中国天然气消费重心迁移路径与驱动因素分解
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摘要
探求天然气消费重心迁移路径,把握区域贡献度以及天然气消费增长的驱动因素,对推动中国区域天然气协调发展,促进天然气消费具有重要意义。本文以2005—2016年各省区市的天然气消费数据为基础,运用重心模型测算中国天然气消费重心,并分析重心迁移特征;基于Shapley值分解的基本模型,推演出区域对天然气消费重心迁移的贡献度模型和天然气消费增量分解模型,对中国七大区域进行实际分析。结果表明:2005—2011年、2011—2016年中国天然气消费重心分别向东南、东北方向迁移;第一阶段的主要推动力是华东、华南地区天然气消费比例增加显著,第二阶段则是华北、华东天然气消费比例增加;近期来看,基础设施效应和人均财富效应分别是各地区天然气消费增加的第一、第二位驱动因素,经济需求效应对不同地区呈现不同的拉动或抑制作用。
It is of great significance to research and grasp regional contributions and the incremental drivers to promote the coordinated development of regional natural gas energy and increase the proportion of natural gas consumption in China. Based on the gas consumption data of each province from 2005 to 2016, the gravity center model is used to measure the gravity center of China's natural gas consumption, and the characteristics of the migration of gravity centers is analyzed. Based on the basic model of Shapley value decomposition, the contribution model of the migration of natural gas consumption gravity centers and the incremental decomposition model of natural gas consumption are presented, and the actual analysis of seven regions in China is carried out. The results show that the gravity center of China's natural gas consumption in 2005～2011 and 2011～2016 are moving to the Southeast and Northeast respectively. The main driving force of the ?rst stage is the signi?cant increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in East China and South China, and that of the second stage is the increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in North China and East China. In the near future, the infrastructure effect and the per capita wealth effect are the ?rst and second drivers of the increase in natural gas consumption in each region, respectively. The economic demand effect has different pull or inhibition effects in different regions.
It is of great significance to research and grasp regional contributions and the incremental drivers to promote the coordinated development of regional natural gas energy and increase the proportion of natural gas consumption in China. Based on the gas consumption data of each province from 2005 to 2016, the gravity center model is used to measure the gravity center of China's natural gas consumption, and the characteristics of the migration of gravity centers is analyzed. Based on the basic model of Shapley value decomposition, the contribution model of the migration of natural gas consumption gravity centers and the incremental decomposition model of natural gas consumption are presented, and the actual analysis of seven regions in China is carried out. The results show that the gravity center of China's natural gas consumption in 2005～2011 and 2011～2016 are moving to the Southeast and Northeast respectively. The main driving force of the ?rst stage is the signi?cant increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in East China and South China, and that of the second stage is the increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in North China and East China. In the near future, the infrastructure effect and the per capita wealth effect are the ?rst and second drivers of the increase in natural gas consumption in each region, respectively. The economic demand effect has different pull or inhibition effects in different regions.
引文
[1]王桂新,徐丽.中国改革开放以来省际人口迁移重心演化考探[J].中国人口科学,2010,(3):23-34.
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[4]张纫兰,王少军,刘鹏飞.基于GIS重心模型的黄石市经济迁移分析[J].企业经济,2014,(2):169-174.
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[6]张兴榆,黄贤金,赵雲泰,等.近10年江苏省土地利用重心与经济重心迁移轨迹对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(1):14-20.
[7]付强,董锁成,杨红新,等.2000-2014年中国旅游人次的空间格局及重心迁移[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(6):9-17.
[8]郎一环,王礼茂.世界石油供应板块地缘格局及重心迁移的驱动力机制研究[J].中国能源,2009,31(8):7-13.
[9]方叶兵,王礼茂,杨艳,等.世界天然气重心移动与空间集聚特征研究[J].池州学院学报,2016,30(3):73-77.
[10]王宜强,赵媛.中国天然气资源流动类型、集散特征与格局演化[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):248-259.
[11]M. M. Fischer, A. Getis. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis:Software[M]. Berlin:Springer, 2010.
[12]Y. Zhang, J. Zhang, Z. Zhang, et al. Analysis of the distribution and evolution of energy supply and demand centers of gravity in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 49:695-706.
[13]张露,龚承柱,李兰兰,等.中国天然气供需重心迁移路径及贡献度分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(12):90-97.
[14]李兰兰,徐婷婷,李方一,等.中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及增长动因分解[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(4):606-619.
[15]A.F.Shorrocks.Decompositionproceduresfordistributional analysis:a uni?ed framework based on the Shapley value[J]. J Econ Inequal, 2013, 11:99–126.
[16]Albrecht J, Francois D, Schoors K. A Shapley decomposition of carbon emissions without residuals[J]. Energy Policy, 2002, 30:727-736.
[17]宋杰鲲,窦吉芳.能源消费碳排放零残差因素分解模型研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013,37(1):183-189.
[2]张婷,段汉明,张芳.北疆城镇区域人口重心迁移研究[J].西北人口,2013,34(6):60-63.
[3]叶明确.1978—2008年中国经济重心迁移的特征与影响因素[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):12-18.
[4]张纫兰,王少军,刘鹏飞.基于GIS重心模型的黄石市经济迁移分析[J].企业经济,2014,(2):169-174.
[5]沙勇.山东省人口、经济与产业重心迁移对比研究:2000-2012[J].华东经济管理,2014,28(7):76-80.
[6]张兴榆,黄贤金,赵雲泰,等.近10年江苏省土地利用重心与经济重心迁移轨迹对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(1):14-20.
[7]付强,董锁成,杨红新,等.2000-2014年中国旅游人次的空间格局及重心迁移[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(6):9-17.
[8]郎一环,王礼茂.世界石油供应板块地缘格局及重心迁移的驱动力机制研究[J].中国能源,2009,31(8):7-13.
[9]方叶兵,王礼茂,杨艳,等.世界天然气重心移动与空间集聚特征研究[J].池州学院学报,2016,30(3):73-77.
[10]王宜强,赵媛.中国天然气资源流动类型、集散特征与格局演化[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):248-259.
[11]M. M. Fischer, A. Getis. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis:Software[M]. Berlin:Springer, 2010.
[12]Y. Zhang, J. Zhang, Z. Zhang, et al. Analysis of the distribution and evolution of energy supply and demand centers of gravity in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 49:695-706.
[13]张露,龚承柱,李兰兰,等.中国天然气供需重心迁移路径及贡献度分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(12):90-97.
[14]李兰兰,徐婷婷,李方一,等.中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及增长动因分解[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(4):606-619.
[15]A.F.Shorrocks.Decompositionproceduresfordistributional analysis:a uni?ed framework based on the Shapley value[J]. J Econ Inequal, 2013, 11:99–126.
[16]Albrecht J, Francois D, Schoors K. A Shapley decomposition of carbon emissions without residuals[J]. Energy Policy, 2002, 30:727-736.
[17]宋杰鲲,窦吉芳.能源消费碳排放零残差因素分解模型研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013,37(1):183-189.