台风“尤特”登陆后复杂路径的环境场特征
|
摘要
台风"尤特"(1311)2013年8月13—19日登陆减弱后直达桂东北并停留打转,其后又转向西南移动,"尤特"残涡在广西境内生存活动了112 h,造成了大范围强降雨。使用常规与非常规观测资料,研究了"尤特"登陆后的环境场与其长生命期及复杂移动路径的关系。结果发现:"尤特"登陆北上阶段主要受大尺度环境场的引导气流主导,后因引导气流转向减弱,与变压梯度力近似达到平衡导致停留打转;南下弱冷空气卷入与西南气流辐合形成负变压槽,负变压槽中风向气旋性切变产生正涡度效应向"尤特"残涡输送,与西南气流充沛的水汽输送共同作用使"尤特"残涡得以长时间维持。弱冷空气卷入使中尺度变压场中的正变压加强,在变压梯度力与引导气流共同作用下,"尤特"残涡沿负变压槽向西南移动。
The typhoon UTOR(1311) first moved to northeast of Guangxi after its landing and then looped in the area before turn southwest after landing during 13—19 August 2013,with the characteristic of long-term life cycle of its residual vortex about 112 hours,caused widespread heavy rainstorm during its stay in Guangxi.The relationship between environment field,long-term life cycle and complex track after its landing were analyzed based on the conventional and non-conventional observational data.The results showed that during the northward period,UTOR was mainly leaded by large scale environmental steering flow and then UTOR looped in the northeast of Guangxi while the steering flow approximately balanced the variable pressure gradient force after its shifted and became weaker.Long-term life cycle of the residual vortex of UTOR was because of the positive vorticity advection that produced by the wind shear line of the negative pressure trough which was generated by the convergence between southward cold air and southwest air current.The meso-scale allobaric field became stronger after the weak cold air involved,the interaction of gradient force and upper steering flow lead to the southwest shift of UTOR.
The typhoon UTOR(1311) first moved to northeast of Guangxi after its landing and then looped in the area before turn southwest after landing during 13—19 August 2013,with the characteristic of long-term life cycle of its residual vortex about 112 hours,caused widespread heavy rainstorm during its stay in Guangxi.The relationship between environment field,long-term life cycle and complex track after its landing were analyzed based on the conventional and non-conventional observational data.The results showed that during the northward period,UTOR was mainly leaded by large scale environmental steering flow and then UTOR looped in the northeast of Guangxi while the steering flow approximately balanced the variable pressure gradient force after its shifted and became weaker.Long-term life cycle of the residual vortex of UTOR was because of the positive vorticity advection that produced by the wind shear line of the negative pressure trough which was generated by the convergence between southward cold air and southwest air current.The meso-scale allobaric field became stronger after the weak cold air involved,the interaction of gradient force and upper steering flow lead to the southwest shift of UTOR.
引文
[1]魏鼎文,张捷迁.台风路径的某些模拟实验研究[J].大气科学,1978,2(4):290-296.
[2]金一鸣.多预报量双重筛选逐步回归在台风路径预报中的应用[J].大气科学,1983,7(2):235-238.
[3]涂小萍,姚日升.ECMWF数值产品在热带气旋(TC)路径预报中的应用分析[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(6):759-764.
[4]Lam C C.Performance of the ECMWF model in forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea and parts of the western North Pacific[J].Meteorological Applications,2001,8(3):339-344.
[5]麻素红,瞿安祥,张眙.台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(3):322-328.
[6]黄伟,端义宏,薛纪善,等.热带气旋路径数值模式业务试验性能分析[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):578-587.
[7]陈联寿.台风研究和预报问题的评述[J].大气科学,1977,l(2):138-148.
[8]顾润源,朱官忠,李振海,等.影响我国的不同路径台风的对比分析[J].山东气象,1993(2):4-8.
[9]胡春梅,端义宏,余晖,等.华南地区热带气旋登陆前强度突变的大尺度环境诊断分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):377-382.
[10]雷小途.热带气旋路径偏折内在原因的动力分析[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(4):307-315.
[11]陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(6):672-681.
[12]黄小燕,金龙.基于主成分分析的人工智能台风路径预报模型[J].大气科学,2013,37(5):1154-1164.
[13]郭大梅,方建刚,侯建忠.陕西一次远距离台风暴雨天气分析[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1): 138-143.
[14]王文波,王旭,杨明,等.台风“达维”移动路径成因分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(1):75-80.
[15]王艳,郑栋,张义军.2000-2007年登陆台风中闪电活动与降水特征[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(3):321-328.
