基于HGERT网络模型的退化型失效可靠性评估
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摘要
针对退化型失效的复杂装备系统,提出基于隐图解评审技术(hidden graphic evaluation and review technique,HGERT)网络模型来进行系统可靠性预计和评估的方法。图解评审法(graphic evaluation and review technique,GERT)网络中的节点代表装备失效过程中正常状态到失效状态的转移,通过传感器将反映系统隐性状态的性能特征参数进行量化输入,从而将GERT网络中的各个劣化状态节点进行展开。应用Viterbi算法对模型参数进行解码和学习,确定退化型失效系统状态转移概率。将装备运行中所处的工作应力、环境载荷等影响性能衰退的因素作为输入,将关键性能指标退化量作为输出,建立装备性能退化的一般控制模型并将其作为GERT网络活动传递的随机变量。借助于信号流图理论对参数进行解析,监测系统处于不同状态时的性能退化水平,为故障预测和装备健康管理提供支持。案例通过对铣床性能退化量的分析,证明所构模型的可行性和合理性。
A method based on hidden graphic evaluation and review technique(HGERT)for system reliability prediction and assessment is proposed for complex equipment with degradation failure.Nodes in GERT network represents state transmission from a normal state to a failure state in a failure process.The performance characteristic parameters of hidden states in the system are quantized and input through the sensors,so that each deteriorated state node in GERT network can be expanded.Viterbi algorithm is used to decode and study the model parameters,and then the state transition probability of degradation failure system is determined.Working stress,environment load and other factors which influence the performance of equipment operation are considered as input,performance degradation of critical indicators as output,ageneral control model reflecting equipment performance degradation can be established and then we use degradation as a random variable transmitted between nodes in GERT network.The parameters are analyzed by means of signal flow graph theory,the performance degradation level in different states can be monitored,which provides support for fault prognosis and health management.Feasibility and rationality of the model is proved by analyzing the performance degradation of a milling machine.
A method based on hidden graphic evaluation and review technique(HGERT)for system reliability prediction and assessment is proposed for complex equipment with degradation failure.Nodes in GERT network represents state transmission from a normal state to a failure state in a failure process.The performance characteristic parameters of hidden states in the system are quantized and input through the sensors,so that each deteriorated state node in GERT network can be expanded.Viterbi algorithm is used to decode and study the model parameters,and then the state transition probability of degradation failure system is determined.Working stress,environment load and other factors which influence the performance of equipment operation are considered as input,performance degradation of critical indicators as output,ageneral control model reflecting equipment performance degradation can be established and then we use degradation as a random variable transmitted between nodes in GERT network.The parameters are analyzed by means of signal flow graph theory,the performance degradation level in different states can be monitored,which provides support for fault prognosis and health management.Feasibility and rationality of the model is proved by analyzing the performance degradation of a milling machine.
引文
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[20]吴军,邵新宇,邓超.隐马尔可夫链模型在装备运行可靠性预测中的应用[J].中国机械工程,2010,21(19):2345-2349.WU J,SHAO X Y,DENG C.A HMC-based equipment operation reliability prediction with multiple observation sequences[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2010,21(19):2345-2349.
[21]陶良彦,刘思峰,方志耕,等.GERT网络的矩阵式表达及求解模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2017,39(6):1292-1297.TAO L Y,LIU S F,FANG Z G,et al.Matrix representation model and its solution of GERT network[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2017,39(6):1292-1297.
[2]OH H,CHOI S,KIM K,et al.An empirical model to describe performance degradation for warranty abuse detection in portable electronics[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2015,142(2):92-99.
[3]GERTSBAKH I B,KORDONSKIY K B.Models of failure[M].Berlin:Springer,1969.
[4]骆明珠,康锐,刘法旺,等.电子产品可靠性预计方法综述[J].电子科学技术,2014,1(2):246-256.LUO M Z,KANG R,LIU F W,et al.A review of reliability prediction methods for electronic products[J].Electronic Science&Technology,2014,1(2):246-256.
[5]曾声奎.可靠性设计与分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011.ZENG S K.Reliability design and analysis[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2011.
[6]肖柳青,周石鹏.随机模拟方法与应用[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2014.XIAO L Q,ZHOU S P.Stochastic simulations methods and its application[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2014.
[7]吴炳晖,袭建军,宫娜.基于蒙特卡罗法的结构可靠度预计[J].机械制造与自动化,2015,44(6):68-70.WU B H,XI J J,GONG N.Structural reliability prediction based on Monte Carlo method[J].Machine Building&Automation,2015,44(6):68-70.
[8]胡昌华,胡锦涛,张伟,等.支持向量机用于性能退化的可靠性评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,31(5):1246-1249.HU C H,HU J T,ZHANG W,et al.Reliability assessment ofperformance degradation using support vector machines[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2009,31(5):1246-1249.
[9]GALUSHKIN A I.Neural networks theory[M].Berlin:Springer,2007.
[10]SINGLETON R K,STRANGAS E G,AVIYENTE S.Extended Kalman filtering for remaining-useful-life estimation of bearings[J].IEEE Trans.on Industrial Electronics,2015,62(3):1781-1790.
[11]COPPOLA A.Reliability engineering of electronic equipment a historical perspective[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,1984,R-33(1):29-35.
[12]ZENG Z,KANG R,CHEN Y.Using PoF models to predict system reliability considering failure collaboration[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics,2016,29(5):1294-1301.
[13]冯允成.随机网络及其应用[M].北京:北京航空学院出版社,1987.FENG Y C.Stochastic network and its application[M].Beijing:Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Press,1987.
[14]TAO L,WU D,LIU S,et al.Schedule risk analysis for newproduct development:the GERT method extended by a characteristic function[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,167:464-473.
[15]WHITEHOUSE G E.GERT,a useful technique for analyzing reliability problems[J].Technometrics,1970,12(1):33-48.
[16]SHANKAR G,SAHANI V.GERT analysis of a two-unit cold standby system with repair[J].Microelectronics Reliability,1995,35(5):837-840.
[17]SHANKAR G,SAHANI V.GERT analysis of a two-unit warm standby system with repair[J].Microelectronics Reliability,1996,36(9):1275-1278.
[18]龚德恩.经济控制论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2009.GONG D E.Economic cybernetics[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2009.
[19]BUDIANA M F,SIDDIG M H M A.Flowgraph models and analysis for Markov jump processes[C]∥Proc.of the 7th European Business Research Conference,2016.
[20]吴军,邵新宇,邓超.隐马尔可夫链模型在装备运行可靠性预测中的应用[J].中国机械工程,2010,21(19):2345-2349.WU J,SHAO X Y,DENG C.A HMC-based equipment operation reliability prediction with multiple observation sequences[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2010,21(19):2345-2349.
[21]陶良彦,刘思峰,方志耕,等.GERT网络的矩阵式表达及求解模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2017,39(6):1292-1297.TAO L Y,LIU S F,FANG Z G,et al.Matrix representation model and its solution of GERT network[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2017,39(6):1292-1297.