基于Ye模型的文献老化的实证研究
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摘要
从文献的载文量或主题词的被引频次可以获得一个学术领域兴起与发展的详细信息。本文首次尝试将Ye模型引入主题词被引频次以及相对应的发文量增长规律的研究中,探索主题词被引频次以及相对应的载文量对时间的响应关系。利用Web of Science数据库检索期刊Physical Review D (IF=4.56)之1985—1990年、1991—1996年、2000—2005年和2006—2011年4个时段的载文量和被引频次以及主题词"石墨烯(graphene)"在2005年、2008年和2010年3个时段的载文量和被引频次,并用Ye模型分段拟合这些数据。结果表明,Ye模型可以很好地拟合该期刊4个时段文献的被引频次对时间的响应曲线,得到的引文峰值和最大引文年限与观测值高度符合。此外还发现随着该期刊发文量和文献被引频次的增加,最大引文年限越来越小;负指数模型不能很好地拟合该期刊1985—1990年和1991—1996年2个时段文献被引频次随时间增加而下降这段响应曲线,但可以较好地拟合2000—2005年和2006—2011年2个时段文献被引频次对时间的响应曲线。用逻辑斯蒂模型拟合该期刊4个时段文献被引频次对时间响应曲线的上升部分时发现,由该模型得到的引文峰值低于观测值。同时Ye模型还可以非常好地拟合主题词"石墨烯(graphene)"在2005年、2008年和2010年3个时段的被引频次对时间的响应曲线,并且发现最大引文年限越来越小这种变化趋势,而由逻辑斯蒂模型拟合得到的响应曲线与观测值之间存在较大的差异。
Detailed information from the literature, subject citation frequency, and the quantity of articles can be used to evaluate the development of an academic field. In this paper, in order to investigate the increment rule of subject citation frequency and the corresponding quantity of articles, a study on the time-response of the subject citation frequency and quantity of articles was conducted using the Ye model. The number of articles and the citation frequency of Physical Review D(IF=4.56) in 1985-1990, 1991-1996, 2000-2005 and 2006-2011, as well as the frequency of the subject "graphene" in 2005, 2008 and 2010 were retrieved from the Web of Science database. These data were fitted by the Ye, negative exponential, and logistic models, respectively. The results showed that the Ye model could simulate an acceptable timeresponse of the literature citation frequency. Simultaneously, the literature citation peak and maximum citation years were very close to the observed value with extreme determination coefficients. These results also revealed that the maximum citation period is continuously decreasing with the article quantity and citation frequency of the journal. However, although the negative exponential model was not able to adequately fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency in 1985-1990 and 1991-1996, it could fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency in 2000-2005 and2006-2011 well. In addition, by using the logistic model to simulate the uplift of the time-response curve in the four selected time periods, the peak value of the citation is obtained by the model, and it is lower than the observed values. Additionally, the Ye model could fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency on the subject "graphene" in 2005,2008 and 2010 well. It also found that the maximum citation period continually decreased. However, there is a great difference between the time-response curves and the observed value as the response curves were fitted by the logistic model.
Detailed information from the literature, subject citation frequency, and the quantity of articles can be used to evaluate the development of an academic field. In this paper, in order to investigate the increment rule of subject citation frequency and the corresponding quantity of articles, a study on the time-response of the subject citation frequency and quantity of articles was conducted using the Ye model. The number of articles and the citation frequency of Physical Review D(IF=4.56) in 1985-1990, 1991-1996, 2000-2005 and 2006-2011, as well as the frequency of the subject "graphene" in 2005, 2008 and 2010 were retrieved from the Web of Science database. These data were fitted by the Ye, negative exponential, and logistic models, respectively. The results showed that the Ye model could simulate an acceptable timeresponse of the literature citation frequency. Simultaneously, the literature citation peak and maximum citation years were very close to the observed value with extreme determination coefficients. These results also revealed that the maximum citation period is continuously decreasing with the article quantity and citation frequency of the journal. However, although the negative exponential model was not able to adequately fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency in 1985-1990 and 1991-1996, it could fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency in 2000-2005 and2006-2011 well. In addition, by using the logistic model to simulate the uplift of the time-response curve in the four selected time periods, the peak value of the citation is obtained by the model, and it is lower than the observed values. Additionally, the Ye model could fit the time-response curves of the literature citation frequency on the subject "graphene" in 2005,2008 and 2010 well. It also found that the maximum citation period continually decreased. However, there is a great difference between the time-response curves and the observed value as the response curves were fitted by the logistic model.
