产业共性技术扩散中政府作用最优力度分析——基于变换的Bass模型
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摘要
基于一定理论假设将Bass模型中技术扩散的内部影响因素和外部影响因素分别与市场作用和政府作用对应起来,并着眼于政府作用对市场作用的"挤出"效应建立起政府作用与市场作用之间的函数关系,以此来对Bass模型进行变换,使其能刻画政府作用对产业共性技术扩散速度和时间路径的影响。基于变换的Bass模型,以最大化技术扩散速度为目标构建最优化问题以求得政府作用最优力度,由最优化问题可知政府作用对市场作用的"挤出"效应越大,最优政府作用力度就应该越小。还基于相关数据进行了数值模拟分析,并且验证了模型的有效性。研究认为:由于存在政府干预对市场作用的"挤出"效应,在促进产业共性技术扩散中需要把握最优的干预力度即政府作用最优力度,在量化政府作用和市场作用的基础上,求解出来的政府作用最优力度系数可为政府有效和适当干预技术扩散提供理论上的一个尺量。
Based on certain theoretical assumptions, the internal and external factors of technology diffusion in the Bass model were respectively related to the role of the market and the role of the government, and the functional relationship between the government role and the market role was established by focusing on the "crowd-out" effect of the role of the government on the market. The functional relationship between the two was used to transform the Bass model so that it can portray the influence of the government's role on the diffusion speed and time path of the industrial General Purpose Technologies. Based on the transformed Bass model, the optimization was constructed with the goal of maximizing the diffusion rate of technology in order to obtain the optimal effect of the government. From the optimization, it was known that the greater the "crowd-out" effect of the government role on the market, the smaller the optimal effect of the government. The article also carried out numerical simulation based on relevant data and verified the validity of the model. The study argues that due to the"crowd-out" effect of government intervention on the market, it is necessary to grasp the optimal intervention force, that is, the optimal effect of the government in promoting the diffusion of industrial General Purpose Technologies, and on the basis of quantifying the effects of government and the market, the optimal effect coefficient of government solved can provide a theoretical measure for the government's intervening in the diffusion of technologies effectively and properly.
Based on certain theoretical assumptions, the internal and external factors of technology diffusion in the Bass model were respectively related to the role of the market and the role of the government, and the functional relationship between the government role and the market role was established by focusing on the "crowd-out" effect of the role of the government on the market. The functional relationship between the two was used to transform the Bass model so that it can portray the influence of the government's role on the diffusion speed and time path of the industrial General Purpose Technologies. Based on the transformed Bass model, the optimization was constructed with the goal of maximizing the diffusion rate of technology in order to obtain the optimal effect of the government. From the optimization, it was known that the greater the "crowd-out" effect of the government role on the market, the smaller the optimal effect of the government. The article also carried out numerical simulation based on relevant data and verified the validity of the model. The study argues that due to the"crowd-out" effect of government intervention on the market, it is necessary to grasp the optimal intervention force, that is, the optimal effect of the government in promoting the diffusion of industrial General Purpose Technologies, and on the basis of quantifying the effects of government and the market, the optimal effect coefficient of government solved can provide a theoretical measure for the government's intervening in the diffusion of technologies effectively and properly.
引文
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[15]H SU P,YANG W.General purpose technologies,financial market integration,and the cross section of stock returns[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016,36(2):12-25.
[16]HAILIN L,BIN W,BAIBING L,TOM W J.ICT as a general-purpose technology:the productivity of ict in The United States revisited[J].Information Economics and Policy,2016,36(1):10-25.
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[18]邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2008.
[19]张振刚,景诗龙.我国产业集群共性技术创新平台模式比较研究---基于政府作用的视角[J].科技进步与对策,2008(7):79-81.
[20]李纪珍,邓衢文.产业共性技术供给和扩散的多重失灵[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011(7):5-10.
[21]李纪珍.共性技术供给与扩散的模式选择[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011(10):5-12.
[22]蒋键.我国产业共性技术研发与产业化的政府资助模式与管理研究[J].科技管理研究,2015(17):19-24.
[23]BASS F M.Why the Bass model fits without decision variables[J].Marketing Science,1994,13(3):203-223.
[24]BASS F M.A new product growth for model consumer durables[J].Management Science,2004,50(12):1825-1832.
[25]李平,刘利利,李蕾蕾.政府研发资助是否促进了技术进步---来自66个国家和地区的证据[J].科学学研究,2016(11):1625-1636.
[26]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数---各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
[27]纪江明,胡伟.中国城市公共服务满意度的熵权TOPSIS指数评价[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(3):41-51.
[28]FAREENA S,JOHN U,DONALD R.A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1990,27(1):70-77.
[29]JAIN D P,RAMAN K.A stochastic generalization of the Bass diffusion-model[J].Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research,1992,51(3):216-228.
[30]LIM J Y,NAM C,KIM S,RHEE H,LEE E,LEE H.Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China:a study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model[J].Telecommunications Policy,2012,36(10-11):858-871.
[31]THOMAS T.Iterative Bass model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the eagle ford shale[J].Energy,2015,93(1):580-588.
[32]FARNAZ G,LEI H,GORAYA P,OLIVAR E.Applying looks-like analysis and Bass diffusion model techniques to forecast a neurostimulator device with no historical data[J].Procedia Manufacturing,2017,11(1):1916-1924.
[33]孟繁东,何明升.采用优化的Bass模型对中国IPv4标准扩散趋势研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2008(1):137-142.
