西南和华南干旱灾害链特征分析
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摘要
利用历史资料记录,考虑西南(云贵川渝)和华南(粤桂)各自不同的孕灾环境(包括气候背景、下垫面状况、地貌类型、土壤类型、河网分布)、人口密度、经济条件等,分别构建了西南和华南地区的干旱灾害链模式,分析各自灾害链链条上的灾害传递特点。结果表明,尽管西南和华南干旱灾害链的链条结构有相似的地方,但各自链条上灾害的传递过程不同。干旱灾害链上灾害传递具有明显的区域性特征,西南在轻度气象干旱时就会引起作物干旱,而华南则要在中度气象干旱时才会下传到作物干旱;西南在中度气象干旱就会引起诸如人畜饮水困难和牲畜饲草料不足等问题,而华南则要在重度气象干旱时才会引起相应的问题;由于孕灾环境的差异,西南在重度气象干旱时可引起部分区域的石漠化现象,而华南则除了桂北外,其他大部分地区出现石漠化的概率小。在同一区域,对不同承灾体而言,干旱等级的下传阈值不同,如干旱达中旱等级就可下传影响航运,达到重旱等级时可下传引发森林火灾和病虫害,而达到特旱等级时才可下传导致土壤退化。
Considering the different disaster- pregnant environment,population density and economic condition,the drought disaster chain models in southwest and south China were constructed respectively by using history data and record of references. Here,the disaster- pregnant environment includes climate background,underlying surface,landforms,soil and river network. And on this basis that the transmission characteristics of disaster on separate disaster chains were analyzed. The results show that the drought disaster chain structure is similar in southwest and south China,but their transfer process of disaster on the two chain is different. There are obvious regional characteristics of disaster transfer on their chain. The incipient drought can cause crop drought in southwest China,while moderate drought can cause crop drought in south China. In southwest China,the moderate drought can lead to some problems such as people and livestock drinking water difficult and livestock forage shortage,but these corresponding problems can be generated by the severe drought in south China. Being the difference in disaster- pregnant environment,the rock desertification phenomenon appears in southwest China under the severe drought condition,but the probability of rock desertification is small in south China except for north Guangxi. In the same region,as far as the various disaster- affected bodies are concerned,the threshold of drought degree transmitting is different. For example,shipping problems usually result from the moderate drought,and forest fire and pest disaster are often led by the severe drought,while soil degradations appear in the extreme drought.
Considering the different disaster- pregnant environment,population density and economic condition,the drought disaster chain models in southwest and south China were constructed respectively by using history data and record of references. Here,the disaster- pregnant environment includes climate background,underlying surface,landforms,soil and river network. And on this basis that the transmission characteristics of disaster on separate disaster chains were analyzed. The results show that the drought disaster chain structure is similar in southwest and south China,but their transfer process of disaster on the two chain is different. There are obvious regional characteristics of disaster transfer on their chain. The incipient drought can cause crop drought in southwest China,while moderate drought can cause crop drought in south China. In southwest China,the moderate drought can lead to some problems such as people and livestock drinking water difficult and livestock forage shortage,but these corresponding problems can be generated by the severe drought in south China. Being the difference in disaster- pregnant environment,the rock desertification phenomenon appears in southwest China under the severe drought condition,but the probability of rock desertification is small in south China except for north Guangxi. In the same region,as far as the various disaster- affected bodies are concerned,the threshold of drought degree transmitting is different. For example,shipping problems usually result from the moderate drought,and forest fire and pest disaster are often led by the severe drought,while soil degradations appear in the extreme drought.
引文
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[15]琚建华,吕俊梅,谢国清,等.MJO和AO持续异常对云南干旱的影响研究[J].干旱气象,2011,29(4):401-406.
[16]尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):182-193.
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[18]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[19]黄锡荃,苏法崇,梅安新.中国的河流——中国自然地理知识丛书[M].北京:商务出版社,1995.1-88.
[20]程建刚,晏红明,严华生,等.云南重大气候灾害特征和成因分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[21]徐玲玲,侯英雨,韩丽娟,等.2009/2010年度冬季气候对农业生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):324-326.
[22]刘孝富,潘英姿,曹晓红,等.旱灾对石漠化影响评估及灾后石漠化防治分区[J].环境科学研究,2012,25(8):882-889.
[23]http://baike.sogou.com/v45381.htm
[2]王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[3]张强,陈丽华,王润元,等.气候变化与西北地区粮食和食品安全[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):509-513.
[4]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991,11:37-42.
[5]文传甲.论大气灾害链[J].灾害学,1994,9(3):1-6.
[6]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.
[7]Xu L F,Xiang W M,Xue G X.Natural hazard chain research in China:A review[J].Nat Hazards,2014,70:1631-1659.DOI 10.1007/s11069-013-0881-x
[8]朱伟,陈长坤,纪道溪,等.我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):88-91.
[9]吴立,王传辉,王心源,等.巢湖流域灾害链成因机制与减灾对策[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):86-91.
[10]吴瑾冰.滇、桂、粤、闽、台灾害链讨论[J].灾害学,2002,17(2):82-87.
[11]陈香,陈静,王静爱.福建台风灾害链分析——以2005年“龙王”台风为例[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):203-208.
[12]帅嘉冰,徐伟,史培军.长三角地区台风灾害链特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):36-42.
[13]文传甲.西南地区的大气灾害及其时空变化规律[J].灾害学,1995,10(3):37-43.
[14]肖名忠,张强,陈晓宏.珠江流域干旱事件的多变量区域分析及区域分布特征[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):12-18.
[15]琚建华,吕俊梅,谢国清,等.MJO和AO持续异常对云南干旱的影响研究[J].干旱气象,2011,29(4):401-406.
[16]尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):182-193.
[17]科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.灾害·社会·减灾·发展——中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.
[18]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[19]黄锡荃,苏法崇,梅安新.中国的河流——中国自然地理知识丛书[M].北京:商务出版社,1995.1-88.
[20]程建刚,晏红明,严华生,等.云南重大气候灾害特征和成因分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[21]徐玲玲,侯英雨,韩丽娟,等.2009/2010年度冬季气候对农业生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):324-326.
[22]刘孝富,潘英姿,曹晓红,等.旱灾对石漠化影响评估及灾后石漠化防治分区[J].环境科学研究,2012,25(8):882-889.
[23]http://baike.sogou.com/v45381.htm