引文
[1]索传军.知识转移视角下的学术论文老化与创新研究[J].图书情报工作,2014,58(5):5-12.
[2]游毅,索传军,钟晶晶.科技期刊长期老化趋势与影响因素实证研究--基于4门学科期刊30年引文数据的统计分析[J].图书情报工作,2011,55(12):140-144.
[3]Line M B.Changes in the use of literature with time:Obsolescence revisited[J].Library Trends,1993,41(4):665-683.
[4]周爱民.文献老化对数正态分布模型[J].情报杂志,2012,31(9):59-62,72.
[5]Gosnell C F.Obsolescence of books in college libraries[J].College&Research Libraries,1944,5(2):115-125.
[6]Burton R E,Kebler R W.The half-life of some scientific and technical literatures[J].American Documentation,1960,11(1):18-22.
[7]de Solla Price D.Citation measure of hard science,soft science,technology,and nonscience[M]//Communication among Scientists and Engineers.Heath Lexington Books,1970:3-22.
[8]Brookes B C.The growth,utility and obsolescence of scientific periodical literature[J].Journal of Documentation,1970,26(4):283-294.
[9]丁学东,王雪山.关于Burton-Kebler文献老化经验公式及Мотылев修正式[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),1992(4):105-111.
[10]Avramescu A.Actuality and obsolescence of scientific literature[J].Journal of the American Society for Information Science,1979,30(5):296-303.
[11]Egghe L,Rousseau R.Aging,obsolescence,impact,growth and utilization:Definitions and relations[J].Journal of the American Society for Information Science,2000,51(11):1004-1017.
[12]丁学东.文献计量学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1993:88-93.
[13]靖培栋,康仲远.关于科技文献增长的数学模型[J].情报学报,2000,19(1):90-96.
[14]危志明.文献老化新模型探讨[J].情报理论与实践,2009,32(2):43-45.
[15]林辉,林伟.科学文献的增长规律和老化规律及其新的一般模型[J].情报杂志,2010,29(4):22-25.
[16]Vieira E S,Gomes J A N F.Citations to scientific article:Its distribution and dependence on the article features[J].Journal of Informatrics,2010,4(1):1-13.
[17]陈立新,刘则渊.引文半衰期与普赖斯指数之间的数量关系研究[J].图书情报知识,2007,115(1):25-28.
[18]俞立平,王艳.学术期刊被引频次的时间分布规律研究--以图书馆、情报、文献学期刊为例[J].情报科学,2016,34(5):159-162.
[19]姜春林,刘则渊.历时态角度看人文社会科学引文峰值及其引文评价的时间选择[J].情报科学,2006,24(9):1343-1347.
[20]潘黎,邱淞.21世纪以来国际学界学生学习研究的热点、趋势和走向--基于WOS检索平台2000-2014年“学生学习”主题词文献共被引网络图谱的分析[J].教育研究,2015(7):126-135.
[21]陆阳琪.我国环境科学学科半衰期分析[J].图书与情报,2015(2):99-102.
[22]邱均平,宋艳辉,杨思洛.国内人文社会科学文献老化规律对比研究[J].中国图书馆学报,2011,37(9):26-35.
[23]Odlyzko A.The rapid evolution of scholarly communication[J].Learned Publishing,2002,15(1):7-19.
[24]Ye Z P.A new model for relationship between irradiance and the rate of photosynthesis in Oryza sativa[J].Photosynthetica,2007,45(4):637-640.
[25]De Lobo F,de Barros M P,Dalmagro H J,et al.Fitting net photosynthetic light-response curves with Microsoft Excel-a critical look at the models[J].Photosynthetica,2014,51(3):445-456.
