宁夏水贫困地域分异的WPI-Geodetector测度与分析
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摘要
水贫困是长期以来备受西北地区关注的焦点问题。以宁夏为典型案例,通过建立水贫困评价指标体系,采用WPI模型计算2011—2015年区域水贫困水平,并运用地理探测器诊断出水贫困分异的主导因素,揭示水贫困动力机制,总结出水贫困地域类型。结果表明:(1)水贫困指数时空分异显著。宁夏WPI值由2011年的0.393上升到2015年的0.404,水贫困呈现缓慢改善态势,但地区差距在扩大。(2)水贫困主导因素时空变化明显。从目标层看,资源系统对宁夏水贫困影响最大,但其决定力在变小;环境系统的决定力在增大;使用系统的决定力最小。从指标层看,年降水量等10个指标q值始终在0.8以上,而年径流深等7个指标对宁夏水贫困决定力在下降。从分地区看,银川市水贫困指数分异决定力q值>0.5的有6个指标,需要提高用水效率、降低用水压力和合理配置生态用水;石嘴山市水贫困指数分异决定力q值>0.5的有11个指标,客观表明作为资源型地区发展转型过程中的矛盾所在;吴忠市水贫困指数分异决定力q值>0.5的有13个指标,今后着力要加强用水效率、用水管理和水资源高效利用水平等的统筹协调;固原市水贫困指数分异决定力q值>0.5的有4个指标,重点要提高设施水平和污染治理能力;中卫市水贫困指数分异决定力q值>0.5的有15个指标,要突出提高用水效率和设施水平。(3)水贫困地域类型划分。在水资源共同约束背景下将研究区划分为途径(设施水平)约束型区域、能力—使用(用水管理—用水效率)约束型区域、环境(用水压力—生态环境)约束型区域等3种水贫困地域类型。
Water poverty has been the focus issue in northwest China for a long time. Taking Ningxia as the study area in this study,the regional water poverty levels were calculated from 2011 to 2015 using the WPI model based on the built evaluation index system of water poverty. The key factors causing the differentiation of water poverty were analyzed by using WPI-Geodetector to reveal the mechanism of water poverty and to give the regional types of water poverty. The results showed as follows:( 1) The spatial-temporal variation of water poverty index was significant. Ningxia's WPI value was increased from 0. 393 in 2011 to 0. 404 in 2015 which indicated an overall slow improvement trend while its regional gap became magnified.( 2) The spatial-temporal variation of the leading factors in water poverty was obvious. From the target perspective,the resource system had the biggest impact on water poverty in Ningxia,while its weight was getting smaller. The weight of the environmental system was increasing. The weight of the utilization system was the least. From the index perspective,the q value of annual precipitation and other 10 indicators was always above 0. 8. However,the weights of 7 indicators s including annual runoff depth on the Ningxia water poverty were declining. In the regions' point of view,there were 6 indicators in determining water poverty index differentiation with the q value greater than 0. 5 for Yinchuan which suggested an urgent need to improve the water-use efficiency,reduce water pressure and to allocate reasonably the ecological water utilization. For Shizuishan City,there were 11 indicators with the q value greater than 0. 5 which,objectively indicated the contradiction in the transformation process of the resource-based region. For Wuzhong City,there were also 13 indicators with the q value greater than 0. 5 which suggested something needs to be done to enhance water-use efficiency,water-use management and to improve the planning and coordination of water resources. For Guyuan City,there were 4 indicators with the q value being more than 0. 5 which suggested a focus on improving water-use facilities and controlling pollution. For Zhongwei City,there were 15 indicators with the q value being more than 0. 5 which indicated the efficiency of water use and facilities should be improved.( 3) Water poverty regional types were classified. Sharing the sane background of water resources constraints,the study area were divided into 3 types including the pathway( facility level) constrained area,the capacity-utilization( water management andwater efficiency) constrained area and the environment( water-use pressure-ecological environment) constrained area.
Water poverty has been the focus issue in northwest China for a long time. Taking Ningxia as the study area in this study,the regional water poverty levels were calculated from 2011 to 2015 using the WPI model based on the built evaluation index system of water poverty. The key factors causing the differentiation of water poverty were analyzed by using WPI-Geodetector to reveal the mechanism of water poverty and to give the regional types of water poverty. The results showed as follows:( 1) The spatial-temporal variation of water poverty index was significant. Ningxia's WPI value was increased from 0. 393 in 2011 to 0. 404 in 2015 which indicated an overall slow improvement trend while its regional gap became magnified.( 2) The spatial-temporal variation of the leading factors in water poverty was obvious. From the target perspective,the resource system had the biggest impact on water poverty in Ningxia,while its weight was getting smaller. The weight of the environmental system was increasing. The weight of the utilization system was the least. From the index perspective,the q value of annual precipitation and other 10 indicators was always above 0. 8. However,the weights of 7 indicators s including annual runoff depth on the Ningxia water poverty were declining. In the regions' point of view,there were 6 indicators in determining water poverty index differentiation with the q value greater than 0. 5 for Yinchuan which suggested an urgent need to improve the water-use efficiency,reduce water pressure and to allocate reasonably the ecological water utilization. For Shizuishan City,there were 11 indicators with the q value greater than 0. 5 which,objectively indicated the contradiction in the transformation process of the resource-based region. For Wuzhong City,there were also 13 indicators with the q value greater than 0. 5 which suggested something needs to be done to enhance water-use efficiency,water-use management and to improve the planning and coordination of water resources. For Guyuan City,there were 4 indicators with the q value being more than 0. 5 which suggested a focus on improving water-use facilities and controlling pollution. For Zhongwei City,there were 15 indicators with the q value being more than 0. 5 which indicated the efficiency of water use and facilities should be improved.( 3) Water poverty regional types were classified. Sharing the sane background of water resources constraints,the study area were divided into 3 types including the pathway( facility level) constrained area,the capacity-utilization( water management andwater efficiency) constrained area and the environment( water-use pressure-ecological environment) constrained area.
