我国可再生能源投资的就业效应研究:整体和行业视角
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摘要
基于2005—2016年我国141家可再生能源上市企业的面板数据,构建固定效应变截距模型、随机效应变截距模型,测算了可再生能源投资对全国就业量、可再生能源行业及传统能源行业就业量的直接影响以及通过经济增长、产业结构与技术进步路径对就业量产生的中介作用,探究了太阳能、地热能、生物质能、水能、风能等不同行业投资行为对可再生能源行业就业量的贡献大小,并进一步利用断点回归模型兼顾分析了可再生能源政策的作用效果。结果表明:第一,可再生能源投资增加能促进全国就业量与可再生能源行业就业量,但对传统能源行业就业量具有抑制作用。第二,可再生能源投资通过技术进步和产业结构路径对全国就业量分别产生了系数为0.011、0.020的促进作用,但却通过经济增长路径对全国就业量产生了系数为0.032的抑制作用;此外,可再生能源投资通过产业结构、经济增长路径促进了可再生能源行业与传统能源行业就业量,但通过技术进步路径抑制了该两大行业就业量。第三,样本期间内可再生能源发展基金征收使用管理政策在一定程度上放大了可再生能源投资对可再生能源行业就业量的促进作用,凸显了政策的有效性。
Based on panel data for 141 renewable energy listed companies in China from 2005 to 2016, the study constructs the variable intercept models with fixed and random effects to measure how renewable energy investment affects national employment, renewable energy and traditional energy industry employment, and how renewable energy investment influences employment through amount, structure and technology paths, explores the contribution of investment behaviors in different industries such as solar energy, geothermal energy, biomass energy, hydro energy and wind energy to renewable energy industry employment, and further uses regression discontinuity model to estimate the effect of renewable energy policy. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, renewable energy investment can promote national employment and renewable energy industry employment, but inhibit traditional energy industry employment.Secondly, renewable energy investment promotes national employment through technology and structure paths by coefficients of 0.011 and 0.020 respectively, but inhibits national employment through amount path by a coefficient of-0.032; in addition, renewable energy investment promotes renewable energy and traditional energy industry employment through the industrial structure and economic growth paths, but inhibits the two major industries' employment through technology path. Thirdly, during the sample period, to a certain extent, the policies concerning levying, using, and managing the Renewable Energy Development Fund have amplified the contribution of renewable energy investment to renewable energy industry employment, reflecting the effectiveness of renewable energy policy implementation in China.
Based on panel data for 141 renewable energy listed companies in China from 2005 to 2016, the study constructs the variable intercept models with fixed and random effects to measure how renewable energy investment affects national employment, renewable energy and traditional energy industry employment, and how renewable energy investment influences employment through amount, structure and technology paths, explores the contribution of investment behaviors in different industries such as solar energy, geothermal energy, biomass energy, hydro energy and wind energy to renewable energy industry employment, and further uses regression discontinuity model to estimate the effect of renewable energy policy. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, renewable energy investment can promote national employment and renewable energy industry employment, but inhibit traditional energy industry employment.Secondly, renewable energy investment promotes national employment through technology and structure paths by coefficients of 0.011 and 0.020 respectively, but inhibits national employment through amount path by a coefficient of-0.032; in addition, renewable energy investment promotes renewable energy and traditional energy industry employment through the industrial structure and economic growth paths, but inhibits the two major industries' employment through technology path. Thirdly, during the sample period, to a certain extent, the policies concerning levying, using, and managing the Renewable Energy Development Fund have amplified the contribution of renewable energy investment to renewable energy industry employment, reflecting the effectiveness of renewable energy policy implementation in China.
引文
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[3]黎贵才,卢荻.中国经济增长模式演进的就业效应[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2009(12):25-30.
[4]许建伟,郭其友.外商直接投资的经济增长、就业与工资的交互效应——基于省级面板数据的实证研究[J].经济学家,2016(6):15-23.
[5]吕荣杰,郝力晓.人工智能等技术对劳动力市场的影响效应研究[J].工业技术经济, 2018, 37(12):131-137.
[6]于超,葛和平.对外直接投资的母国就业效应研究[J].统计与决策, 2011(20):123-125.
[7]刘海云,廖庆梅.中国对外直接投资对国内制造业就业的贡献[J].世界经济研究, 2017(3):56-67+135.
[8]INGLESI-LOTZR.Theimpactofrenewableenergy consumptiontoeconomicgrowth:Apaneldataapplication[J].Energy Economics, 2016, 53:58-63.
[9]MARKANDYA A, ARTO I, GONZáLEZ-EGUINO M, ROMáN MV.Towardsagreenenergyeconomy?Trackingthe employment effects of low-carbon technologies in the European Union[J]. Applied energy, 2016, 179:1342-1350.
[10]宋林,谢伟,何红光.对外直接投资对我国就业影响的实证研究——基于门限面板模型的分析[J].当代经济科学,2017,39(5):95-106.
[11]陆烁玉.外商直接投资对我国就业效应分析[J].中国经贸导刊(理论版), 2018(2):14-15.
[12]刘聪,程睿.人力资本投资与高质量就业研究[J].商业经济,2018(1):78-79.
