资源型城市转型政策实施效果评价——基于PSM-DID方法
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摘要
资源型城市的转型与发展,已经引起了各界的重视,我国在2013年底颁布了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013-2020年)》。客观评价这一政策产生的影响,不仅对于政策本身的实施和完善具有重要意义,而且能够对其他资源规划战略产生借鉴作用。本文首次使用2006-2015年中国233个地级市的面板数据,利用PSM-DID来评估《规划》对资源型城市经济增长产生的影响。研究发现,《规划》并未有效推动资源型城市地区生产总值的快速增长,甚至存在负面作用。通过分类比较,《规划》对衰退型、成熟型、再生型资源型城市均存在负面影响。最后,通过机制检验发现,《规划》在实施过程中存在着"政策陷阱",未来《规划》的完善重点在于加强软环境建设,建立奖惩结合的引导机制,给予资源型城市更多引导以帮助其调整产业结构,主动降低经济增长对资源开发的依赖度,重视人力资本积累,为资源型城市经济增长创造新的驱动力。
The transformation and development of resource-based cities has attracted the attentions from all circles. At the end of 2013, China promulgated the National Sustainable Development Planning for Resource-Based Cities(2013-2020). Objectively evaluating the impact of this policy is not only important for the implementation and improvement of the policy itself, but also can be used as a reference for other resource planning strategies. By using the panel data of 233 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this study found that the policy did not effectively promote the economic growth in resource-based cities, and even had a negative impact on declining, mature and regenerative resource-based cities. Through the mechanism test, it is found that there existed "policy trap" in the implementation. Further, the key point of perfecting the policy could be concluded as strengthening the construction of the soft environment, establishing a guiding mechanism combining with rewards and punishments, giving more policy support to help resource-based cities adjust the industrial structure and reduce the resource dependence, and accumulating human capital to create new driving forces for the economic development of resource-based cities.
The transformation and development of resource-based cities has attracted the attentions from all circles. At the end of 2013, China promulgated the National Sustainable Development Planning for Resource-Based Cities(2013-2020). Objectively evaluating the impact of this policy is not only important for the implementation and improvement of the policy itself, but also can be used as a reference for other resource planning strategies. By using the panel data of 233 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this study found that the policy did not effectively promote the economic growth in resource-based cities, and even had a negative impact on declining, mature and regenerative resource-based cities. Through the mechanism test, it is found that there existed "policy trap" in the implementation. Further, the key point of perfecting the policy could be concluded as strengthening the construction of the soft environment, establishing a guiding mechanism combining with rewards and punishments, giving more policy support to help resource-based cities adjust the industrial structure and reduce the resource dependence, and accumulating human capital to create new driving forces for the economic development of resource-based cities.
引文
[1]程志强. 煤炭资源开发地区发展滞后的原因分析[J]. 宏观经济管理,2007,(9): 28-31.
[2] 樊杰. 我国煤矿城市产业结构转换问题研究[J]. 地理学报,1993,(3): 28-36.
[3] 李博,张文忠,余建辉. 考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率及其差异研究[J]. 自然资源学报,2016,31(3): 377-389.
[4] 李江苏,王晓蕊,苗长虹. 基于两种DEA模型的资源型城市发展效率评价比较[J]. 经济地理,2017,37(4): 99-106.
[5] 刘瑞明,赵仁杰. 西部大开发: 增长驱动还是政策陷阱——基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J]. 中国工业经济,2015,(6): 32-43.
[6] 毛蒋兴,何邕健. 资源型城市生命周期模型研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(1): 56-60.
[7] 魏龙,潘安. 出口贸易和FDI加剧了资源型城市的环境污染吗?剧了基于中国285个地级城市面板数据的经验研究[J]. 自然资源学报,2016,(1): 17-27.
[8] 宋敏,刘学敏,NelsonHT. 资源型城市财源建设的风险识别与制度优化路径——以陕西省延安市为例[J]. 中国软科学,2016,(10): 62-70.
[9] 邵帅,齐中英. 西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J]. 经济研究,2008,(4): 147-160.
[10] 徐康宁,王剑. 自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究[J]. 经济研究,2006,(1): 80-91.
[11] 徐杰芳,田淑英,占沁嫣. 中国煤炭资源型城市生态效率评价[J]. 城市问题,2016,(12): 85-93.
[12] 徐盈之,胡永舜. 内蒙古经济增长与资源优势的关系——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J]. 资源科学,2010,32(12): 2391-2399.
[13] 张兵,左平桂. WUA与农民专业合作组织相互配合的效果评价——基于DID模型分析[J]. 农业技术经济,2009,(1): 98-102.
