飞机空调冷却子系统故障预测
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摘要
针对近年来飞机空调冷却子系统维修次数超警戒从而导致航空公司运营效率低下的问题,提出了一种基于某机型系统失效数据的失效模型建立新方法。对换拆率超警戒的热交换器这一特定部件运用扩展的Weibull分步建模,分别研究了其在2参数Weibull分步、3参数Weibull分步、双Weibull分步、三Weibull分步和2段Weibull分步模型下的拟合质量,运用更新过程解出期望失效数。随后对整个子系统运用幂律过程建模,使用拉普拉斯算法进行故障趋势预测。通过理论计算与实际维修资料对比,验证了模型准确性,修改了维修计划。该模型可用于航空公司对该子系统及其部件进行故障预测和拟定可靠性方案。
In recent years, the aircraft's air-conditioning cooling subsystem suffers too much maintenance, which results in the inefficient operation of airlines. In this article, a new method of failure modeling is proposed based on the failure-related data of a certain type of aircraft. As for the specific component-the heat exchanger with excessive maintenance, the extended model of Weibull distribution is applied. The analysis is conducted on the model's fitting quality under such conditions as two-parameter Weibull distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution, double Weibull distribution, three Weibull distribution and twophased Weibull distribution. Via the renewal process, the expected failure number is obtained. Then, the the whole subsystem is modeled with the aid of power-law process, and the Laplace algorithm is applied for failure forecasting. The accuracy of model is verified by a series of theoretical calculation and the data on maintenance, and based on this, the maintenance plan is modified.The model can be applied by airlines to forecast the failure of the subsystem and its components and to work out the reliabilityrealted solutions.
In recent years, the aircraft's air-conditioning cooling subsystem suffers too much maintenance, which results in the inefficient operation of airlines. In this article, a new method of failure modeling is proposed based on the failure-related data of a certain type of aircraft. As for the specific component-the heat exchanger with excessive maintenance, the extended model of Weibull distribution is applied. The analysis is conducted on the model's fitting quality under such conditions as two-parameter Weibull distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution, double Weibull distribution, three Weibull distribution and twophased Weibull distribution. Via the renewal process, the expected failure number is obtained. Then, the the whole subsystem is modeled with the aid of power-law process, and the Laplace algorithm is applied for failure forecasting. The accuracy of model is verified by a series of theoretical calculation and the data on maintenance, and based on this, the maintenance plan is modified.The model can be applied by airlines to forecast the failure of the subsystem and its components and to work out the reliabilityrealted solutions.
引文
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[12]李宏凯,李志,郭朝龙,等.基于四足机器人稳定性的对角步态规划[J].机械设计, 2016,33(1):64-69.
[13]侯学东.飞机环境控制系统的仿真研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学, 2010.
[14] Filimonov V, Sornette D. A stable and robust calibrationscheme of the log-periodic power law model[J]. SocialScience Electronic Publishing, 2011, 392(17):3698-3707.
[15]熊健.光滑经验分布函数的Cram’er-von Mises统计量[J].数理统计与应用概率, 1995(4):35-41.
[16] Tal J. Chapter 10-one, two, three testing:hypothesis testingand multiplicity[M]. Elsevier Inc:Strategy and Statistics inClinical Trials,2011:135-153.
[2] Regattieri A, Giazzi A, Gamberi M, et al. An innovativemethod to optimize the maintenance policies in an aircraft:general framework and case study[J]. Journal of Air TransportManagement, 2015, 44-45:8-20.
[3] Oliveira J L G, Tecchio C, Paiva K V, et al. Passiveaircraft cooling systems for variable thermal conditions[J].Applied Thermal Engineering, 2015, 79:88-97.
[4] Algarni A Z, Tozan M, Algarni A, et al. Failure forecastingof aircraft air conditioning/cooling pack with field data[J].Journal of Aircraft, 2012, 44(3):996-1002.
[5] Selchert T, Solntsev A. Device and method for coolingexhaust air of aircraft air-conditioning systems:US, WO/2009/144162[P]. 2009.
[6] Nacke R, Northcutt B, Mudawar I. Theory and experimentalvalidation of cross-flow micro-channel heat exchangermodule with reference to high Mach aircraft gas turbineengines[J]. International Journal of Heat&Mass Transfer,2011, 54(5-6):1224-1235.
[7] Sato O, Iwai H, Yoshida H. System design of aircraft airconditioning system(1st report:Effect of component forhigh-pressure water separation on system operation)[J].Transactions of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers,2014, 80(820):TEP0360-TEP0360.
[8]李超,王玉明,梁浩,等.阀门的可靠性评估方法研究[J].机械设计, 2015(1):13-16.
[9] Yao K. Uncertain calculus with renewal process[J]. FuzzyOptimization and Decision Making, 2012, 11(3):285-297.
[10] Sandborn P. Warranty cost analysis[M]. Springer London:Warranty Management and Product Manufacture, 2006:251-272.
[11]杜永恩,王生楠.飞机结构MSD失效概率的敏感性分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(5):658-661.
[12]李宏凯,李志,郭朝龙,等.基于四足机器人稳定性的对角步态规划[J].机械设计, 2016,33(1):64-69.
[13]侯学东.飞机环境控制系统的仿真研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学, 2010.
[14] Filimonov V, Sornette D. A stable and robust calibrationscheme of the log-periodic power law model[J]. SocialScience Electronic Publishing, 2011, 392(17):3698-3707.
[15]熊健.光滑经验分布函数的Cram’er-von Mises统计量[J].数理统计与应用概率, 1995(4):35-41.
[16] Tal J. Chapter 10-one, two, three testing:hypothesis testingand multiplicity[M]. Elsevier Inc:Strategy and Statistics inClinical Trials,2011:135-153.