跨区域重大工程项目风险耦合机理研究
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摘要
从系统的视角出发,运用系统动力学原理和方法,研究跨区域重大工程项目系统脆弱性风险和威胁性风险,对跨区域重大工程项目复杂系统内外风险之间的相互作用关系进行深入剖析,揭示其风险系统耦合规律,在此基础上,提出跨区域重大工程项目风险耦合系统的解耦控制方法。结果表明:项目所处政治和社会环境及其与系统自身脆弱性的相互作用,是跨区域重大工程项目风险事件发生的最重要原因。
From the perspective of system,this paper uses the theory and method of system dynamics to analyze risks of system threat and vulnerability and clarifies the interaction relationship between the internal and external risks of cross-regional mega construction projects,thus investigates the risk coupling law of cross-regional mega construction projects. Then,proposes three decoupling methods based on the analysis of the coupling process. Results indicate that the projects' political and social environment and its interaction with the vulnerability of the system itself are the most important reasons of the risk events with the cross-regional feature of system itself.
From the perspective of system,this paper uses the theory and method of system dynamics to analyze risks of system threat and vulnerability and clarifies the interaction relationship between the internal and external risks of cross-regional mega construction projects,thus investigates the risk coupling law of cross-regional mega construction projects. Then,proposes three decoupling methods based on the analysis of the coupling process. Results indicate that the projects' political and social environment and its interaction with the vulnerability of the system itself are the most important reasons of the risk events with the cross-regional feature of system itself.
引文
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[2]洪开荣.特大型工程项目的期权博弈评价体系[J].社会科学辑刊,2006(3):96-99.
[3]Haimes Y Y.On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures[J].Risk Analysis,2006(2):293.
[4]陶鹏,童星.灾害社会科学:基于脆弱性视角的整合范式[J].南京社会科学,2011(11):51-57.
[5]黄德春,张长征,Upmanu Lall,等.重大水利工程社会稳定风险研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013(4):89-95.
[6]叶林,赵琦.城市间合作的困境与出路——基于广佛都市圈“断头路”的启示[J].中国行政管理,2015(9):26-31.
[7]沈俊,邓明然.企业集团风险传导机理分析——以中国巨人集团为例[J].财会通讯,2009(32):148-149.