基于主成分分析的中压配电网供电可靠性评估
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摘要
针对专家评判法在中压配电网供电可靠性评估确定指标权重的过程中容易受主观因素影响的问题,提出一种基于主成分分析的中压配电网供电可靠性评估方法。建立中压配电网供电可靠性评估指标体系,构造待评估对象的评估指标矩阵,并将其依次处理为归一化指标矩阵和标准化指标矩阵;通过对标准化指标矩阵的主成分分析,确定起主要作用的主成分,并以此求取综合评估函数中各可靠性指标的权重;建立待评估对象的供电可靠性综合评估函数,进而求得待评估对象的可靠性评估值;结合各指标权重及其归一化指标值绘制待评估对象的各指标满意度及重要性区域图,为中压配电网具有更高可靠性的改造提供了量化、直观的科学依据。工程实例证明了所提方法的有效性和实用性。
Aiming at the problem that the expert judgment method is easily influenced by subjective factors in the process of determining the index weight for power supply reliability evaluation of mid-voltage distribution network,an evaluation method based on principal component analysis is proposed. The evaluation index system of power supply reliability for mid-voltage distribution network is established,and the evaluation index matrix of the objects to be evaluated is constructed,which is successively converted to the normalized index matrix and standardized index matrix. The principal components playing the leading role are determined according to the principal component analysis of standardized index matrix,and the weights of each reliability index of the comprehensive evaluation function are calculated. The comprehensive evaluation function is then established to obtain the reliability evaluation value of the objects to be evaluated. Combined with the weights of each index and its normalized index value,the quadrant diagrams of satisfaction and importance for each index are drawn,which provides a quantitative and intuitive scientific tool for the reconstruction of mid-voltage distribution network with higher reliability. The validity and practicality of the proposed method are verified by an engineering example.
Aiming at the problem that the expert judgment method is easily influenced by subjective factors in the process of determining the index weight for power supply reliability evaluation of mid-voltage distribution network,an evaluation method based on principal component analysis is proposed. The evaluation index system of power supply reliability for mid-voltage distribution network is established,and the evaluation index matrix of the objects to be evaluated is constructed,which is successively converted to the normalized index matrix and standardized index matrix. The principal components playing the leading role are determined according to the principal component analysis of standardized index matrix,and the weights of each reliability index of the comprehensive evaluation function are calculated. The comprehensive evaluation function is then established to obtain the reliability evaluation value of the objects to be evaluated. Combined with the weights of each index and its normalized index value,the quadrant diagrams of satisfaction and importance for each index are drawn,which provides a quantitative and intuitive scientific tool for the reconstruction of mid-voltage distribution network with higher reliability. The validity and practicality of the proposed method are verified by an engineering example.
引文
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[13]杨廷方,张航,黄立滨,等.基于改进型主成分分析的电力变压器潜伏性故障诊断[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):149-153.YANG Tingfang,ZHANG Hang,HUANG Libin,et al.Incipient fault diagnosis based on improved principal component analysis for power transformer[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):149-153.
[14]刘宝英,杨仁刚.基于主成分分析的最小二乘支持向量机短期负荷预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(11):13-17.LIU Baoying,YANG Rengang.Short-term load forecasting model based on LS-SVM with PCA[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2008,28(11):13-17.
[15]聂宏展,聂耸,乔怡,等.基于主成分分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):134-138.NIE Hongzhan,NIE Song,QIAO Yi,et al.Comprehensive decisionmaking of alternative transmission network planning based on principal component analysis[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):134-138.
[16]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].统计与决策,2004(11):119-121.YU Xiaofen,FU Dai.A summary of multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods[J].Statistics and Decision,2004(11):119-121.
[17]国家能源局.供电系统用户可靠性评价规程:DL/T 836-2012[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2012.
[18]张鹏.基于主成分分析的综合评价研究[D].南京:南京理工大学,2004.ZHANG Peng.Comprehensive evaluation based on principal component analysis[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Science&Technology,2004
[19]余锦华.多元统计分析与应用[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2005:193-197.
[20]林海明,杜子芳.主成分分析综合评价应该注意的问题[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):25-31.LIN Haiming,DU Zifang.Some problems in comprehensive evaluation in the principal component analysis[J].Statistical Research,2013,30(8):25-31.
