“一带一路”(中国段)入境旅游空间结构演化研究——基于非均衡协调发展视角
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摘要
基于非均衡协调发展理论,选取2006—2015年"一带一路"入境旅游经济数据作为衡量"一带一路"(中国段)入境旅游空间结构演化的重要指标,运用入境旅游经济发展水平和产业地位、首位度指数、EG指数、Zipf指数、局部空间自相关分析等方法,从整体—局部(子区域)—个体(省域)的角度研究了"一带一路"(中国段)入境旅游空间差异性与协调性特征。结果表明:①"一带一路"非均衡状态与协调倾向并存,总体非均衡与局部协调并存;②区域入境旅游发展成熟度与区域空间结构合理性呈正相关,即入境旅游发展越成熟的区域,省域间入境旅游发展越协调;③高高型区域、高低波动型区域、低低型区域三大区域入境旅游空间集聚类型差异明显;④区域入境旅游发展成熟度与区域空间显著相关的省域数量呈负相关,即低低型区域空间显著相关的省域数量多于高低波动型区域和高高型区域。
Based on the theory of unbalanced and harmonious development,this paper selected inbound tourism economic data from2006 to 2015 of One Belt and One Road as an important index to measure the evolution of the spatial structure of inbound tourism in the Belt and Road,and used methods of inbound tourism economic development level,industrial status,the first degree index,the Ellison-Glaeser index,the Zipf index and Local Moran's I to study the spatial difference and coordination characteristics of inbound tourism of the Belt and Road in China from the perspective of"whole-part( sub-region)-individual( province) ". The conclusions were as follows: ①The unbalanced and harmonious tendency of One Belt and One Road coexisted,and the overall imbalance existed with local coordination. ②The maturity of regional inbound tourism was positively correlated with the rationality of regional spatial structure,that was,the more mature region of inbound tourism was,the more harmonious the development of inbound tourism was. ③There were obvious differences in spatial cluster type of inbound tourism between high-high fluctuation region,high-low fluctuation region and low-low fluctuation region. ④The maturity of inbound tourism was negative correlation with the quantity of LISA significant provinces of local region,that was,the number of provinces significantly correlated with low-low fluctuation region was more than that of high-low fluctuation region and high-high fluctuation region.
Based on the theory of unbalanced and harmonious development,this paper selected inbound tourism economic data from2006 to 2015 of One Belt and One Road as an important index to measure the evolution of the spatial structure of inbound tourism in the Belt and Road,and used methods of inbound tourism economic development level,industrial status,the first degree index,the Ellison-Glaeser index,the Zipf index and Local Moran's I to study the spatial difference and coordination characteristics of inbound tourism of the Belt and Road in China from the perspective of"whole-part( sub-region)-individual( province) ". The conclusions were as follows: ①The unbalanced and harmonious tendency of One Belt and One Road coexisted,and the overall imbalance existed with local coordination. ②The maturity of regional inbound tourism was positively correlated with the rationality of regional spatial structure,that was,the more mature region of inbound tourism was,the more harmonious the development of inbound tourism was. ③There were obvious differences in spatial cluster type of inbound tourism between high-high fluctuation region,high-low fluctuation region and low-low fluctuation region. ④The maturity of inbound tourism was negative correlation with the quantity of LISA significant provinces of local region,that was,the number of provinces significantly correlated with low-low fluctuation region was more than that of high-low fluctuation region and high-high fluctuation region.
引文
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[12]程晓丽,祝亚雯.基于点—轴理论的皖南国际旅游文化示范区旅游空间结构研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9)∶1082-1088.
[13]时朋飞,李星明.区域美丽中国建设与旅游业发展耦合关联性测度及前景预测———以长江经济带11省市为例[J].中国软科学,2018,(2)∶86-102.
[14]朱麟奇,李秋雨,刘继生.吉林省旅游业发展时空差异性及空间布局[J].地理科学,2016,36(3)∶424-430.
[15]陈秀山,石碧华.区域经济均衡与非均衡发展理论[J].教学与研究,2000,(10)∶12-18.
[16]周彩屏,戈冬梅.旅游规模差异及其位序规模体系研究———以浙江省为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(2)∶345-350.
[17]朱付彪,陆林,於冉,等.都市圈旅游空间结构演变研究———以长三角都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5)∶570-576.
[18]胡文海,程海峰,余菲菲.皖南国际文化旅游示范区旅游经济市圈旅游空间结构演变研究———以长三角都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5)∶570-576.
[19]Petrevska B. Seasonality in Macedonian Tourism[J]. Horizons Series A,2014,(13)∶41-54.
[20]John C,Richard C Stephen J. Seasonality of Overseas Tourism Demand in Scotland:A Regional Analysis[J]. Regional Studies,2013,49(10)∶1603-1620.
[21]Pan C M. Market Structure and Profitability in the International Tourist Hotel Industry[J]. Tourism Management,2005,26(6)∶845-850.