[14] 张娟,惠宁. 资源型城市环境规制的就业效应及其门限特征分析[J]. 人文杂志,2016,(11): 46-53.
[15] 周黎安,陈烨. 中国农村税费改革的政策效果: 基于双重差分模型的估计[J]. 经济研究,2005,(8): 44-53.
[16] Auty, R. and A. Warhurst. Sustainable Development in Mineral Exporting Economies[J]. Resources Policy, 1993, 19(1): 14-29.
[17] Innis, H. A. and H. Heaton. The Fur Trade of Canada[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1927, 38(3): 366-368.
[18] Lucas, R. and L. Tepperman. Minetown, Milltown, Railtown: Life in Canadian Communities of Single Industry[M]. USA: Oxford University Press, 2008.
[19] Papyrakis, E. and R. Gerlagh. Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in the United States[J]. European Economic Review, 2007, 51(4): 1011-1039.
[20] Sachs, J. D. and A. M. Warner. The Curse of Natural Resources[J]. European Economic Review, 2001, 45(4-6): 827-838.
[21] Sachs, J. D., A. M. Warner, A. ?slund, and S. Fischer. Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995,(1): 1-118.
(1)该定义来源于《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013-2020年)》。
(2)资源型城市是指因自然资源的开采而兴起或发展壮大,且资源性产业在工业中占有较大份额的城市。这里所指的自然资源大多为矿产资源,也包括森林资源。
[2] 樊杰. 我国煤矿城市产业结构转换问题研究[J]. 地理学报,1993,(3): 28-36.
[3] 李博,张文忠,余建辉. 考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率及其差异研究[J]. 自然资源学报,2016,31(3): 377-389.
[4] 李江苏,王晓蕊,苗长虹. 基于两种DEA模型的资源型城市发展效率评价比较[J]. 经济地理,2017,37(4): 99-106.
[5] 刘瑞明,赵仁杰. 西部大开发: 增长驱动还是政策陷阱——基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J]. 中国工业经济,2015,(6): 32-43.
[6] 毛蒋兴,何邕健. 资源型城市生命周期模型研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(1): 56-60.
[7] 魏龙,潘安. 出口贸易和FDI加剧了资源型城市的环境污染吗?剧了基于中国285个地级城市面板数据的经验研究[J]. 自然资源学报,2016,(1): 17-27.
[8] 宋敏,刘学敏,NelsonHT. 资源型城市财源建设的风险识别与制度优化路径——以陕西省延安市为例[J]. 中国软科学,2016,(10): 62-70.
[9] 邵帅,齐中英. 西部地区的能源开发与经济增长——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J]. 经济研究,2008,(4): 147-160.
[10] 徐康宁,王剑. 自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究[J]. 经济研究,2006,(1): 80-91.
[11] 徐杰芳,田淑英,占沁嫣. 中国煤炭资源型城市生态效率评价[J]. 城市问题,2016,(12): 85-93.
[12] 徐盈之,胡永舜. 内蒙古经济增长与资源优势的关系——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J]. 资源科学,2010,32(12): 2391-2399.
[13] 张兵,左平桂. WUA与农民专业合作组织相互配合的效果评价——基于DID模型分析[J]. 农业技术经济,2009,(1): 98-102.
[14] 张娟,惠宁. 资源型城市环境规制的就业效应及其门限特征分析[J]. 人文杂志,2016,(11): 46-53.
[15] 周黎安,陈烨. 中国农村税费改革的政策效果: 基于双重差分模型的估计[J]. 经济研究,2005,(8): 44-53.
[16] Auty, R. and A. Warhurst. Sustainable Development in Mineral Exporting Economies[J]. Resources Policy, 1993, 19(1): 14-29.
[17] Innis, H. A. and H. Heaton. The Fur Trade of Canada[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1927, 38(3): 366-368.
[18] Lucas, R. and L. Tepperman. Minetown, Milltown, Railtown: Life in Canadian Communities of Single Industry[M]. USA: Oxford University Press, 2008.
[19] Papyrakis, E. and R. Gerlagh. Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in the United States[J]. European Economic Review, 2007, 51(4): 1011-1039.
[20] Sachs, J. D. and A. M. Warner. The Curse of Natural Resources[J]. European Economic Review, 2001, 45(4-6): 827-838.
[21] Sachs, J. D., A. M. Warner, A. ?slund, and S. Fischer. Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995,(1): 1-118.
(1)该定义来源于《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划(2013-2020年)》。
(2)资源型城市是指因自然资源的开采而兴起或发展壮大,且资源性产业在工业中占有较大份额的城市。这里所指的自然资源大多为矿产资源,也包括森林资源。