互联网环境下公共政策传播机制研究——基于公众认知误差的分析
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摘要
在互联网环境下,公众互动频率和影响方式日益复杂,公共政策的传播效果变得难以预测。基于公众认知误差,采用系统动力学方法构建公共政策传播模型,并运用MATLAB仿真软件进行分析,针对意见领袖对公共政策传播的影响效果进行了量化分析。结果表明,在负面态度下,认知误差会使公众更加趋于一致,但趋于一致的程度和方向存在差异;随着认知误差的增大,会形成意见领袖,并且对公共政策传播产生显著的影响。最后,文章从优化政府信息发布和引导意见领袖角度给出了合理的建议。
Under the background of the internet,the frequency of interaction and the way of influence among publics are increasingly complicated,thus it is hard to predict the communicating effect of the public policy.Based on the public cognitive error,this paper constructs a public policy communication model with the system dynamics method and uses the MATLAB simulation software to analyze the impact of opinion leaders on the public policy communication quantitatively. The results show that the public will be more consistent with the cognitive error with the negative attitude,but there exist differences in the degree and the direction of their consistency. With the increase of the cognitive error,opinion leaders will come into being and they have a significant impact on the communication of public policies. Finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward from the perspective of optimizing the government information issue and how to guide the opinion leaders.
Under the background of the internet,the frequency of interaction and the way of influence among publics are increasingly complicated,thus it is hard to predict the communicating effect of the public policy.Based on the public cognitive error,this paper constructs a public policy communication model with the system dynamics method and uses the MATLAB simulation software to analyze the impact of opinion leaders on the public policy communication quantitatively. The results show that the public will be more consistent with the cognitive error with the negative attitude,but there exist differences in the degree and the direction of their consistency. With the increase of the cognitive error,opinion leaders will come into being and they have a significant impact on the communication of public policies. Finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward from the perspective of optimizing the government information issue and how to guide the opinion leaders.
引文
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[2]李从东,洪宇翔.面向突发事件的社会情绪稳定性建模方法研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(1):146-151.
[3]宋好.微博时代“意见领袖”特点探析[J].今传媒,2010(11):96-97.
[4]郭庆光.传播学教程[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[5]毛劲歌,张铭铭.互联网背景下公共政策传播创新探析[J].中国行政管理,2017(9):111-115.
[6]黄敏学,王琦缘,肖邦明,等.消费咨询网络中意见领袖的演化机制研究——预期线索与网络结构[J].管理世界,2015(7):109-121.
[7](美)戴维·迈尔斯.社会心理学[M]. 11版.北京:人民邮电出版社,2016.
[8]殷雁君,唐卫清.基于观点认同的群体情绪模型[J].计算机应用研究,2013,30(10):2996-3000.
[9]刘雪明,沈志军.公共政策的传播机制[J].南通大学学报(社会科学版),2011(2):136-140.
[10]刘雪明,沈志军.当代中国公共政策传播机制的障碍及原因分析[J].行政论坛,2013(2):71-75.
[11]许磊.全媒体时代公共政策传播中的政府责任研究[J].传媒,2017(22):90-93.
[12]刘淑华,潘丽婷,魏以宁.地方政府危机治理政策传播与信息交互行为研究——基于大数据分析的视角[J].公共行政评论,2017(1):4-28.