财政补充养老保险:相机补充还是必要补充?
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摘要
随着人口老龄化的加快,我国养老保险缺口问题日益突出,而财政补充是解决养老保险缺口压力最小的一种工具。本文建立了相机财政补充和必要财政补充两种原则下的一般均衡模型研究养老保险缺口的财政补充问题。研究发现:在相机补充原则下,统筹账户缴费率上升会使财政补充下降,个人账户缴费率和所得税上升对财政补充的影响取决于人口、工资和遗产等因素,人口老龄化并不总会使财政补充上升,但生育率上升一定会使财政补充下降;但在必要补充原则下,统筹账户缴费率的上升并不总会使财政补充下降,而个人账户缴费率和所得税率的上升则会使财政补充上升。参数模拟结果显示,无论哪种财政补充原则,养老保险缺口的概率大于结余的概率,但相机财政补充原则下的补充金额期望小于必要补充原则下的期望。
With the deficiency of pension system has been increasingly severe,as the least troublesome instrument,supplementing pension system by revenue has been an important way to solve the pension trouble.We developed a general equilibrium model to discuss how much should the government supplement pension system under rule of opportunistic supplement and essential supplement.The results show that:under the rule of opportunistic supplement,opportunistic supplement was negatively related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account and fertility,but variably related to personal account,income tax or degree of population ageing;however,under the rule of essential supplement,essential supplement was positively related to premium of personal account,income tax rate or degree of population ageing,but negatively related to fertility and variably related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account.The result of simulation shows that,the probability of deficiency of pension system was greater than the probability of balance under whatever rules,but under rule of opportunistic supplement,the expectation of supplement may be less.
With the deficiency of pension system has been increasingly severe,as the least troublesome instrument,supplementing pension system by revenue has been an important way to solve the pension trouble.We developed a general equilibrium model to discuss how much should the government supplement pension system under rule of opportunistic supplement and essential supplement.The results show that:under the rule of opportunistic supplement,opportunistic supplement was negatively related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account and fertility,but variably related to personal account,income tax or degree of population ageing;however,under the rule of essential supplement,essential supplement was positively related to premium of personal account,income tax rate or degree of population ageing,but negatively related to fertility and variably related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account.The result of simulation shows that,the probability of deficiency of pension system was greater than the probability of balance under whatever rules,but under rule of opportunistic supplement,the expectation of supplement may be less.
引文
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[12]汪伟.人口老龄化、养老保险制度变革与我国经济增长——理论分析与数值模拟[J].金融研究,2012,(10):29—45.
[13]傅晓霞,吴利学.全要素生产率在中国地区差异中的贡献:兼与彭国华和李静等商榷[J].世界经济,2006,(9):12—22.
[14]赵志耘,刘晓路,吕冰洋.我国要素产出弹性估计[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(6):5—11.
[15]辛永容,陈圻,肖俊哲.要素产出弹性与技术进步贡献率的测算[J].管理科学,2009,(1):113—120.
[16]蒋云赟,任若恩.我国工业的资本收益率测算[J].经济学(季刊),2004,(3):877—888.
(1)事实上,在现行的税费制度和正常的经济及人口结构下,只要政府购买间接效用系数小于0.1,政府对社会保险缺口的补贴都将大于0,而政府购买间接效用系数小于0.1是比较合理的假设,甚至很多人不能从政府购买中得到效用。
(2)为统计年鉴公布的1%人口抽样调查数据。
[2]艾蔚.基于Lee-Cater模型的养老保险个人账户缺口研究[J].保险研究,2012,(2):104—112.
[3]徐晓华.中国基本养老保险金缺口的宏观控制[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2012,(5):105—112.
[4]金博轶,闫庆悦.养老保险统筹账户收支缺口省际差异研究[J].保险研究,2015,(6):89—99.
[5]Zeng,Y.Effects of Demographic and Retirement-Age Policies on Future Pension Deficits,with an Application to China[J].Population and Development Review,2011,37(3):553—569.
[6]Li,H.,Mérette,M.Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China:A Computable Overlapping—Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis[J].Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies,2005,3(3):263—277.
[7]刘昌平,殷宝明.新型农村社会养老保险财政补贴机制的可行性研究——基于现收现付平衡模式的角度[J].江西财经大学学报,2010,(3):35—40.
[8]Verbicˇ,M.,Majcen,B.,Nieuwkoop,R.V.Sustainability of the Slovenian Pension System:An Analysis with an Overlapping—Generations General Equilibrium Model[J].Eastern European Economics,2006,44(4):60—81.
[9]Wang,L.,Béland,D,Zhang,S.Pension Financing in China:Is There a Looming Crisis?[J].China Economic Review,2014,30(Supplement C):143—154.
[10]王金营,戈艳霞.全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势[J].人口研究,2016,(6):3—21.
[11]郭凯明,龚六堂.社会保障、家庭养老与经济增长[J].金融研究,2012,(1):78—90.
[12]汪伟.人口老龄化、养老保险制度变革与我国经济增长——理论分析与数值模拟[J].金融研究,2012,(10):29—45.
[13]傅晓霞,吴利学.全要素生产率在中国地区差异中的贡献:兼与彭国华和李静等商榷[J].世界经济,2006,(9):12—22.
[14]赵志耘,刘晓路,吕冰洋.我国要素产出弹性估计[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(6):5—11.
[15]辛永容,陈圻,肖俊哲.要素产出弹性与技术进步贡献率的测算[J].管理科学,2009,(1):113—120.
[16]蒋云赟,任若恩.我国工业的资本收益率测算[J].经济学(季刊),2004,(3):877—888.
(1)事实上,在现行的税费制度和正常的经济及人口结构下,只要政府购买间接效用系数小于0.1,政府对社会保险缺口的补贴都将大于0,而政府购买间接效用系数小于0.1是比较合理的假设,甚至很多人不能从政府购买中得到效用。
(2)为统计年鉴公布的1%人口抽样调查数据。