[2]KJOLLE G,ROLFSENG L,DAHL E.The economic aspect of reliability in distribution system planning[J].IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,1990,5(2):1153-1157.
[3]邱生敏,管霖.规划配电网简化方法及其可靠性评估算法[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(1):85-90.QIU Shengmin,GUAN Lin.Simplification of distribution network planning and its reliability evalution algorithm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(1):85-90.
[4]郑文杰,黄嘉健,孙川,等.基于停电性质分类的多环节电网可靠性评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):129-135.ZHENG Wenjie,HUANG Jiajian,SUN Chuan,et al.Reliability evaluation based on outage character classification for multi-level power grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):129-135.
[5]商海涛,吴林,赵渊,等.计及集中式馈线自动化的配电网可靠性评估模型[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(5):129-135.SHANG Haitao,WU Lin,ZHAO Yuan,et al.Reliability evaluation model of distribution network incorating centralized feeder automation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(5):129-135.
[6]LI Weixing,WANG Peng,LI Zhimin,et al.Reliability evaluation of complex radial distribution systems considering restoration sequence and network constraints[J].IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2004,19(2):753-758.
[7]WANG W D,LOMAN J M,ARNO R G,et al.Reliability block diagram simulation techniques applied to the IEEE Std.493 standard network[J].IEEE Trans on Industry Applications,2004,40(3):887-895.
[8]WARREN C A,AMMON R,WELCH G.A survey of distribution reliability measurement practices in the US[J].IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,1999,14(1):250-257.
[9]赵洪山,赵宇航,候杰群,等.需求响应对配电网供电可靠性影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(1):8-14.ZHAO Hongshan,ZHAO Yuhang,HOU Jiequn,et al.Effect of demand response on supply reliability of distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(1):8-14.
[10]BROWN R E,GUPTA S,CHRISTIE R D.Distribution system reliability assessment:momentary interruptions and storms[J].IEEETrans on Power Delivery,1997,12(4):1569-1575.
[11]李晓辉,徐晶,李达,等.基于层次分析的配电网可靠性评估指标体系[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2009,21(3):69-74.LI Xiaohui,XU Jing,LI Da,et al.Index system of reliability evaluation for distribution network based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2009,21(3):69-74.
[12]胡元潮,阮江军,杜志叶,等.基于TOPSIS法的变电站一次设备智能化评估[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(12):22-27.HU Yuanchao,RUAN Jiangjun,DU Zhiye,et al.Evaluation of substation primary equipment intellectualization based on TOPSIS[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(12):22-27.
[13]杨廷方,张航,黄立滨,等.基于改进型主成分分析的电力变压器潜伏性故障诊断[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):149-153.YANG Tingfang,ZHANG Hang,HUANG Libin,et al.Incipient fault diagnosis based on improved principal component analysis for power transformer[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):149-153.
[14]刘宝英,杨仁刚.基于主成分分析的最小二乘支持向量机短期负荷预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(11):13-17.LIU Baoying,YANG Rengang.Short-term load forecasting model based on LS-SVM with PCA[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2008,28(11):13-17.
[15]聂宏展,聂耸,乔怡,等.基于主成分分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):134-138.NIE Hongzhan,NIE Song,QIAO Yi,et al.Comprehensive decisionmaking of alternative transmission network planning based on principal component analysis[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(6):134-138.
[16]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].统计与决策,2004(11):119-121.YU Xiaofen,FU Dai.A summary of multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods[J].Statistics and Decision,2004(11):119-121.
[17]国家能源局.供电系统用户可靠性评价规程:DL/T 836-2012[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2012.
[18]张鹏.基于主成分分析的综合评价研究[D].南京:南京理工大学,2004.ZHANG Peng.Comprehensive evaluation based on principal component analysis[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Science&Technology,2004
[19]余锦华.多元统计分析与应用[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2005:193-197.
[20]林海明,杜子芳.主成分分析综合评价应该注意的问题[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):25-31.LIN Haiming,DU Zifang.Some problems in comprehensive evaluation in the principal component analysis[J].Statistical Research,2013,30(8):25-31.