[26]焦裕媚,韦小丽.两种光响应及CO2响应模型在喀斯特树种中的应用[J].贵州农业科学,2010,38(4):162-167.
[27]滕振宁,方宝华,刘洋,等.镉对不同品种水稻光合作用的影响[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):538-544.
[28]朱弘,温国胜.3种模型对毛竹快速生长期冠层叶片叶绿素荧光-快速光响应曲线(RLCS)拟合的比较[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2017,46(6):559-664.
[29]李力,张祥星,郑睿,等.夏玉米光合特性及光响应曲线拟合[J].植物生态学报,2016,40(12):1310-1318.
[30]任博,李俊,同小娟,等.太行山南麓栓皮栎和刺槐叶片光合光响应模拟[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(8):2206-2216.
[31]张曼义,杨再强,侯梦媛.水分胁迫下黄瓜叶片光响应过程的模拟[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(10):644-654.
[32]洪伟,杨细明,林勇明,等.不同光合光响应模型在雷公藤研究中的应用[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2012,41(1):29-33.
[33]段萌,杨伟才,毛晓敏.覆膜条件下水分亏缺对春小麦光合特性影响及光响应模型比较研究[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(12):1-12.
[34]熊雪,刘济明,王军才,等.磷素供给对米槁幼苗光合作用-CO2响应的影响[J].南方农业学报,2017,48(11):1983-1988.
[35]叶子飘.光响应模型在超级杂交稻组合-Ⅱ优明86中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(8):1323-1326.
[36]叶子飘,于强.光合作用光响应模型的比较[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(6):1356-1361.
[37]何荣利.关于科学文献增长模型的思考[J].情报杂志,1994,13(6):40-41,64.
[38]兰月新.基于动态logistic模型的文献增长规律研究[J].情报科学,2014,32(3):86-89,97.
[39]李久平,姚乐野.知识管理文献增长模型研究[J].图书馆理论与实践,2012,34(5):36-39.
[40]王泽蘅,邱长波.基于logistic回归的影响国际合作论文主导地位的因素分析--以中日比较研究为视角[J].情报杂志,2017,36(4):177-182.
(1)http://apps.webofknowledge.com/CitationReport.do?product=UA&search_mode=CitationReport&SID=7FbyYwsrGd5rLOvQiSP&page=1&cr_pqid=6&viewType=summary
[2]游毅,索传军,钟晶晶.科技期刊长期老化趋势与影响因素实证研究--基于4门学科期刊30年引文数据的统计分析[J].图书情报工作,2011,55(12):140-144.
[3]Line M B.Changes in the use of literature with time:Obsolescence revisited[J].Library Trends,1993,41(4):665-683.
[4]周爱民.文献老化对数正态分布模型[J].情报杂志,2012,31(9):59-62,72.
[5]Gosnell C F.Obsolescence of books in college libraries[J].College&Research Libraries,1944,5(2):115-125.
[6]Burton R E,Kebler R W.The half-life of some scientific and technical literatures[J].American Documentation,1960,11(1):18-22.
[7]de Solla Price D.Citation measure of hard science,soft science,technology,and nonscience[M]//Communication among Scientists and Engineers.Heath Lexington Books,1970:3-22.
[8]Brookes B C.The growth,utility and obsolescence of scientific periodical literature[J].Journal of Documentation,1970,26(4):283-294.
[9]丁学东,王雪山.关于Burton-Kebler文献老化经验公式及Мотылев修正式[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),1992(4):105-111.
[10]Avramescu A.Actuality and obsolescence of scientific literature[J].Journal of the American Society for Information Science,1979,30(5):296-303.
[11]Egghe L,Rousseau R.Aging,obsolescence,impact,growth and utilization:Definitions and relations[J].Journal of the American Society for Information Science,2000,51(11):1004-1017.
[12]丁学东.文献计量学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1993:88-93.
[13]靖培栋,康仲远.关于科技文献增长的数学模型[J].情报学报,2000,19(1):90-96.
[14]危志明.文献老化新模型探讨[J].情报理论与实践,2009,32(2):43-45.
