配电终端失效分布类型判断及失效率估算
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摘要
配电终端的可靠性直接影响整个配电自动化系统的稳定运行。为合理预测其失效趋势,研究了配电终端失效分布类型判断及失效率估算方法。首先根据经验分布函数,初步判断配电终端某模块的失效分布函数,并利用参数估计和拟合优度检验,确定该模块的失效分布类型;然后根据所得参数和失效分布函数求得该模块的失效率函数,进一步求和得到整个配电终端的失效率;最后拟合得到的失效率函数符合一般设备的"浴盆曲线"特征,通过案例验证了所提方法可行而有效。
The reliability of distribution terminals directly affects the stability of the whole distribution automation system. To predict its failing trend,a method for judging the failure distribution type and estimating the failure rate is proposed. Firstly,the failure distribution function of a module in the distribution terminal is judged according to an empirical distribution function,and then the failure distribution type of the module is determined through parameter estimation and goodness of fitting tests. Secondly,the failure rate function of the module is calculated using the obtained parameters and failure distribution function,and the failure rate of the whole distribution terminal can be calculated by summation. Finally,the failure rate function obtained through fitting can satisfy the"Bathtub"curve,which is also a characteristic of general equipment,and the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method are verified through a case study.
The reliability of distribution terminals directly affects the stability of the whole distribution automation system. To predict its failing trend,a method for judging the failure distribution type and estimating the failure rate is proposed. Firstly,the failure distribution function of a module in the distribution terminal is judged according to an empirical distribution function,and then the failure distribution type of the module is determined through parameter estimation and goodness of fitting tests. Secondly,the failure rate function of the module is calculated using the obtained parameters and failure distribution function,and the failure rate of the whole distribution terminal can be calculated by summation. Finally,the failure rate function obtained through fitting can satisfy the"Bathtub"curve,which is also a characteristic of general equipment,and the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method are verified through a case study.
引文
[1]李肖军(Li Xiaojun).配电自动化终端技术探讨(Discussion on distribution automation terminal technology)[J].科技咨询(Science&Technology Information),2014(15):120-121.
[2]徐丙垠,李天友(Xu Bingyin,Li Tianyou).配电自动化若干问题的探讨(Investigations to some distribution automation issues)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2010,34(9):81-86.
[3]刘振亚.智能电网知识读本[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2010.
[4]王益民.实用型配电自动化技术[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[5]陆一鸣,刘东,柳劲松,等(Lu Yiming,Liu Dong,Liu Jinsong,et al).智能配电网信息集成需求及模型分析(Information integration demand and model analysis for smart distribution grid)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2010,34(8):1-4,96.
[6]赵江河,王立岩(Zhao Jianghe,Wang Liyan).智能配电网的信息架构(Information structure of smart distribution network)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2009,33(15):26-29,75.
[7]林功平,徐石明,罗剑波(Lin Gongping,Xu Shiming,Luo Jianbo).配电自动化终端技术分析(Technologies of distribution automation terminal)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2003,27(12):59-62.
[8]徐丙垠,李天友,薛永瑞(Xu Bingyin,Li Tianyou,Xue Yongrui).智能配电网与配电自动化(Smart grid from the perspective of demand response)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2009,33(17):38-41,55.
[9]刘健,程红丽,张志华(Liu Jian,Cheng Hongli,Zhang Zhihua).配电自动化系统中配电终端配置数量规划(Planning of terminal unit amount in distribution automation system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(12):44-50.
[10]王哲,葛磊蛟,王浩鸣(Wang Zhe,Ge Leijiao,Wang Haoming).10 k V配电网馈线自动化的优化配置方式(Optimal configuration of 10 k V feeder automation for distribution systems)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(3):65-70.
[11]韩国政,徐丙垠(Han Guozheng,Xu Bingyin).基于IEC61850标准的智能配电终端建模(Modeling of intelligent distribution terminal according to IEC61850)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2011,31(2):104-107.
[12]丛伟,路庆东,田崇稳,等(Cong Wei,Lu Qingdong,Tian Chongwen,et al).智能配电终端及其标准化建模(Smart distribution terminal unit and its standardized modeling)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(10):6-12.
[13]Qin Lijun,Wang Lei,Wang Ying,et al.IEC 61850 based distribution terminal unit[C]//The 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies,Weihai,China,2011:842-846.
[14]韩国政,徐丙垠,索南加乐,等(Han Guozheng,Xu Bingyin,Suonan Jiale,et al).配电终端自动发现技术的实现(Implementation of automatic discovery technology for distribution terminal)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(18):82-85.
[15]王旭东,庄剑,葛磊蛟,等(Wang Xudong,Zhuang Jian,Ge Leijiao,et al).基于BSC的用户能源综合效益评估(Research on user’s energy comprehensive benefit evaluation based on balanced score card method)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2015,27(S):114-119.
[16]苏傲雪,范明天,张祖平(Su Aoxue,Fan Mingtian,Zhang Zuping).配电系统元件故障率的估算方法研究(A new approach for the evaluation of failure rates on distribution system components)[J].电力系统保护与控制(Power System Protection and Control),2013,41(19):61-66.
[17]卢锦玲,杨晓东,粟然,等(Lu Jinling,Yang Xiaodong,Li Ran,et al).一种基于贝叶斯网络的配电网可靠性评估方法(Application of Bayesian network in reliability evaluation of power distribution system)[J].华北电力大学学报(Journal of North China Electric Power University),2004,31(2):18-19.
[18]潘乐真,张焰,俞国勤,等(Pan Lezhen,Zhang Yan,Yu Guoqin,et al).状态检修决策中的电气设备故障率推算(Prediction of electrical equipment failure rate for condition-based maintenance decision-making)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2010,30(2):91-94.
