乡村人口长寿还是城市人口长寿?
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摘要
第五次、第六次全国人口普查数据表明,我国乡村和镇90岁以上人口、百岁以上人口占总人口的比重和占老年人口的比重高于城市,从而引发了相关学科关于乡村人口长寿原因的讨论。首先讨论了中低龄人口死亡率与高龄人口死亡率的关系。中低龄人口死亡率低的地区,高龄人口死亡率会升高,从而说明城市高龄人口死亡率高于镇并不表明城市人口长寿水平低。人口迁移和分年龄人口死亡数的城乡差异,是导致当前城市人口长寿率低于镇和乡村的主要原因。根据第六次全国人口普查数据显示的城乡死亡率差异,推导了未来城乡长寿人口占比的变化趋势。通过理论和实例分析发现,实际上城市人口比镇和乡村人口更长寿。
Data from the fifth and sixth national population census show that the proportion of centenarians and people over 90 years old both in the total population and in the elderly population in villages and towns is higher than that of cities, which has led to discussions on the reasons for longevity of people living in rural areas. This paper discussed the relationship between mortality rates of younger and older people, and found that areas boasting a lower mortality rate of younger people have a higher mortality rate of older people, which illustrates that higher mortality rate of the elderly population in cities does not indicate that city dwellers are to live shorter lives than rural ones. In contrast, the paper finds that migration and differences of deaths by age in urban and rural areas are the main causes of a shorter life expectancy in cities. Then on the basis of the mortality gap shown by the sixth census, the paper estimated possible changes of the ratio of long-lived people in the two areas. Theoretical analyses and case studies show that city dwellers actually live longer than their rural counterparts.
Data from the fifth and sixth national population census show that the proportion of centenarians and people over 90 years old both in the total population and in the elderly population in villages and towns is higher than that of cities, which has led to discussions on the reasons for longevity of people living in rural areas. This paper discussed the relationship between mortality rates of younger and older people, and found that areas boasting a lower mortality rate of younger people have a higher mortality rate of older people, which illustrates that higher mortality rate of the elderly population in cities does not indicate that city dwellers are to live shorter lives than rural ones. In contrast, the paper finds that migration and differences of deaths by age in urban and rural areas are the main causes of a shorter life expectancy in cities. Then on the basis of the mortality gap shown by the sixth census, the paper estimated possible changes of the ratio of long-lived people in the two areas. Theoretical analyses and case studies show that city dwellers actually live longer than their rural counterparts.
引文
萧振禹,何新华,李永华,等.关于构建科学合理的区域人口长寿评价指标体系的尝试[J]:科学决策,2015(5):1-14.
Lv J M, Wang W Y,Li Y H. Effects of environmental factors on the longevous people in China[J]. Archives of Gerontology arid Geriatrics, 2011, 53(2):200-205.
Magnolfi S U, Petruzzi E, Pinzani P, et al. Longevity index(LI%)and centenarity index(CI%):new indicators to evaluate the characteristics of aging process in the Italian population[J]. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 2007, 44(3):271-276.
(1)死亡率越低则排名越高。
Lv J M, Wang W Y,Li Y H. Effects of environmental factors on the longevous people in China[J]. Archives of Gerontology arid Geriatrics, 2011, 53(2):200-205.
Magnolfi S U, Petruzzi E, Pinzani P, et al. Longevity index(LI%)and centenarity index(CI%):new indicators to evaluate the characteristics of aging process in the Italian population[J]. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 2007, 44(3):271-276.
(1)死亡率越低则排名越高。