[13]龚玉泉,袁志刚.中国经济增长与就业增长的非一致性及其形成机理[J].经济学动态, 2002(10):35-39.
[14]张跃军,魏一鸣.化石能源市场对国际碳市场的动态影响实证研究[J].管理评论, 2010, 22(6):34-41.
[15]黄生权,赵金灿.环保投资能带动就业吗?——基于空间杜宾模型的分析[J].生态经济, 2018, 34(3):57-62.
[16]BAR?RF.Transitiontorenewableenergysystemswith hydrogen as an energy carrier[J]. Energy, 2009, 34(3):308-312.
[17]PULTOWICZA.Thepremisesofrenewableenergysources marketdevelopmentinPolandinthelightofsustainable development idea[J]. Social science electronic publishing, 2009,4(1):109-115.
[18]FRONKBM,NEALR,GARIMELLAS.Evolutionofthe transition to a world driven by renewable energy[J]. Journal of Energy Resources Technology, 2010, 132(2):147-153.
[19]MORIARTYP,HONNERYD.Thetransitiontorenewable energy:Makehasteslowly[J].EnvironmentalScience&Technology, 2011, 45(7):2527-2528.
[20]陈艳,朱雅丽.可再生能源产业发展路径:基于制度变迁的视角[J].资源科学, 2012, 34(1):50-57.
[21]王琦,李桂华,孙洋,等.可再生能源发展与就业潜力分析[J].可再生能源, 2007(3):102-105.
[22]林宝.可再生能源产业发展的就业效应[J].劳动经济研究,2014, 2(1):127-151.
[23]BULAVSKAYAT,REYNèSF.Jobcreationandeconomic impactofrenewableenergyinthenetherlands[J].Renewable Energy, 2018,119:528-538.
[24]WEI M, PATADIA S, KAMMEN D M. Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work:How many jobs can the clean energy industrygenerateintheUS?[J].EnergyPolicy,2010,38(2):919-931.
[25]李斌,詹凯云,胡志高.环境规制与就业真的能实现“双重红利”吗?——基于我国“两控区”政策的实证研究[J].产业经济研究, 2019(1):113-126.
[26]满向昱,朱曦济,陈健.能源投资统计指标体系研究[J].统计研究, 2013, 30(11):25-29.
[27]徐波,白婷.中国上市公司可再生能源投资的影响因素、领先优势与政策效应[J].中国软科学, 2009(S2):284-289.
[28]ZHANG D Y, CAO H, ZOU P. Exuberance in China's renewable energy investment:Rationality, capital structure and implications with firm level evidence[J]. Energy policy, 2015, 95:468-478.
[29]牛东武,牛东帅.教育投资对经济增长影响的实证研究分析[J].现代营销(创富信息版), 2018(12):128-129.
[30]赵洙英,陈建.外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响研究[J].中国物价, 2019(3):10-12.
[31]郑蕊,张宁静.异质性、环保投资与绿色技术进步——基于Meta-FrontierDEA的实证研究[J].生态经济,2018,34(2):77-83.
[32]薛俭,吉小琴,朱清叶.环境规制、FDI对我国区域经济增长的影响——基于“两控区”政策的实证分析[J].生态经济,2019, 35(3):140-145.
[33]于凤玲,周扬,陈建宏,等.中国能源消费与经济发展关系的实证研究[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 19(3):29-35.
[34]朱青,罗志红,花明.能源生产、能源消费与能源结构的灰色关联分析[J].企业经济, 2015(2):20-23.
[35]闫笑非,杜秀芳.中国能源消费与产业结构变化关系的实证研究[J].改革与战略, 2009, 25(2):128-131.
[36]赵领娣,郝亚如,李荣杰.技术溢出视角下新能源开发的就业效应分析——以中国海洋能为例[J].资源科学, 2013, 35(2):412-421.
[37]EBERSBERGERB,PYKAA.Innovationandsectoral employment:A trade-off between compensation mechanisms[J].Labour, 2010, 16(4):635-665.
[38]LRIO F D. Embodied technical progress and unemployment[J].Discussion papers(IRES-Institut de recherches economiques et sociales), 2001.
[39]方建国.技术创新、劳动力就业与产业模式选择:假说、框架和检验[J].技术经济, 2012, 31(8):33-42.
[40]邱成峰.创造性破坏——科技带来的失业[J].现代经济信息,2014(9):426.
[41]李长安,谢远涛.经济增长、要素价格对创业带动就业效应的影响研究[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2012(1):132-139.
[42]于晗.产业结构与就业结构演进趋势及预测[J].财经问题研究, 2015(6):26-31.
[43]温杰.中国产业结构升级的就业效应[D].武汉:华中科技大学, 2010.
[44]刘青海.城市人口密度、国内市场规模与就业增长[J].重庆社会科学, 2009(9):82-84.
[45]盛红升.我国就业影响因素的实证分析[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古财经大学, 2013.
[46]周启良,湛柏明. FDI对我国三大经济地带就业效应的实证分析[J].世界贸易组织动态与研究, 2009(3):25-33.
[47]郑海燕.对我国失业问题影响因素的研究[J].经济与管理,2003(10):12-13.
[48]温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰.有中介的调节变量和有调节的中介变量[J].心理学报, 2006, 38(3):448-452.
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