[34]孟繁东,何明升.基于Bass模型的非恒定影响标准扩散模型研究[J].航天标准化,2008(3):4-9.
[35]孟庆春,丁雪.基于Bass模型的城镇家用电脑市场扩散研究[J].经济管理,2009(4):105-110.
[36]任斌,邵鲁宁,尤建新.基于创新扩散理论的中国电动汽车广义Bass模型[J].软科学,2013(4):17-22.
[37]谢建中,杨育,陈倩,李斐.基于改进Bass模型的短生命周期产品需求预测模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015(1):48-56.
[2]李纪珍.产业共性技术供给体系[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004.
[3]韩元建,陈强.共性技术扩散的影响因素分析及对策[J].中国科技论坛,2017(1):53-59.
[4]邹樵.共性技术扩散中的政府行为[J].中国行政管理,2008(2):66-68.
[5]HELPMAN E,TRAJTENBERG M.Diffusion of general purpose technologies[J].General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth,1998,15(1):85-119.
[6]BOYAN J,PETER R.General purpose technologies[J].Elsevier,2005,30(3):1181-1224.
[7]BRENT G.Diffusion of general-purpose technologies:understanding patterns in the electrification of US Manufacturing 1880-1930[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2005,14(5):745-773.
[8]JAN Y,MAURIZIO I,STUART G.Assessing the nature of nanotechnology:can we uncover an emerging general purpose technology?[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2008,33(3):315-329.
[9]LO S,DHANOOS S.Crossover inventions and knowledge diffusion of general purpose technologies:evidence from the electrical technology[J].The Journal of Economic History,2010,70(3):744-764.
[10]MARYANN P,JI W.An empirical test for general purpose technology:an examination of the Cohen-Boyer rDNA technology[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2012,21(2):249-275.
[11]AFONSO O,BANDEIRA A M.Effects of international diffusion of a general purpose technology on wage inequality[J].Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics,2013,54(2):203-220.
[12]RISTUCCIA C A,SOLOMOU S.Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth?electrical power as a case study[J].European Review of Economic History,2014,18(3):227-247.
[13]RAINER A,STROHMAIER R.Modeling the diffusion of general purpose technologies in an evolutionary multi-sector framework[J].Empirica,2014,41(3):425-444.
[14]CLARKE G R G,QIANG C Z,XU l C.The internet as a general-purpose technology:firm-level evidence from around the world[J].Economics Letters,2015,135(1):24-27.
[15]H SU P,YANG W.General purpose technologies,financial market integration,and the cross section of stock returns[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016,36(2):12-25.
[16]HAILIN L,BIN W,BAIBING L,TOM W J.ICT as a general-purpose technology:the productivity of ict in The United States revisited[J].Information Economics and Policy,2016,36(1):10-25.
[17]RAINER A,FRANCO N,MASSIMO R.Innovation diffusion,general purpose gechnologies and dconomic growth[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2017,40(1):72-80.
[18]邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2008.
[19]张振刚,景诗龙.我国产业集群共性技术创新平台模式比较研究---基于政府作用的视角[J].科技进步与对策,2008(7):79-81.
[20]李纪珍,邓衢文.产业共性技术供给和扩散的多重失灵[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011(7):5-10.
[21]李纪珍.共性技术供给与扩散的模式选择[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011(10):5-12.
[22]蒋键.我国产业共性技术研发与产业化的政府资助模式与管理研究[J].科技管理研究,2015(17):19-24.
[23]BASS F M.Why the Bass model fits without decision variables[J].Marketing Science,1994,13(3):203-223.
[24]BASS F M.A new product growth for model consumer durables[J].Management Science,2004,50(12):1825-1832.
[25]李平,刘利利,李蕾蕾.政府研发资助是否促进了技术进步---来自66个国家和地区的证据[J].科学学研究,2016(11):1625-1636.
[26]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数---各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
[27]纪江明,胡伟.中国城市公共服务满意度的熵权TOPSIS指数评价[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(3):41-51.
[28]FAREENA S,JOHN U,DONALD R.A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1990,27(1):70-77.
[29]JAIN D P,RAMAN K.A stochastic generalization of the Bass diffusion-model[J].Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research,1992,51(3):216-228.
[30]LIM J Y,NAM C,KIM S,RHEE H,LEE E,LEE H.Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China:a study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model[J].Telecommunications Policy,2012,36(10-11):858-871.
[31]THOMAS T.Iterative Bass model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the eagle ford shale[J].Energy,2015,93(1):580-588.
[32]FARNAZ G,LEI H,GORAYA P,OLIVAR E.Applying looks-like analysis and Bass diffusion model techniques to forecast a neurostimulator device with no historical data[J].Procedia Manufacturing,2017,11(1):1916-1924.
[33]孟繁东,何明升.采用优化的Bass模型对中国IPv4标准扩散趋势研究[J].大连理工大学学报,2008(1):137-142.
[34]孟繁东,何明升.基于Bass模型的非恒定影响标准扩散模型研究[J].航天标准化,2008(3):4-9.
[35]孟庆春,丁雪.基于Bass模型的城镇家用电脑市场扩散研究[J].经济管理,2009(4):105-110.
[36]任斌,邵鲁宁,尤建新.基于创新扩散理论的中国电动汽车广义Bass模型[J].软科学,2013(4):17-22.
[37]谢建中,杨育,陈倩,李斐.基于改进Bass模型的短生命周期产品需求预测模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015(1):48-56.