跨喜马拉雅地区投资环境指数估算以及对INFDI的影响——基于对该地区五个主要经济体的实证分析
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摘要
跨喜马拉雅地区是"海上丝绸之路"重要地区,对其投资环境与外商直接投资(INFDI)关系的考察对"海上丝绸之路"建设具有重要意义。以广义跨喜马拉雅地区五个主要经济体为样本,基于PRS集团的ICRG数据对其金融、经济、政治和综合投资环境指数进行估算,并实证分析该地区投资环境对INFDI的影响。结果显示跨喜马拉雅地区金融、经济和综合投资环境总体向好并出现一体化趋势,但政治投资环境未见好转,各国差异巨大。跨喜马拉雅地区投资环境对INFDI流量有较显著影响,但该地区投资环境指标对INFDI影响机制尚需完善。
The Trans-Himalaya region is an important part of the"Maritime Silk Road". The investigation over the relationship between investment environment and inward foreign direct investment( INFDI) is of great significance to the construction of the "Maritime Silk Road". In this paper,the five major economies in the Trans-Himalaya region are sampled,of which financial,economic,political,and overall investment environment index are estimated based on the PRRG Group's ICRG data,and the empirical analyses on the impact of the investment environment over INFDI are conducted bases on the investment environment index estimations. The analyses show that( 1) the financial,economic and over investment environments in Trans-Himalaya region are improving and integrating regionally,but( 2) the political investment environment has been even deteriorating,and the political differences among countries are huge. And the empirical results manifest that( 3) in trans-Himalayas region,the impacting channels of investment environment on INFDI exist,but( 4) the operational mechanism between the investment environment indicators and INFDI has not yet been functional well. The analysis findings of this paper are conducive to recognizing and managing investment risks in the region,and inspiring for host governments in the region to lay out policies in promoting INFDI.
The Trans-Himalaya region is an important part of the"Maritime Silk Road". The investigation over the relationship between investment environment and inward foreign direct investment( INFDI) is of great significance to the construction of the "Maritime Silk Road". In this paper,the five major economies in the Trans-Himalaya region are sampled,of which financial,economic,political,and overall investment environment index are estimated based on the PRRG Group's ICRG data,and the empirical analyses on the impact of the investment environment over INFDI are conducted bases on the investment environment index estimations. The analyses show that( 1) the financial,economic and over investment environments in Trans-Himalaya region are improving and integrating regionally,but( 2) the political investment environment has been even deteriorating,and the political differences among countries are huge. And the empirical results manifest that( 3) in trans-Himalayas region,the impacting channels of investment environment on INFDI exist,but( 4) the operational mechanism between the investment environment indicators and INFDI has not yet been functional well. The analysis findings of this paper are conducive to recognizing and managing investment risks in the region,and inspiring for host governments in the region to lay out policies in promoting INFDI.
引文
[1]李涛.跨越喜马拉雅的合作——第五届中国-南亚文化论坛会议综述[J].南亚研究季刊,2015(4):106-108.
[2]徐君,姚勇.喜马拉雅区域经验与知识谱系构建[J].中国藏学,2017(3):64-74.
[3]金仁淑.中日对东盟投资比较及中国的策略——“一带一路”倡议下的新考量[J].现代日本经济,2017(6):34-44.
[4]马文秀,乔敏健.“一带一路”国家投资便利化水平测度与评价[J].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(5):85-94.
[5]张素芹.资本市场助推“一带一路”建设[J].证券市场导报,2017(5):1.
[6]吴艳文.“一带一路”战略下我国企业海外投资的风险及防范[J].西安财经学院学报,2017(4):75-80.
[7]黄韵.“一带一路”背景下国际贸易争端解决机制[J].重庆社会科学,2017(6):92-98.
[8]徐秀良,杨飞.吴登盛执政时期缅甸的外资投资环境[J].东南亚南亚研究,2016(4):54-58; 107.
[9]王春丽.“一带一路”重要节点:南亚区域市场的投资环境与拓展对策[J].东南学术,2018(1):184-192.
[10]谌洁.对当前印度投资环境的综合分析[J].东南亚纵横,2009(4):89-92.
[11]姬虹.印度尼西亚投资环境及其市场分析[J].亚太经济,2004(6):28-31.
[12]郑国富.缅甸国际直接投资的特点、问题与前景[J].东南亚南亚研究,2014(1):69-72; 109.
[13]杨宏斌,杨志宁.印度利用外国直接投资政策的特点及新发展[J].南亚研究季刊,2003(2):9-13; 2.
[14]宋涛.中国对缅甸直接投资的发展特征及趋势研究[J].世界地理研究,2016(4):40-47.
[15]戢梦雪,李好.国际金融危机下印度外国直接投资政策的调整[J].南亚研究季刊,2009(3):37-41; 1.
[16]梅新育.在印度直接投资的风险分析[J].国际经济合作,2014(5):66-69.
[17]努努凯,凌常荣.外国直接投资对缅甸中小型企业的发展影响研究[J].当代经济,2017(12):6-9.
