城市管道系统风险分析及闭环管理研究
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摘要
为了探索构建城市管道系统安全及可靠性风险管理体系,基于FMECA,FTA&ETA及FRACAS等技术,建立涵盖故障模式辨识、影响及危害度分析、纠正措施执行等内容,且遵循闭环管理原则的科学、完整的风险闭环管理模式。针对城市管道安全及可靠性研究存在的局限性,引入FCE改进的FMECA和模糊灰关联FTA等定量计算方法,克服统计信息匮乏、数据模糊等瓶颈。研究结果表明:基于改进"3F"一体化技术的系统风险闭环管理体系契合城市管道风险管控需求,为多态、多要素耦合、不确定性复杂系统整体风险分析研究提供新思路。
In order to explore the construction of risk management system for safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,a scientific and complete risk closed- loop management mode,which covers the contents of failure mode identification,impact and criticality analysis,corrective action implementation,etc.,and follows the closed- loop management principle was established based on the technologies of FMECA,FTA & ETA and FRACAS. Aiming at the limitation existed in the research about the safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,the quantitative calculation methods including the improved FMECA by FCE,the fuzzy grey relational FTA and so on were introduced to overcome the bottleneck such as lacking of statistical information and the fuzzy data. The results showed that the systematic rick closed- loop management system based on improved " 3F" integration technology agrees with the demand of risk control on urban pipeline,and it provides a new idea for the study on the overall risk analysis of complex system with multi- state,multi- factor coupling and uncertainty.
In order to explore the construction of risk management system for safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,a scientific and complete risk closed- loop management mode,which covers the contents of failure mode identification,impact and criticality analysis,corrective action implementation,etc.,and follows the closed- loop management principle was established based on the technologies of FMECA,FTA & ETA and FRACAS. Aiming at the limitation existed in the research about the safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,the quantitative calculation methods including the improved FMECA by FCE,the fuzzy grey relational FTA and so on were introduced to overcome the bottleneck such as lacking of statistical information and the fuzzy data. The results showed that the systematic rick closed- loop management system based on improved " 3F" integration technology agrees with the demand of risk control on urban pipeline,and it provides a new idea for the study on the overall risk analysis of complex system with multi- state,multi- factor coupling and uncertainty.
引文
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[16]F.Caleyo,J.L.Gonz6lez,J.M.Hallen.A study on the reliability assessment methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defects[J].Pres.Ves.&Piping,2002(79):77-86.
[17]黄小美,彭世尼,杨俊杰,等.国内典型城市燃气管道失效调查与分析[J].煤气与热力,2010,30(9):26-29.HUANG Xiaomei,PENGShini,YANGJunjie,et al.Investigation and analysison failure of gas pipelinein typical domestic cities[J].GAS&HEAT,2010,30(9):26-29.
[18]李军,张宏,梁海滨,等.基于模糊综合评价的燃气管道第三方破坏失效研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):140-145.LI Jun,ZHANG Hong,LIANG Haibin,et al.Study on failure of gas pipeline due to third party damage basedon fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):140-145.
[2]骆正山,郜阳,王宏超,等.城市天然气管道综合定量风险评估[J].消防科学与技术,2013,32(6):666-670.LUO Zhengshan,GAO Yang WANG Hongchao,et al.Comprehensive quantitative risk assessment of urban nature gas pipeline[J].Fire Science and Technology,2013,32(6):666-670.
[3]杨凯,吕淑然,杨进.城市排水涵道油气混合气体爆炸研究现状及展望[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(2):108-111.YANG Kai,LV Shuran,YANG Jin.Research status and prospects of oil and gas mixture in urban drainage culvert[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2015,22(2):108-111.
[4]王春雪,吕淑然.城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(5):16-21.WANG Chunxue,LYU Shuran.Research on disaster chain of leakage disaster in urban gas pipeline[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(5):16-21.
[5]李军,张宏,梁海滨,等.基于模糊综合评价的燃气管道第三方破坏失效研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):140-145.LI Jun,ZHANG Hong,LIANG Haibin,et al.Study on failure of gas pipeline due to third party damage based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):140-145.
[6]陈业朋.3F技术在无人机飞控系统上的应用[D].成都:电子科技大学,2010,4.
[7]张宇栋.基于FTF方法的承压特种设备安全及可靠性研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2015,11.
[8]杨田,周密,谢俊,等.正向FTF方法在核级先导式安全阀故障分析中的应用[J].核动力工程,2010,31(1):65-69.YANG Tian,ZHOU Mi,XIE Jun,et al.Application of forward FTF method in failure analysis of pilot-operated safety valve[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2010,31(1):65-69.
[9]卿黎,张胜跃,张宇栋,等.电站锅炉承压部件失效模式分析[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(4):17-22.QING Li,ZHANG Shengyue,ZHANG Yudong,et al.Failure mode analysis for the pressure-bearing components of the power-generating boiler[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,16(4):17-22.
[10]李淑庆,张根保,任显林,等.基于3F技术的产品可靠性工程研究[J].现代制造工程,2007(3):5-7.LI Shuqing,ZHANG Genbao,REN Xianlin,et al.Research on product reliability engineering based on 3F technology[J].Modern Manufacturing Engineering,2007(3):5-7.
[11]李淑庆,高维森,刘晓松.新产品开发中3F一体化技术的应用[J].核动力工程,2009,30(2):124-128.LI Shuqing,GAO Weisen,LIU Xiaosong.Application of 3F integrated technology in new product development[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2009,30(2):124-128.
[12]陈玉超,蒋宏业,吴瑶晗,等.基于Bow-tie模型的城镇输油管道风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(4):148-152.CHEN Yuchao,JIANG Hongye,WU Yaohan,et al.Study on risk assessment method of urban oil pipeline based on Bow-tie model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(4):148-152.
[13]FABIANO B,CURRO F,PALAZZI E,et al.A framework for risk assessment and decision-making strategies in dangerous good transportation[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2002,93:1-15.
[14]JONKMAN S N,MVAN GELDER P H A J,KVRIJLING J.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economicdamage[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,A99:1-30.
[15]周真,马德仲,于晓洋,等.模糊灰关联分析方法在故障树分析中的应用[J].电机与控制学报,2012(3):60-64.ZHOU Zhen,MA Dezhong,YU Xiaoyan,et al.Application of fuzzy grey relational analysis in fault tree analysis[J].Electric Machines and Control,2012(3):60-64.
[16]F.Caleyo,J.L.Gonz6lez,J.M.Hallen.A study on the reliability assessment methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defects[J].Pres.Ves.&Piping,2002(79):77-86.
[17]黄小美,彭世尼,杨俊杰,等.国内典型城市燃气管道失效调查与分析[J].煤气与热力,2010,30(9):26-29.HUANG Xiaomei,PENGShini,YANGJunjie,et al.Investigation and analysison failure of gas pipelinein typical domestic cities[J].GAS&HEAT,2010,30(9):26-29.
[18]李军,张宏,梁海滨,等.基于模糊综合评价的燃气管道第三方破坏失效研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):140-145.LI Jun,ZHANG Hong,LIANG Haibin,et al.Study on failure of gas pipeline due to third party damage basedon fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):140-145.