[16]颜文胜,林良勋,翁向宇,等.多普勒天气雷达速度图像在近海台风移动路径预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(6):665-671.
[17]沈新勇,毕明玉,张玲,等.中尺度对流系统对台风“风神”移动路径影响的研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(6):1173-1187.
[18]陆桂荣,王文,于怀征,等.台风“达维”对山东日照“08.03”暴雨天气过程的影响分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2): 255-261.
[19]牛金龙,吕学东,黄楚惠.一例台风诱发副高西北侧连续性暴雨过程的动力学机制分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):61-66.
[20]朱明,夏金.“苏拉”台风倒槽引发鄂西北特大暴雨的诊断分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(1):74-79.
[21]沈晓玲,孙琦旻.“菲特”台风暴雨成因分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):33-39.
[22]陈联寿,许映龙.中国台风特大暴雨综述[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):3-10.
[23]曹楚,王忠东,刘峰,等.2013年“菲特”台风暴雨成因及湿位涡诊断分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(4):86-92.
[24]陈见,赖珍权,罗小莉,等.“尤特”超强台风残留低涡引发的广西特大暴雨成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):19-25.
[25]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:525-527.
[26]张玉玲.中尺度大气动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:11-13.
[27]林宗桂,林开平,李耀先,等.一个高空槽前中尺度对流系统发生发展过程和机制研究[J].气象学报,2011,69(5):770-781.
[28]广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所.卫星与自动站资料分析处理系统2.0:中国,2014SR207872[P].2014-12-24.
[2]金一鸣.多预报量双重筛选逐步回归在台风路径预报中的应用[J].大气科学,1983,7(2):235-238.
[3]涂小萍,姚日升.ECMWF数值产品在热带气旋(TC)路径预报中的应用分析[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(6):759-764.
[4]Lam C C.Performance of the ECMWF model in forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea and parts of the western North Pacific[J].Meteorological Applications,2001,8(3):339-344.
[5]麻素红,瞿安祥,张眙.台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(3):322-328.
[6]黄伟,端义宏,薛纪善,等.热带气旋路径数值模式业务试验性能分析[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):578-587.
[7]陈联寿.台风研究和预报问题的评述[J].大气科学,1977,l(2):138-148.
[8]顾润源,朱官忠,李振海,等.影响我国的不同路径台风的对比分析[J].山东气象,1993(2):4-8.
[9]胡春梅,端义宏,余晖,等.华南地区热带气旋登陆前强度突变的大尺度环境诊断分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):377-382.
[10]雷小途.热带气旋路径偏折内在原因的动力分析[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(4):307-315.
[11]陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(6):672-681.
[12]黄小燕,金龙.基于主成分分析的人工智能台风路径预报模型[J].大气科学,2013,37(5):1154-1164.
[13]郭大梅,方建刚,侯建忠.陕西一次远距离台风暴雨天气分析[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1): 138-143.
[14]王文波,王旭,杨明,等.台风“达维”移动路径成因分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(1):75-80.
[15]王艳,郑栋,张义军.2000-2007年登陆台风中闪电活动与降水特征[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(3):321-328.
[16]颜文胜,林良勋,翁向宇,等.多普勒天气雷达速度图像在近海台风移动路径预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(6):665-671.
[17]沈新勇,毕明玉,张玲,等.中尺度对流系统对台风“风神”移动路径影响的研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(6):1173-1187.
[18]陆桂荣,王文,于怀征,等.台风“达维”对山东日照“08.03”暴雨天气过程的影响分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2): 255-261.
[19]牛金龙,吕学东,黄楚惠.一例台风诱发副高西北侧连续性暴雨过程的动力学机制分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):61-66.
[20]朱明,夏金.“苏拉”台风倒槽引发鄂西北特大暴雨的诊断分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(1):74-79.
[21]沈晓玲,孙琦旻.“菲特”台风暴雨成因分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):33-39.
[22]陈联寿,许映龙.中国台风特大暴雨综述[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):3-10.
[23]曹楚,王忠东,刘峰,等.2013年“菲特”台风暴雨成因及湿位涡诊断分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(4):86-92.
[24]陈见,赖珍权,罗小莉,等.“尤特”超强台风残留低涡引发的广西特大暴雨成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):19-25.
[25]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:525-527.
[26]张玉玲.中尺度大气动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:11-13.
[27]林宗桂,林开平,李耀先,等.一个高空槽前中尺度对流系统发生发展过程和机制研究[J].气象学报,2011,69(5):770-781.
[28]广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所.卫星与自动站资料分析处理系统2.0:中国,2014SR207872[P].2014-12-24.