[19]冯管印,何川,丁坚勇,等(Feng Guanyin,He Chuan,Ding Jianyong,et al).电气设备故障率演化推算综合算法(Synthesis algorithm of electrical equipment failure rate evolution)[J].武汉大学学报:工学版(Engineering Journal of Wuhan University),2014,47(2):244-249.
[20]陈凡,卫志农,黄正,等(Chen Fan,Wei Zhinong,Huang Zheng,et al).大电网可靠性评估状态分析实现方法的比较(Comparison of implementation methods for state analysis of bulk power system reliability)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(11):82-87.
[21]杨懿,潘英俊,金成(Yang Yi,Pan Yingjun,Jin Cheng).潜水电泵故障率分布的试验研究(Experimental study on failure distribution of submersible motor-pump)[J].机械工程学报(Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering),2007,43(2):173-177.
[22]赵永翔.低周疲劳短裂纹行为和可靠性分析[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2006.
[23]王守国.电子元器件的可靠性[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.
[2]徐丙垠,李天友(Xu Bingyin,Li Tianyou).配电自动化若干问题的探讨(Investigations to some distribution automation issues)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2010,34(9):81-86.
[3]刘振亚.智能电网知识读本[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2010.
[4]王益民.实用型配电自动化技术[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[5]陆一鸣,刘东,柳劲松,等(Lu Yiming,Liu Dong,Liu Jinsong,et al).智能配电网信息集成需求及模型分析(Information integration demand and model analysis for smart distribution grid)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2010,34(8):1-4,96.
[6]赵江河,王立岩(Zhao Jianghe,Wang Liyan).智能配电网的信息架构(Information structure of smart distribution network)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2009,33(15):26-29,75.
[7]林功平,徐石明,罗剑波(Lin Gongping,Xu Shiming,Luo Jianbo).配电自动化终端技术分析(Technologies of distribution automation terminal)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2003,27(12):59-62.
[8]徐丙垠,李天友,薛永瑞(Xu Bingyin,Li Tianyou,Xue Yongrui).智能配电网与配电自动化(Smart grid from the perspective of demand response)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2009,33(17):38-41,55.
[9]刘健,程红丽,张志华(Liu Jian,Cheng Hongli,Zhang Zhihua).配电自动化系统中配电终端配置数量规划(Planning of terminal unit amount in distribution automation system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(12):44-50.
[10]王哲,葛磊蛟,王浩鸣(Wang Zhe,Ge Leijiao,Wang Haoming).10 k V配电网馈线自动化的优化配置方式(Optimal configuration of 10 k V feeder automation for distribution systems)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(3):65-70.
[11]韩国政,徐丙垠(Han Guozheng,Xu Bingyin).基于IEC61850标准的智能配电终端建模(Modeling of intelligent distribution terminal according to IEC61850)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2011,31(2):104-107.
[12]丛伟,路庆东,田崇稳,等(Cong Wei,Lu Qingdong,Tian Chongwen,et al).智能配电终端及其标准化建模(Smart distribution terminal unit and its standardized modeling)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(10):6-12.
[13]Qin Lijun,Wang Lei,Wang Ying,et al.IEC 61850 based distribution terminal unit[C]//The 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies,Weihai,China,2011:842-846.
[14]韩国政,徐丙垠,索南加乐,等(Han Guozheng,Xu Bingyin,Suonan Jiale,et al).配电终端自动发现技术的实现(Implementation of automatic discovery technology for distribution terminal)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(18):82-85.
[15]王旭东,庄剑,葛磊蛟,等(Wang Xudong,Zhuang Jian,Ge Leijiao,et al).基于BSC的用户能源综合效益评估(Research on user’s energy comprehensive benefit evaluation based on balanced score card method)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2015,27(S):114-119.
[16]苏傲雪,范明天,张祖平(Su Aoxue,Fan Mingtian,Zhang Zuping).配电系统元件故障率的估算方法研究(A new approach for the evaluation of failure rates on distribution system components)[J].电力系统保护与控制(Power System Protection and Control),2013,41(19):61-66.
[17]卢锦玲,杨晓东,粟然,等(Lu Jinling,Yang Xiaodong,Li Ran,et al).一种基于贝叶斯网络的配电网可靠性评估方法(Application of Bayesian network in reliability evaluation of power distribution system)[J].华北电力大学学报(Journal of North China Electric Power University),2004,31(2):18-19.
[18]潘乐真,张焰,俞国勤,等(Pan Lezhen,Zhang Yan,Yu Guoqin,et al).状态检修决策中的电气设备故障率推算(Prediction of electrical equipment failure rate for condition-based maintenance decision-making)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2010,30(2):91-94.
[19]冯管印,何川,丁坚勇,等(Feng Guanyin,He Chuan,Ding Jianyong,et al).电气设备故障率演化推算综合算法(Synthesis algorithm of electrical equipment failure rate evolution)[J].武汉大学学报:工学版(Engineering Journal of Wuhan University),2014,47(2):244-249.
[20]陈凡,卫志农,黄正,等(Chen Fan,Wei Zhinong,Huang Zheng,et al).大电网可靠性评估状态分析实现方法的比较(Comparison of implementation methods for state analysis of bulk power system reliability)[J].电力系统及其自动化学报(Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA),2016,28(11):82-87.
[21]杨懿,潘英俊,金成(Yang Yi,Pan Yingjun,Jin Cheng).潜水电泵故障率分布的试验研究(Experimental study on failure distribution of submersible motor-pump)[J].机械工程学报(Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering),2007,43(2):173-177.
[22]赵永翔.低周疲劳短裂纹行为和可靠性分析[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2006.
[23]王守国.电子元器件的可靠性[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2014.