引文
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[18]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[WANG Jinfeng,XU Chengdong.Geodetector:principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographical Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[19]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.[LIU Yansui,LI Jintao.Geographic detection and optimizing decision of the differentiation mechanism of rural poverty in China[J].Acta Geographical Sinica.2017,72(1):161-173.]
[20]聂思雨,莫淑红,王学凤,等.城市需水量模拟及不确定性分析方法研究[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):260-266.[NIE Siyu,MO Shuhong,WANG Xuefeng,et al.Method of simulation and uncertainty analysis for urban water demand[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):260-266.]
[2]CLAUDIA Heidecke.Development and evaluation of a regional water poverty index for Benin[R].International Food Policy Research Institute,Environment and Production Technology Division,2006:35.
[3]OHLSSON L.Water conflicts and social resource scarcity[R].Den Haag:European Geophysical Society,1999:12-23.
[4]SULLIVAN Caroline.The water poverty index:development and application at the community scale[J].Natural Resources Forum,2003,27(3):189-199.
[5]SULLIVAN Caroline,CHARLES J,ERIC C,et al.Mapping the Links between water,poverty and food Security[R].Wallingford,2005:23-24.
[6]MEIGH J,SULLIVAN Caroline.Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated approach:the example of the climate vulnerability index[J].Water Science and Technology,2005,54(1):69-78.
[7]PHIL Adkins,LEN Dyck.Canadian water sustainability index[J].Project Report,2007:1-27.
[8]孙才志,王雪妮.基于WPI-ESDA模型的中国水贫困评价及空间关联格局分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(6):1072-1082.[SUN Caizhi,WANG Xueni.Research on the assessment and spatial correlation pattern of water poverty in China based on WPI-ESDA model[J].Resources Science.2011,33(6):1072-1082.]
[9]孙才志,王雪妮,邹玮.基于WPI-LSE模型的中国水贫困测度及空间驱动类型分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(3):9-15.[SUN Caizhi,WANG Xueni,ZOU Wei.Measurement and spatial driving type analysis for water poverty in China based on WPI-LSE model[J].Economic Geography.2012,32(3):9-15.]
[10]王雪妮,孙才志,邹玮.中国水贫困与经济贫困空间耦合关系研究[J].中国软科学,2011,(12):180-192.[WANG Xueni,SUN Caizhi,ZOU Wei.Coupling relation analysis between water poverty and economic poverty in China[J].China Soft Science2011,(12):180-192.]
[11]刘理臣,靳素芳,付春燕,等.甘肃省水贫困时空分异及驱动因素研究[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(1):205-209.[LIU Lichen,JIN Sufang,FU Chunyan,et al.Spatial-temporal differentiation and driving factors of water poverty in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Science.2016,52(1):205-209.]
[12]杨玉蓉,谭勇,皮灿,等.湖南农村水贫困时空分异及其驱动机制[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):23-27.[YANG Yurong,TAN Yong,PI Can,et al.Spatial-temporal pattern of rural water poverty and its driving factors in the hilly area of Hunan Province[J].Areal Research and Development.2014,33(1):23-27.]
[13]杨玉蓉,张青山,邹君.基于村级尺度的湖南农村水贫困比较研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1027-2034.[YANG Yurong,ZHANG Qingshan,ZOU Jun.A comparative study of hunan rural water poverty based on village scale[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin.2014,23(7):1027-2034.]
[14]孙才志,董璐.基于灾害学视角的中国农村水贫困测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):83-92.[SUN Caizhi,DONG Lu.Rural water poverty assessment with the perspective of catastrophology in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment.2014,24(3):83-92.]
[15]孙才志,董璐,郑德凤.中国农村水贫困风险评价、障碍因子及阻力类型分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(5):895-905.[SUN Caizhi,DONG Lu,ZHENG Defeng.Rural water poverty risk evaluation,obstacle indicators and resistance paradigms in China[J].Resources Science.2014,36(5):895-905.]
[16]陈莉,石培基,魏伟,等.干旱区内陆河流域水贫困时空分异研究——以石羊河为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1373-1379.[CHEN Li,SHI Peiji,WEI Wei,et al.Water poverty temporal-spatial differentiation in the Shiyang River Basin[J].Resources Science.2013,35(7):1373-1379.]
[17]张辉,丁继新,王继峰.水贫困指数在河西走廊三大内陆河流域的应用[J].人民黄河,2012,34(7):42-44.[ZHANG Hui,DING Jixin,WANG Jifeng.Application of water poverty index at Three Inland River Basins in Hexi Corridor[J].Yellow River.2012,34(7):42-44.]
[18]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[WANG Jinfeng,XU Chengdong.Geodetector:principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographical Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[19]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.[LIU Yansui,LI Jintao.Geographic detection and optimizing decision of the differentiation mechanism of rural poverty in China[J].Acta Geographical Sinica.2017,72(1):161-173.]
[20]聂思雨,莫淑红,王学凤,等.城市需水量模拟及不确定性分析方法研究[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):260-266.[NIE Siyu,MO Shuhong,WANG Xuefeng,et al.Method of simulation and uncertainty analysis for urban water demand[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):260-266.]