[22]陈秀琼,黄福才.中国入境旅游的区域差异特征分析[J].地理学报,2006,61(12)∶1271-1280.
[23]Smith S L J,Tyrell T J,Johnston R J. How Big,How Many? Enterprise Size Distributions in Tourism and other Industries[J]. Journal of Travel Research,2006,45(1)∶53-58.
[24]刘佳,赵金金.中国省域旅游经济发展的时空分异特征及其影响因素研究[J].经济问题探索,2012,(11)∶110-116.
[25]安士伟.中国宏观经济发展战略演变研究[J].经济经纬,2004,(2)∶26-28.
[26]茶洪旺.区域经济发展的第三种理论:非均衡协调发展[J].学术月刊,2008,(10)∶71-77.
[27]杨竹莘.非均衡协调发展的区域理论在中国的演变[J].商业研究,2010,398(6)∶99-103.
[28]黄剑辉,李洪侠.“一带一路”战略视阈下我国区域经济的协调发展[J].税务研究,2015,(6)∶22-30.
[29]陆林,余凤龙.中国旅游经济差异的空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(3)∶406-410.
[30]时朋飞,李星明,冯谨,等.基于2003—2014年的广西入境旅游等级规模结构演化特征动态研究[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,50(5)∶791-798.
[31]胡静,陈小娟,陈磊,等.山东省入境旅游规模结构演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7)∶170-176.
[32]Ellison G,Glaeser E L,Dumais G. Geographic Concentration as a Dynamic Process[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,84(2)∶193-204.
[33]刘惠敏.基于EG模型的北京都市区生产性服务业地理集中研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(2)∶56-60.
[34]赵黎明,邢雅楠.基于EG指数的中国旅游产业集聚研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2011,21(2)∶43-48.
[35]杨洪焦,孙林岩,高杰,等.中国制造业聚集度的演进态势及其特征分析———基于1988—2005年的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(5)∶55-66.
[36]Brakman S,Garretsen H,Marrewijk CV,et al. The Return of Zipf:Towards a Further Understanding of the Rank-Size Distribution[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,39(1)∶183-213.
[37]陈彦光.基于Moran统计量的空间自相关理论发展和方法改进[J].地理研究,2009,28(6)∶1449-1463.
[38]Anselin L. Local Indicators of Spatial Association———LISA[J]. Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2)∶93-115.
[39]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2016.
[40]国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2015.
[41]汪德根,陈田.中国旅游经济区域差异的空间分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(5)∶528-536.
[42]周晓艳,韩丽媛,叶信岳,等.基于位序规模法则的我国城市用地规模分布变化研究(2000—2012年)[J].华中师范大学学报(自科版),2015,49(1)∶132-138.
[43]时朋飞,邓志伟,梁嘉欣.中国旅游产业健康度水平特征动态研究———基于2001—2015年面板数据的实证分析[J].珞珈管理评论,2018,(1)∶203-217.
[44]Aghion P,Bolton P. A Theory of Trickle-down Growth and Development[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1997,64(2)∶151-172.
[45]Antonietti R,Cainelli G. KIBS and the City:GIS Evidence from Milan[J]. Economia Politica,2012,29(3)∶305-318.
[1]国务院关于促进旅游业改革发展的若干意见[EB/OL]. http://tjtb. mofcom. gov. cn/article/e/201408/20140800706925. shtml.
[2]金玲.“一带一路”:中国的马歇尔计划?[J].国际问题研究,2015,(1)∶88-99.
[3]范玉刚.“一带一路”战略的文化维度及其区域文化空间塑造[J].人文杂志,2016,(3)∶21-27.
[4]叶琪.“一带一路”背景下的环境冲突与矛盾化解[J].现代经济探讨,2015,(5)∶30-34.
[5]Carbone F. International Tourism and Cultural Diplomacy:A New,2017,65(1)∶61-74.
[6]Kang S H,Kim J W,Nicholls S,et al. Conceptual Approach towards Global Mutual Understanding and Peace through Tourism[J]. Tourism National Tourism Policy and Spatial Patterns of Domestic Tourism in South Korea[J]. Journal of Travel Research,2014,53(6)∶791-804.
[7]孟斌,王劲峰,张文忠,等.基于空间分析方法的中国区域差异研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(4)∶393-400.
[8]Chhetri A,Chhetri P,Arrowsmith C,et al. Modelling Tourism and Hospitality Employment Clusters:A Spatial Econometric Approach[J]. Tourism Geographies,2016,19(3)∶398-424.
[9]方叶林,黄震方,王坤,等.不同时空尺度下中国旅游业发展格局演化[J].地理科学,2014,34(9)∶1025-1032.
[10]Aleksandrova A Y. Typology of Countries of the World According to the Development Level of International Tourism[J]. Geography&Natural Resources,2016,37(1)∶18-25.
[11]Balaguer J,Pernías J C. Relationship Between Spatial Agglomeration and Hotel Prices:Evidence from Business and Tourism Consumers[J]. Tourism Management,2013,36(3)∶391-400.
