公共品供给、职业特征与农民工市民化的城市偏好
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摘要
农民工对不同类型城市表现出异质性偏好是新型城镇化的时代特征,公共品供给和职业层次承载着异质性偏好的民生本源。文章基于偏好分层理论,运用泊松模型和零膨胀负二项模型实证分析农民工对不同类型城市偏好及一致性的影响机理。研究表明:(1)个体特征、家庭背景等仍是影响农民工对不同城市偏好的基本因素,公共产品及职业特征指标具有很强的解释能力;(2)农民工对公共品供给的满意度越高,则其对大城市的偏好程度越弱,从而提高农民工偏好务工的一致性;(3)职业层次特征对农民工关于城市偏好的影响呈U形特征,对偏好务工一致性的影响呈倒U形态,中层职位农民工一致性较强。在推进市民化进程中,政府强化公共品供给的杠杆作用时,应通过产业培育发挥职业层次结构的稳定器作用。
The heterogeneity of farmers' urban migration preference is the age feature of new urbanization;the supply of public goods and vocational level are the livelihood origin of heterogeneous preference.Based on preference stratification theory,this paper employs Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyze the effects of migrant workers on different urban migration preference and consistency.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,individual characteristics,family background and so on are still the basic factors affecting farmers' urban migration preference,and public goods &vocational level show a strong explanation of farmers' urban migration preference;secondly,greater satisfaction of migrant workers from public goods weakens their preference for large cities,and leads to a stronger consistency in working preference;thirdly,vocational level characteristics have the U-shape impact on farmers' urban migration preference and inversed U-shape effect on the consistency in working preference,and migrant workers at medium-vocation level have stronger consistency.In the process of the advancement of urban citizen,governments strengthen the lever role of the supply of public goods,and also should exert the stabilization function of vocational level structure through industry cultivation.
The heterogeneity of farmers' urban migration preference is the age feature of new urbanization;the supply of public goods and vocational level are the livelihood origin of heterogeneous preference.Based on preference stratification theory,this paper employs Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyze the effects of migrant workers on different urban migration preference and consistency.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,individual characteristics,family background and so on are still the basic factors affecting farmers' urban migration preference,and public goods &vocational level show a strong explanation of farmers' urban migration preference;secondly,greater satisfaction of migrant workers from public goods weakens their preference for large cities,and leads to a stronger consistency in working preference;thirdly,vocational level characteristics have the U-shape impact on farmers' urban migration preference and inversed U-shape effect on the consistency in working preference,and migrant workers at medium-vocation level have stronger consistency.In the process of the advancement of urban citizen,governments strengthen the lever role of the supply of public goods,and also should exert the stabilization function of vocational level structure through industry cultivation.
引文
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[13]Lee E.S.Theory of migration[J].Demography,1966,3:47-57.
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[2]夏怡然.农民工定居地选择意愿及其影响因素分析——基于温州的调查[J].中国农村观察,2010,(3).
[3]戚迪明,张广胜.农民工流动与城市定居意愿分析——基于沈阳市农民工的调查[J].农业技术经济,2012,(4).
[4]费喜敏,王成军.基于推拉理论的农民工定居地选择意愿的实证研究[J].软科学,2014,(3).
[5]章雨晴,郑颂承.农民工城市定居意愿的代际比较——基于南京市284位农民工的调查[J].湖南农业大学学报,2013,(2).
[6]叶鹏飞.农民工的城市定居意愿研究——基于七省(区)调查数据的实证分析[J].社会,2011,(2).
[7]夏显力,姚植夫,李瑶,贺强.新生代农民工定居城市意愿影响因素分析[J].社会,2012,(4).
[8]谢宝富,李阳,肖丽.广义居住因素对流动人口定居意愿的影响分析——以京、沪、穗城乡结合部流动人口为例[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2015,(2).
[9]汤云龙.农民工市民化:现实困境与权益实现[J].上海财经大学学报,2011,(5).
[10]郭元凯,胡晓江.农民工的就业结构对城市定居意愿的影响研究——基于10城市问卷调查的实证分析[J].城市观察,2015,(1).
[11]黄振华,万丹.农民的城镇定居意愿及其特征分析——基于全国30个省267个村4980位农民的调查[J].经济学家,2013,(11).
[12]杨哲,王茂福.政治资本形态对女性农民工城市定居意愿影响研究——基于CGSS2010数据[J].云南民族大学学报(社会科学版),2015,(1).
[13]Lee E.S.Theory of migration[J].Demography,1966,3:47-57.
[14]Lewis A.Economic Development with Unlimited Supplier of Labour[J].Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies,1954,22:139-156.
[15]Harris J.,Todaro M.Migration,Unemployment and Development:A two Sector Analysis[J].American Economic Review,1970,60:126-142.