弹道导弹突防效能评估的马尔科夫模型
|
摘要
弹道导弹突防作战时面临着导弹防御系统多层拦截现状,突防每一层导弹防御系统时均可以看为独立过程,导弹突防状态具有随机性和无后效性等特点,导弹突防临近两层防御系统的过程近似为马尔科夫过程。将马尔科夫链转移概率引入突防多层导弹防御系统时导弹突防效能评估中,构建基于马尔科夫链的导弹突防效能评估模型,得到成功突防弹道导弹数量期望值及各随机状态的概率分布。分析结果表明,该方法简单易用,具有一定的应用价值。
While ballistic missile penetrates ballistic missile defence system(BMDs),it is face with multi-layered defence,and the penetration process of ballistic missile is independent in each defence layer. The penetration state is characteristic of randomness and non-after effect property. The penetration process between adjacent defence layer is markov process,this paper put markov transition probability into ballistic missile penetration effectiveness evaluation, constructs penetration effectiveness evaluation model based on discrete markov chain,and gains the expected value and the probability distribution of successfully penetrated missile. The research result shows that the method is easy to use and the model is effective.
While ballistic missile penetrates ballistic missile defence system(BMDs),it is face with multi-layered defence,and the penetration process of ballistic missile is independent in each defence layer. The penetration state is characteristic of randomness and non-after effect property. The penetration process between adjacent defence layer is markov process,this paper put markov transition probability into ballistic missile penetration effectiveness evaluation, constructs penetration effectiveness evaluation model based on discrete markov chain,and gains the expected value and the probability distribution of successfully penetrated missile. The research result shows that the method is easy to use and the model is effective.
引文
[1]J. Michael Gilmore:Director,operational test and evaluation(DOT&E). 2014 assessment of the ballistic missile defensesystem(BMDS)[R]. Alexandria VA,2015.
[2]Missile Defense Agency(MDA). Ballistic missile defensesystem(BMDS)[R].Alexandria VA,2013.
[3]樊奇,马春燕.美国GMD系统拦截弹技术发展研究[J].现代防御技术,2016,44(4):18-23.
[4]张泓,郭正玉.基于粒子群优化算法的旋转导弹姿态修正策略[J].兵器装备工程学报,2017,38(1):32-35.
[5]张洪波,郑伟,朱隆魁,等.弹道导弹进攻中多目标突防的效能分析[J].宇航学报,2007,28(2):394-397.
[6]余江波,郑健,黄伟.弹道导弹多层拦截模式仿真研究[J].现代防御技术,2015,43(5):58-62.
[7]朱艺,肖兵,林傲,等.弹道导弹威胁估计模型构建[J].火力与指挥控制,2016,41(2):117-123.
[8]汪民乐.弹道导弹突防效能研究综述[J].战术导弹技术,2012(1):1-6.
[9]汪民乐,李勇.弹道导弹突防效能分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2009.
[10]陆伟宁.弹道导弹攻防对抗技术[M].北京:中国宇航出版社,2007:331-355.
[11]贺绍桐,薛伦生,徐晨洋,等.弹道导弹突防作战效能评估研究[J].计算机仿真,2016,33(9):39-44.
[12]齐照辉,刘雪梅,梁伟,等.基于分层赋权的导弹防御效能模糊评估方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(9):1811-1815.
[13]杨晓凌,李志猛,祝江汉,等.电子对抗掩护弹道导弹突防作战效能评估方法[J].现代防御技术,2012,40(5):56-61.
[14]齐照辉,王祖尧,张为华.基于区间数多属性决策的导弹突防效能评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(11):1700-1703.
[15]李庆民,王红卫,李华.基于Markov过程的效果评估研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008,30(1):120-122.
[16]汪荣鑫.随机过程[M].2版.西安:西安交通大学出版社,2006:180-188.
[2]Missile Defense Agency(MDA). Ballistic missile defensesystem(BMDS)[R].Alexandria VA,2013.
[3]樊奇,马春燕.美国GMD系统拦截弹技术发展研究[J].现代防御技术,2016,44(4):18-23.
[4]张泓,郭正玉.基于粒子群优化算法的旋转导弹姿态修正策略[J].兵器装备工程学报,2017,38(1):32-35.
[5]张洪波,郑伟,朱隆魁,等.弹道导弹进攻中多目标突防的效能分析[J].宇航学报,2007,28(2):394-397.
[6]余江波,郑健,黄伟.弹道导弹多层拦截模式仿真研究[J].现代防御技术,2015,43(5):58-62.
[7]朱艺,肖兵,林傲,等.弹道导弹威胁估计模型构建[J].火力与指挥控制,2016,41(2):117-123.
[8]汪民乐.弹道导弹突防效能研究综述[J].战术导弹技术,2012(1):1-6.
[9]汪民乐,李勇.弹道导弹突防效能分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2009.
[10]陆伟宁.弹道导弹攻防对抗技术[M].北京:中国宇航出版社,2007:331-355.
[11]贺绍桐,薛伦生,徐晨洋,等.弹道导弹突防作战效能评估研究[J].计算机仿真,2016,33(9):39-44.
[12]齐照辉,刘雪梅,梁伟,等.基于分层赋权的导弹防御效能模糊评估方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(9):1811-1815.
[13]杨晓凌,李志猛,祝江汉,等.电子对抗掩护弹道导弹突防作战效能评估方法[J].现代防御技术,2012,40(5):56-61.
[14]齐照辉,王祖尧,张为华.基于区间数多属性决策的导弹突防效能评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(11):1700-1703.
[15]李庆民,王红卫,李华.基于Markov过程的效果评估研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008,30(1):120-122.
[16]汪荣鑫.随机过程[M].2版.西安:西安交通大学出版社,2006:180-188.