[12]程晓丽,祝亚雯.基于点—轴理论的皖南国际旅游文化示范区旅游空间结构研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9)∶1082-1088.
[13]时朋飞,李星明.区域美丽中国建设与旅游业发展耦合关联性测度及前景预测———以长江经济带11省市为例[J].中国软科学,2018,(2)∶86-102.
[14]朱麟奇,李秋雨,刘继生.吉林省旅游业发展时空差异性及空间布局[J].地理科学,2016,36(3)∶424-430.
[15]陈秀山,石碧华.区域经济均衡与非均衡发展理论[J].教学与研究,2000,(10)∶12-18.
[16]周彩屏,戈冬梅.旅游规模差异及其位序规模体系研究———以浙江省为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(2)∶345-350.
[17]朱付彪,陆林,於冉,等.都市圈旅游空间结构演变研究———以长三角都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5)∶570-576.
[18]胡文海,程海峰,余菲菲.皖南国际文化旅游示范区旅游经济市圈旅游空间结构演变研究———以长三角都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5)∶570-576.
[19]Petrevska B. Seasonality in Macedonian Tourism[J]. Horizons Series A,2014,(13)∶41-54.
[20]John C,Richard C Stephen J. Seasonality of Overseas Tourism Demand in Scotland:A Regional Analysis[J]. Regional Studies,2013,49(10)∶1603-1620.
[21]Pan C M. Market Structure and Profitability in the International Tourist Hotel Industry[J]. Tourism Management,2005,26(6)∶845-850.
[22]陈秀琼,黄福才.中国入境旅游的区域差异特征分析[J].地理学报,2006,61(12)∶1271-1280.
[23]Smith S L J,Tyrell T J,Johnston R J. How Big,How Many? Enterprise Size Distributions in Tourism and other Industries[J]. Journal of Travel Research,2006,45(1)∶53-58.
[24]刘佳,赵金金.中国省域旅游经济发展的时空分异特征及其影响因素研究[J].经济问题探索,2012,(11)∶110-116.
[25]安士伟.中国宏观经济发展战略演变研究[J].经济经纬,2004,(2)∶26-28.
[26]茶洪旺.区域经济发展的第三种理论:非均衡协调发展[J].学术月刊,2008,(10)∶71-77.
[27]杨竹莘.非均衡协调发展的区域理论在中国的演变[J].商业研究,2010,398(6)∶99-103.
[28]黄剑辉,李洪侠.“一带一路”战略视阈下我国区域经济的协调发展[J].税务研究,2015,(6)∶22-30.
[29]陆林,余凤龙.中国旅游经济差异的空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(3)∶406-410.
[30]时朋飞,李星明,冯谨,等.基于2003—2014年的广西入境旅游等级规模结构演化特征动态研究[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,50(5)∶791-798.
[31]胡静,陈小娟,陈磊,等.山东省入境旅游规模结构演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7)∶170-176.
[32]Ellison G,Glaeser E L,Dumais G. Geographic Concentration as a Dynamic Process[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,84(2)∶193-204.
[33]刘惠敏.基于EG模型的北京都市区生产性服务业地理集中研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(2)∶56-60.
[34]赵黎明,邢雅楠.基于EG指数的中国旅游产业集聚研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2011,21(2)∶43-48.
[35]杨洪焦,孙林岩,高杰,等.中国制造业聚集度的演进态势及其特征分析———基于1988—2005年的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(5)∶55-66.
[36]Brakman S,Garretsen H,Marrewijk CV,et al. The Return of Zipf:Towards a Further Understanding of the Rank-Size Distribution[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,39(1)∶183-213.
[37]陈彦光.基于Moran统计量的空间自相关理论发展和方法改进[J].地理研究,2009,28(6)∶1449-1463.
[38]Anselin L. Local Indicators of Spatial Association———LISA[J]. Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2)∶93-115.
[39]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2016.
[40]国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2015.
[41]汪德根,陈田.中国旅游经济区域差异的空间分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(5)∶528-536.
[42]周晓艳,韩丽媛,叶信岳,等.基于位序规模法则的我国城市用地规模分布变化研究(2000—2012年)[J].华中师范大学学报(自科版),2015,49(1)∶132-138.
[43]时朋飞,邓志伟,梁嘉欣.中国旅游产业健康度水平特征动态研究———基于2001—2015年面板数据的实证分析[J].珞珈管理评论,2018,(1)∶203-217.
[44]Aghion P,Bolton P. A Theory of Trickle-down Growth and Development[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1997,64(2)∶151-172.
[45]Antonietti R,Cainelli G. KIBS and the City:GIS Evidence from Milan[J]. Economia Politica,2012,29(3)∶305-318.
[1]国务院关于促进旅游业改革发展的若干意见[EB/OL]. http://tjtb. mofcom. gov. cn/article/e/201408/20140800706925. shtml.