[18]李俊杰.投资环境研究综述[J].人文地理,2004(5):34-39.
[19]陆亚琴.国际直接投资与环境关系理论研究综述[J].经济问题探索,2010(12):175-178.
[20]张一博.投资环境基本理论综述[J].经济学导刊,2012(1):64-65.
[21]戴园晨.投资环境及其评价体系[J].中国社会科学,1994(1):39-46.
[22]Cerqueira P A,Martins R. Measuring the Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization Using a Panel Approach[J]. Economics Letter,2009,102(2):106-108.
[23]王海军.政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资—基于东道国与母国两个维度的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2012(1):110-116.
[24]韦军亮,陈漓高.政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响—基于动态面板模型的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(4):106-113.
[25]欧阳碧媛.中国企业对缅甸直接投资的风险及对策研究[J].经济研究参考,2016(29):87-90; 95.
[26]陆以全.对印投资的政治风险及其法律应对措施[J].南亚研究,2012(3):31-45.
[27]太平,李姣.中国企业对东盟国家直接投资风险评估[J].国际商务,2018(1):111-123.
[28]尤宏兵,黄鸶涵,温珺.不同投资动机下政治风险对中国在东盟直接投资的影响[J].商业研究,2017(12):90-98.
(1)联合国贸发会议在线数据库http://unctadstat.unctad.org.
(1)根据Cerqueira和Martins(2009)研究,同步指数值范围为(-∞,1],值越大同步性越高。下文同。
[2]徐君,姚勇.喜马拉雅区域经验与知识谱系构建[J].中国藏学,2017(3):64-74.
[3]金仁淑.中日对东盟投资比较及中国的策略——“一带一路”倡议下的新考量[J].现代日本经济,2017(6):34-44.
[4]马文秀,乔敏健.“一带一路”国家投资便利化水平测度与评价[J].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(5):85-94.
[5]张素芹.资本市场助推“一带一路”建设[J].证券市场导报,2017(5):1.
[6]吴艳文.“一带一路”战略下我国企业海外投资的风险及防范[J].西安财经学院学报,2017(4):75-80.
[7]黄韵.“一带一路”背景下国际贸易争端解决机制[J].重庆社会科学,2017(6):92-98.
[8]徐秀良,杨飞.吴登盛执政时期缅甸的外资投资环境[J].东南亚南亚研究,2016(4):54-58; 107.
[9]王春丽.“一带一路”重要节点:南亚区域市场的投资环境与拓展对策[J].东南学术,2018(1):184-192.
[10]谌洁.对当前印度投资环境的综合分析[J].东南亚纵横,2009(4):89-92.
[11]姬虹.印度尼西亚投资环境及其市场分析[J].亚太经济,2004(6):28-31.
[12]郑国富.缅甸国际直接投资的特点、问题与前景[J].东南亚南亚研究,2014(1):69-72; 109.
[13]杨宏斌,杨志宁.印度利用外国直接投资政策的特点及新发展[J].南亚研究季刊,2003(2):9-13; 2.
[14]宋涛.中国对缅甸直接投资的发展特征及趋势研究[J].世界地理研究,2016(4):40-47.
[15]戢梦雪,李好.国际金融危机下印度外国直接投资政策的调整[J].南亚研究季刊,2009(3):37-41; 1.
[16]梅新育.在印度直接投资的风险分析[J].国际经济合作,2014(5):66-69.
[17]努努凯,凌常荣.外国直接投资对缅甸中小型企业的发展影响研究[J].当代经济,2017(12):6-9.
[18]李俊杰.投资环境研究综述[J].人文地理,2004(5):34-39.
[19]陆亚琴.国际直接投资与环境关系理论研究综述[J].经济问题探索,2010(12):175-178.
[20]张一博.投资环境基本理论综述[J].经济学导刊,2012(1):64-65.
[21]戴园晨.投资环境及其评价体系[J].中国社会科学,1994(1):39-46.
[22]Cerqueira P A,Martins R. Measuring the Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization Using a Panel Approach[J]. Economics Letter,2009,102(2):106-108.
[23]王海军.政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资—基于东道国与母国两个维度的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2012(1):110-116.
[24]韦军亮,陈漓高.政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响—基于动态面板模型的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(4):106-113.
[25]欧阳碧媛.中国企业对缅甸直接投资的风险及对策研究[J].经济研究参考,2016(29):87-90; 95.
[26]陆以全.对印投资的政治风险及其法律应对措施[J].南亚研究,2012(3):31-45.
[27]太平,李姣.中国企业对东盟国家直接投资风险评估[J].国际商务,2018(1):111-123.
[28]尤宏兵,黄鸶涵,温珺.不同投资动机下政治风险对中国在东盟直接投资的影响[J].商业研究,2017(12):90-98.
(1)联合国贸发会议在线数据库http://unctadstat.unctad.org.
(1)根据Cerqueira和Martins(2009)研究,同步指数值范围为(-∞,1],值越大同步性越高。下文同。