中国农业现代化评价及其空间格局演化
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摘要
从投入、产出、生产服务3维度构建农业现代化评价指标体系,基于2000—2016年省域面板数据,采用熵权法实证分析了中国农业现代化时空演化规律与空间溢出效应。结果表明,2000—2016年中国整体层面的农业现代化发展水平呈上升趋势,并呈现出东高西低、北高南低的空间分异特征,分化为以黄淮海平原为核心的高值区和以西南山区为核心的低值区。农业现代化存在显著的空间集聚趋势与正向空间溢出效应,局域空间集聚方式以高-高集聚和低-低集聚型为主。应制定差异化的农业现代化发展提升策略,重点推动山区农业现代化水平的提升,并充分发挥地理上的空间溢出与辐射带动效用。
The evaluation index system of agricultural modernization was constructed from three dimensions of input, output and production services. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016, the temporal and spatial evolution law and spatial spillover effect of agricultural modernization in China were empirically analyzed by using the method of entropy weight. It was shown that from 2000 to 2016, China's overall level of agricultural modernization development showed an upward trend, and exhibited the characteristics of spatial differentiation of high in east, low in west, high in north and low in south. It was divided into high-value areas with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain as the core and low-value areas with the southwest mountainous areas as the core. There were significant spatial agglomeration trends and positive spatial spillover effects in agricultural modernization. The local spatial agglomeration mode was dominated by high-high and low-low. The government should formulate strategies to improve the development level of agricultural modernization in different areas, focus on promoting the level of agricultural modernization in mountainous areas, and give full play to the spatial spillover and radiation-driven effect.
The evaluation index system of agricultural modernization was constructed from three dimensions of input, output and production services. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016, the temporal and spatial evolution law and spatial spillover effect of agricultural modernization in China were empirically analyzed by using the method of entropy weight. It was shown that from 2000 to 2016, China's overall level of agricultural modernization development showed an upward trend, and exhibited the characteristics of spatial differentiation of high in east, low in west, high in north and low in south. It was divided into high-value areas with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain as the core and low-value areas with the southwest mountainous areas as the core. There were significant spatial agglomeration trends and positive spatial spillover effects in agricultural modernization. The local spatial agglomeration mode was dominated by high-high and low-low. The government should formulate strategies to improve the development level of agricultural modernization in different areas, focus on promoting the level of agricultural modernization in mountainous areas, and give full play to the spatial spillover and radiation-driven effect.
引文
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[2] 魏素豪.中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易:网络结构、关联特征与策略选择[J].农业经济问题,2018,39(11):101-113.WEI S H.Agricultural products trade between China and “the belt and road” countries:network structure,correlation characteristics and strategy selection[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018,39(11):101-113.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3] 刘琦,赵明正.农业现代化进程中农业要素使用强度变化规律研究:基于全球29个主要农业国家的国际经验[J].农业经济问题,2018,39(3):23-32.LIU Q,ZHAO M Z.Theoretical analysis and empirical study on international experience of agricultural modernization:based on the panel data of 29 major agricultural countries[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018,39(3):23-32.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4] 杜鹰.小农生产与农业现代化[J].中国农村经济,2018(10):2-6.DU Y.Small-scale production and agricultural modernization[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2018(10):2-6.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5] 张占耕.新时代中国特色农业现代化道路[J].区域经济评论,2018(2):102-111.ZHANG Z G.The agricultural modernization road with Chinese characteristics in the new era[J].Regional Economic Review,2018(2):102-111.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6] 杜宇能,潘驰宇,宋淑芳.中国分地区农业现代化发展程度评价:基于各省份农业统计数据[J].农业技术经济,2018(3):79-89.DU Y N,PAN C Y,SONG S F.Evaluation on the development degree of China's agricultural modernization:based on the calculation and grading of agricultural statistics in different regions at provincial level[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2018(3):79-89.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7] 夏四友,文琦,赵媛,等.榆林市农业现代化发展水平与效率的时空演变[J].经济地理,2017,37(10):173-180.XIA S Y,WEN Q,ZHAO Y,et al.Space-time evolution analysis of the agricultural modernization development of Yulin city[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(10):173-180.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8] 赵文英,付仁玲,何佳琪,等.我国各省农业现代化发展水平综合评价[J].中国农机化学报,2018,39(12):94-100.ZHAO W Y,FU R L,HE J Q,et al.Comprehensive evaluation on development level of agricultural modernization in every province of China[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2018,39(12):94-100.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9] 刘晓越.中国农业现代化进程研究与实证分析[J].统计研究,2004,21(2):10-16.LIU X Y.The research of Chinese agriculture modernization process and the relevant experimental study[J].Statistical Research,2004,21(2):10-16.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10] 蒋和平,崔凯.我国粮食主产区农业现代化指标体系的构建和测算及发展水平评价[J].农业现代化研究,2011,32(6):646-651.JIANG H P,CUI K.Construction and measuring of agricultural modernization evaluation index system on major grain producing areas in China[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2011,32(6):646-651.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11] 陈宁丽,张红方,张合兵,等.基于熵权TOPSIS法的耕地生态质量空间分布格局及主控因子分析:以河南省新郑市为例[J].浙江农业学报,2015,27(8):1444-1450.CHEN N L,ZHANG H F,ZHANG H B,et al.Spatial distribution and dominating factors analysis of ecological quality of cultivated land based on entropy-weighting TOPSIS method:a case study of Xinzheng City,Henan Province[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2015,27(8):1444-1450.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12] 陈明星,陆大道,张华.中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):387-398.CHEN M X,LU D D,ZHANG H.Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China's urbanization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):387-398.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13] 刘洋,陈英,张玉娇,等.农户参与农地整治的空间特征及其影响因素分析:以甘肃省河西走廊区为例[J].浙江农业学报,2017,29(8):1398-1408.LIU Y,CHEN Y,ZHANG Y J,et al.Analysis on spatial characteristics and influence factors of farmers' participation in land consolidation:a case of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2017,29(8):1398-1408.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14] ANSELIN L,BONGIOVANNI R,LOWENBERG-DEBOER J.A spatial econometric approach to the economics of site-specific nitrogen management in corn production[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2004,86(3):675-687.
[15] 崔凯,李宁辉,郭静利.农业生产的空间效应、产出弹性与技术差异分析:来自京津区县的例证[J].浙江农业学报,2015,27(12):2240-2248.CUI K,LI N H,GUO J L.Analysis on spatial effect,output elasticity and technical discrepancy of agricultural production:an example from Beijing and Tianjin counties[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2015,27(12):2240-2248.(in Chinese with English abstract)