基于Weibull分布的智能电能表寿命预计
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摘要
分析了MTTF、失效率与寿命三者之间的关系,并采用Weibull分布失效率分段建模浴盆曲线,通过最小二乘法、相关系数法对Weibull分布参数进行估计,进而得到可靠度曲线函数,该方法为电能表的寿命分析提供了有效的理论依据。
The relationship among MTTF,failure rate and lifetime is analyzed. The Weibull distribution failure rate is used to model the segmentation of bathtub curve. The parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated by the least squares method and the correlation coefficient method. The distribution curve function of the reliability is obtained. The proposed method provides the theoretical basis for life expectancy of the energy meter.
The relationship among MTTF,failure rate and lifetime is analyzed. The Weibull distribution failure rate is used to model the segmentation of bathtub curve. The parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated by the least squares method and the correlation coefficient method. The distribution curve function of the reliability is obtained. The proposed method provides the theoretical basis for life expectancy of the energy meter.
引文
[1]依溥治,王健,徐人恒,等.基于马尔可夫修正的负荷预测模型在电力能效监测终端中的应用[J].电测与仪表,2015,52(9):11-18.Yi Puzhi,Wang Jian,Xu Renheng,et al.Load forecasting model based on Markov correction and its application in the energy efficiency monitoring terminal[J].Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2015,52(9):11-18.
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[16]曹克强,胡良谋,熊申辉,等.基于三参数威布尔分布的定量泵可靠性分析[J].现代制造工程,2016,(12):99-102.
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[18]董海鹰,黄巨朋,黄阿敏,等.基于Weibull分布的牵引变电所保护系统寿命预测[J].高电压技术,2015,41(11):3569-3575.Dong Haiying,Huang Jupeng,Huang Amin,et al.Life Prediction for Protection System of Traction Substation Based on Weibull Distribution[J].High Voltage Engineering,2015,41(11):3569-3575.
[19]田正其,徐晴,金萍,等.基于加速退化试验数据的智能电能表早期失效分析[J].电力工程技术,2017,36(1):98-101,112.
[2]依溥治,徐人恒,张明远,等.基于云平台的电能表可靠性预计系统设计与实现[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(5):96-100.Yi Puzhi,Xu Renheng,Zhang Mingyuan,et al.Design and implementation of the Watt-hour meter reliability prediction system based on Cloud platform[J].Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2017,54(5):96-100.
[3]袁金灿,马进,王思彤,等.智能电能表可靠性预计技术[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(7):161-166.Yuan Jincan,Ma Jin,Wang Sitong,et al.Reliability prediction of smart electrical energy meter[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(7):161-166.
[4]薛安成,罗麟,景琦,等.基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护装置老化失效率估算[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(24):72-78.Xue Ancheng,Luo Lin,Jing Qi,et al.Research on aging failure rate estimation of protective relay based on three-parameter Weibull distribution[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(24):72-78.
[5]张根保,唐贤进,廖小波,等.数控机床故障率分布曲线定量化建模及应用[J].重庆大学学报,2013,36(6):119-123,136.
[6]刘文彬,徐微,王庆锋.基于威布尔概率统计分析方法的设备可靠性预测研究[J].机械科学与技术,2012,31(4):664-668,673.
[7]李静,张显余,葛子厚,等.基于三参数威布尔分布的刹车胶囊可靠性分析[J].兵器装备工程学报,2017,38(3):134-136,169.
[8]王晓峰,张英芝,申桂香,等.基于ITLS和DE的加工中心三参数威布尔分布[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(6):84-88.Wang Xiaofeng,Zhang Yingzhi,Shen Guixiang,et al.Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution of Machining Center Based on ITLS and DE[J].Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2015,43(6):84-88.
[9]刘坤,王克文,祁小鹏.基于元件故障率曲线的配电网可靠性评估和配电终端优化配置[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(13):49-56.Liu Kun,Wang Kewen,Qi Xiaopeng.Reliability evaluation and distribution terminal optimal configuration of power distribution system based on bathtub curve of component failure rate[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(13):49-56.
[10]齐先军,彭翔天,张晶晶.基于浴盆形故障率函数的配电系统可靠性评估算法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(5):81-87.Qi Xianjun,Peng Xiangtian,Zhang Jingjing.Reliability evaluation algorithm of power distribution system based on bathtub-shaped hazard function[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(5):81-87.
[11]江玉彬.浴盆曲线在通信电源设备管理中的应用[J].通信电源技术,2013,30(1):34-36.Jiang Yubin.Application of the Bathtub Curve in Management on Communication Power Supply Device[J].Telecom Power Technology,2013,30(1):34-36.
[12]徐晓岭,邢兆飞,等.一种具有“浴盆”失效率的寿命分布的性质与统计分析[J/OL].数理统计与管理,1-17(2017-05-08).http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2242.O1.20170508.1501.001.html.DOI:10.13860/j.cnki.sltj.20170505-002.
[13]徐岩,白静,戴志辉.一种基于威布尔分布的继电保护装置可靠性分析的新方法[J].华北电力大学学报(自然科学版),2012,39(4):15-19.Xu Yan,Bai Jing,Dai Zhihui.A new method for protective relay reliabilityanalysis based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University,2012,39(4):15-19.
[14]张详坡,尚建忠,等.三参数Weibull分布竞争失效场合变应力加速寿命试验统计分析[J].机械工程学报,2014,50(14):42-49.
[15]徐微,胡伟明,孙鹏.基于两参数威布尔分布的设备可靠性预测研究[J].中国工程机械学报,2013,11(2):112-116.Xu Wei,Hu Weiming,Sun Peng.Equipment reliability prediction based on dual-parametric Weibull distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Construction Machinery,2013,11(2):112-116.
[16]曹克强,胡良谋,熊申辉,等.基于三参数威布尔分布的定量泵可靠性分析[J].现代制造工程,2016,(12):99-102.
[17]赵洪利,刘宇文.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的航空发动机故障风险预测[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2015,41(3):545-550.Zhao Hongli,Liu Yuwen.Forecasting for aero-engine failure risk based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2015,41(3):545-550.
[18]董海鹰,黄巨朋,黄阿敏,等.基于Weibull分布的牵引变电所保护系统寿命预测[J].高电压技术,2015,41(11):3569-3575.Dong Haiying,Huang Jupeng,Huang Amin,et al.Life Prediction for Protection System of Traction Substation Based on Weibull Distribution[J].High Voltage Engineering,2015,41(11):3569-3575.
[19]田正其,徐晴,金萍,等.基于加速退化试验数据的智能电能表早期失效分析[J].电力工程技术,2017,36(1):98-101,112.