泛珠三角区域旅游业碳排放量估算及驱动因素研究
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摘要
通过"自下而上"法估算了2004-2015年泛珠三角区域旅游业的CO2排放量,并构建统计指数对该区域碳减排贡献与潜力进行了详细分析,进而运用LMDI法分解了其旅游业CO2排放变化的驱动因素。实证结果表明:泛珠三角区域旅游业碳排放量在研究周期内持续快速增长,其中旅游交通碳排放是最重要的来源;其碳强度的脱钩指数多介于0到1之间,处于相对脱钩状态;泛珠三角区域旅游业碳减排潜力大于1,整体减排效率较高;消费水平和游客规模是促进该区域碳排放量增长的主要因素,而能源强度对碳排放的负向驱动作用效果显著。基于以上结论,对泛珠三角区域旅游业低碳发展提出了转变传统观念、改进能源强度、调整优化能源结构、加强旅游监管约束等对策建议。
The"bottom-up"method is used to estimate the carbon emissions of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region from2004 to 2015. And a carbon emission reduction index is built to analyze the contribution and potential of the region's emission reduction in detail. Furthermore,the LMDI decomposition method is used to identify the driving factors of carbon emission changes in the tourism.The empirical results show that the carbon emissions of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region continue to grow rapidly during the research cycle,with carbon emissions from tourism transportation being the most important source. The decoupling index of the carbon strength is mostly between 0 and 1,and it is in a relatively decoupling state. The potential of tourism reduction in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region is greater than 1,and the efficiency of overall emission reduction is higher. It is found that consumption level and tourist scale are the main factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions in the region, while energy intensity has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions. Based on the conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for low-carbon development of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region are proposed,such as changing traditional concepts,improving energy intensity,adjusting and optimizing energy structure,and strengthening tourism supervision and constraints.
The"bottom-up"method is used to estimate the carbon emissions of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region from2004 to 2015. And a carbon emission reduction index is built to analyze the contribution and potential of the region's emission reduction in detail. Furthermore,the LMDI decomposition method is used to identify the driving factors of carbon emission changes in the tourism.The empirical results show that the carbon emissions of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region continue to grow rapidly during the research cycle,with carbon emissions from tourism transportation being the most important source. The decoupling index of the carbon strength is mostly between 0 and 1,and it is in a relatively decoupling state. The potential of tourism reduction in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region is greater than 1,and the efficiency of overall emission reduction is higher. It is found that consumption level and tourist scale are the main factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions in the region, while energy intensity has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions. Based on the conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for low-carbon development of tourism in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region are proposed,such as changing traditional concepts,improving energy intensity,adjusting and optimizing energy structure,and strengthening tourism supervision and constraints.
引文
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[20]吴文化.我国交通运输行业能源消费和排放与典型国家的比较[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):19-22.
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[22]石培华,吴普.中国旅游业能源消耗与CO2排放量的初步估算[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):235-243.
[23]傅京燕.“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力[J].热带地理,2017,37(1):1-9.
[24]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:Which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[25]Albrecht J,Fran觭ois D,Schoors K.A Shapley decomposition of carbon emissions without residuals[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(9):727-736.
[2]Susanne Becken,David G.Simmons:Understanding energy consumption patterns of tourist attractions and activities in New Zealand.Tourism Management,2002,23(4):343-354.
[3]肖建红,王敏.旅游业二氧化碳排放量区域差异性及减排效果评估——以舟山普陀旅游金三角为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(11):28-36.
[4]钟永德,石晟屹,李世宏,罗芬,罗伟亮.我国旅游业碳排放测算方法构建与实证研究——基于投入产出视角[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2015,35(1):132-139.
[5]谢园方,赵媛.长三角地区旅游业能源消耗的CO2排放测度研究[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):429-438.
[6]范向丽,曾怡,郑向敏.福建省旅游业碳排放与能耗估算分析[J].旅游论坛,2016,9(2):78-84.
[7]王凯,李娟,席建超.中国旅游经济增长与碳排放的耦合关系研究[J].旅游学刊,2014,29(6):24-33.
[8]Becken S,Patterson M.Measuring National Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tourism as a Key Step Towards Achieving Sustainable Tourism.Tourism Management[J].2006,31(2):285-290.
[9]Dwyer L,Forsyth P,Spurr Retal.Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Australian Tourism.Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2010,18(3):355-376.
[10]陶玉国,黄震方,吴丽敏,等.江苏省区域旅游业碳排放测度及其因素分解[J].地理学报,2014,69(10):1438-1448.
[11]程占红,韩玉姣.2000-2012年山西省旅游业碳排放的时空差异[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(6):77-82.
[12]钟章奇,吴静,许爱文,魏梅,王铮.中国各省区旅游业碳排放量初步估算及区域差异[J].世界地理研究,2016,25(1):83-94.
[13]田红,丁长安.区域旅游业碳排放的时空差异——以山东省为例[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2018,20(6):45-54.
[14]王凯,邵海琴,周婷婷,等.基于STIRPAT模型的中国旅游业碳排放影响因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(3):1-12.
[15]宋权礼,陈玲玲.区域旅游产业碳排放动态及驱动因素研究——以江苏省旅游业为例[J].生态经济,2018,34(5):44-49.
[16]赵先超,滕洁.基于LMDI的湖南省旅游业碳排放影响因素分解[J].环境科学与技术,2018,41(9):192-199.
[17]李彩云,陈兴鹏,张子龙,等.敦煌市旅游业碳排放与经济增长的耦合关系分析[J].生态科学,2016,35(1):109-116.
[18]魏艳旭,孙根年,马丽君,等.中国旅游交通碳排放及地区差异的初步估算[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(2):76-84.
[19]包战雄,袁书琪,陈光水.不同游客吸引半径景区国内旅游交通碳排放特征比较[J].地理科学,2012,32(10):1168-1175.
[20]吴文化.我国交通运输行业能源消费和排放与典型国家的比较[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):19-22.
[21]G觟ssling S.Global environmental consequences of tourism[J].Global Environmental Change,2002,12(4):283-302.
[22]石培华,吴普.中国旅游业能源消耗与CO2排放量的初步估算[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):235-243.
[23]傅京燕.“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力[J].热带地理,2017,37(1):1-9.
[24]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:Which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[25]Albrecht J,Fran觭ois D,Schoors K.A Shapley decomposition of carbon emissions without residuals[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(9):727-736.