.
[4]DORNBUSCH R.Exchange Rate and Price[J].American Economic Review,1987,77(3):83-106.
[5]KARIM B.Differences in Long Run Exchange Rate Passthrough into Import Prices in Developing Countries:An Empirical Investigation[J].Economic Modeling,2006,23(6):926-951.
[6]MOFFETT M.The J-curve Revised:An Empirical Examination for the United States[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,1989(8):425-444.
[7]RATHA A.Dynamics of the U.S.Trade with Developing Countries[J].Journal of Developing Areas,2004,37(2):1-11.
[8]BOYD D,CAPORALE G M,RON S.Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade:Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition[J].International Journal of Finance and Economics,2001,6(3):187-200.
[9]ROSE A K.Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance[J].Economics Letters,1990(34):271-275.
[10]BROOKS T J.Bilateral J-curve Between U.S.and Her Trading Partners[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1999,135(1):156-165.
[11]杨荣,贺晓波.美元贬值与美国贸易收支恶化的原因分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(12):45-49.
[12]庄宗明,孔瑞.美国制造业变革的特征及其影响[J].世界经济,2006(3):90-96.
[2]ROBERT M F.The Effects of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements on U.S.Domestic Prices[J].Review of Economics and Statisties,1989,71(3):505-511.
[3]GIOVANNI P O.Exchange Rates and the Prices of Manufacturing Products Imported into the United States[J].New England Economic Review,2002(1):3-18.
[4]DORNBUSCH R.Exchange Rate and Price[J].American Economic Review,1987,77(3):83-106.
[5]KARIM B.Differences in Long Run Exchange Rate Passthrough into Import Prices in Developing Countries:An Empirical Investigation[J].Economic Modeling,2006,23(6):926-951.
[6]MOFFETT M.The J-curve Revised:An Empirical Examination for the United States[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,1989(8):425-444.
[7]RATHA A.Dynamics of the U.S.Trade with Developing Countries[J].Journal of Developing Areas,2004,37(2):1-11.
[8]BOYD D,CAPORALE G M,RON S.Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade:Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition[J].International Journal of Finance and Economics,2001,6(3):187-200.
[9]ROSE A K.Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance[J].Economics Letters,1990(34):271-275.
[10]BROOKS T J.Bilateral J-curve Between U.S.and Her Trading Partners[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1999,135(1):156-165.
[11]杨荣,贺晓波.美元贬值与美国贸易收支恶化的原因分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(12):45-49.
[12]庄宗明,孔瑞.美国制造业变革的特征及其影响[J].世界经济,2006(3):90-96.