[15]林辉,林伟.科学文献的增长规律和老化规律及其新的一般模型[J].情报杂志,2010,29(4):22-25.
[16]Vieira E S,Gomes J A N F.Citations to scientific article:Its distribution and dependence on the article features[J].Journal of Informatrics,2010,4(1):1-13.
[17]陈立新,刘则渊.引文半衰期与普赖斯指数之间的数量关系研究[J].图书情报知识,2007,115(1):25-28.
[18]俞立平,王艳.学术期刊被引频次的时间分布规律研究--以图书馆、情报、文献学期刊为例[J].情报科学,2016,34(5):159-162.
[19]姜春林,刘则渊.历时态角度看人文社会科学引文峰值及其引文评价的时间选择[J].情报科学,2006,24(9):1343-1347.
[20]潘黎,邱淞.21世纪以来国际学界学生学习研究的热点、趋势和走向--基于WOS检索平台2000-2014年“学生学习”主题词文献共被引网络图谱的分析[J].教育研究,2015(7):126-135.
[21]陆阳琪.我国环境科学学科半衰期分析[J].图书与情报,2015(2):99-102.
[22]邱均平,宋艳辉,杨思洛.国内人文社会科学文献老化规律对比研究[J].中国图书馆学报,2011,37(9):26-35.
[23]Odlyzko A.The rapid evolution of scholarly communication[J].Learned Publishing,2002,15(1):7-19.
[24]Ye Z P.A new model for relationship between irradiance and the rate of photosynthesis in Oryza sativa[J].Photosynthetica,2007,45(4):637-640.
[25]De Lobo F,de Barros M P,Dalmagro H J,et al.Fitting net photosynthetic light-response curves with Microsoft Excel-a critical look at the models[J].Photosynthetica,2014,51(3):445-456.
[26]焦裕媚,韦小丽.两种光响应及CO2响应模型在喀斯特树种中的应用[J].贵州农业科学,2010,38(4):162-167.
[27]滕振宁,方宝华,刘洋,等.镉对不同品种水稻光合作用的影响[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):538-544.
[28]朱弘,温国胜.3种模型对毛竹快速生长期冠层叶片叶绿素荧光-快速光响应曲线(RLCS)拟合的比较[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2017,46(6):559-664.
[29]李力,张祥星,郑睿,等.夏玉米光合特性及光响应曲线拟合[J].植物生态学报,2016,40(12):1310-1318.
[30]任博,李俊,同小娟,等.太行山南麓栓皮栎和刺槐叶片光合光响应模拟[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(8):2206-2216.
[31]张曼义,杨再强,侯梦媛.水分胁迫下黄瓜叶片光响应过程的模拟[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(10):644-654.
[32]洪伟,杨细明,林勇明,等.不同光合光响应模型在雷公藤研究中的应用[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2012,41(1):29-33.
[33]段萌,杨伟才,毛晓敏.覆膜条件下水分亏缺对春小麦光合特性影响及光响应模型比较研究[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(12):1-12.
[34]熊雪,刘济明,王军才,等.磷素供给对米槁幼苗光合作用-CO2响应的影响[J].南方农业学报,2017,48(11):1983-1988.
[35]叶子飘.光响应模型在超级杂交稻组合-Ⅱ优明86中的应用[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(8):1323-1326.
[36]叶子飘,于强.光合作用光响应模型的比较[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(6):1356-1361.
[37]何荣利.关于科学文献增长模型的思考[J].情报杂志,1994,13(6):40-41,64.
[38]兰月新.基于动态logistic模型的文献增长规律研究[J].情报科学,2014,32(3):86-89,97.
[39]李久平,姚乐野.知识管理文献增长模型研究[J].图书馆理论与实践,2012,34(5):36-39.
[40]王泽蘅,邱长波.基于logistic回归的影响国际合作论文主导地位的因素分析--以中日比较研究为视角[J].情报杂志,2017,36(4):177-182.
(1)http://apps.webofknowledge.com/CitationReport.do?product=UA&search_mode=CitationReport&SID=7FbyYwsrGd5rLOvQiSP&page=1&cr_pqid=6&viewType=summary