基于组合预测的长江航道发展趋势研究
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摘要
通过建立特定航段货运量与经济指标的相关性模型,预测此航道货运量,以此为基础建立不同模型分别预测船舶平均载重吨,并通过加权组合确定最终值,根据相关公式可计算出船舶尺度,最终得到此航道的相应尺度。该研究可根据经济的发展趋势,将船舶平均载重吨与航道尺度建立相关性,预测出长江航道的尺度改变,为今后长江航道的规划与整治提供参考。
The correlation model between the freight volume of a particular section and the economic index is established to predict the freight volume of a channel.The average load tonnage of the ship by different models is predicted,and the final value is determined by weighted combination.According to the relevant formulas,the ship scale can be calculated,and the corresponding scale of this channel can be obtained in the end.According to the development trend of economy,the correlation between the average load tonnage of ships and the channel scale can be established to predict the scale change of the Yangtze River Channel,which is of positive reference significance to the planning and regulation of the Yangtze River Channel in the future.
The correlation model between the freight volume of a particular section and the economic index is established to predict the freight volume of a channel.The average load tonnage of the ship by different models is predicted,and the final value is determined by weighted combination.According to the relevant formulas,the ship scale can be calculated,and the corresponding scale of this channel can be obtained in the end.According to the development trend of economy,the correlation between the average load tonnage of ships and the channel scale can be established to predict the scale change of the Yangtze River Channel,which is of positive reference significance to the planning and regulation of the Yangtze River Channel in the future.
引文
[1]苏凡.长江干线航运发展与流域经济适应性评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2013.
[2]李志宏,李蕾,赵利平.长江干线中游航道建设对沿江经济的贡献研究[J].湖南交通科技,2010(4):111-113,125.
[3]林炳焜,程文明,于兰峰.基于组合预测模型的铁路集装箱运量预测[J].工业工程,2012,15(4):1-6.
[4]郭义浩,刘佳仑,刘明俊.水位与航道通航能力的关系研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2010(4):842-844.
[5]饶思梁.内河航道尺度与通航能力关系研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2011.
[6]马海峰.三峡枢纽过闸货运量预测分析及对策研究[J].中国水运,2015(3):23-25.
[7]内河通航标准:GB 50139-2004[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[2]李志宏,李蕾,赵利平.长江干线中游航道建设对沿江经济的贡献研究[J].湖南交通科技,2010(4):111-113,125.
[3]林炳焜,程文明,于兰峰.基于组合预测模型的铁路集装箱运量预测[J].工业工程,2012,15(4):1-6.
[4]郭义浩,刘佳仑,刘明俊.水位与航道通航能力的关系研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2010(4):842-844.
[5]饶思梁.内河航道尺度与通航能力关系研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2011.
[6]马海峰.三峡枢纽过闸货运量预测分析及对策研究[J].中国水运,2015(3):23-25.
[7]内河通航标准:GB 50139-2004[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.