基于扩展计划行为理论的国际游客在雾霾威胁下的行为意向研究——以北京国际游客为例
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摘要
中国城市化和工业化经济的快速增长造成了严重的城市环境污染,旅游业具有高度敏感性和脆弱性,城市旅游发展受到环境污染的负面影响越来越明显。雾霾污染已经成为影响中国入境旅游发展的重要因素。本研究在计划行为理论模型的基础上,加入了"大众媒体传播"和"雾霾感知"两个扩展因子构建了理论模型,使用SPSS21.0统计软件和R统计软件进行统计分析,再运用频数分析、因子分析、结构方程模型等方法对到访北京的国际游客的行为意向进行解释和预测。研究结果显示:1)态度与行为意向之间存在显著的正(+)相关关系;2)主观规范与行为意向之间存在显著的正(+)相关关系;3)知觉行为控制与行为意向之间存在显著的正(+)相关关系;4)雾霾感知与行为意向之间存在显著的负(-)相关关系;5)大众媒体传播与雾霾感知之间存在显著的正(+)相关关系;6)大众媒体传播与行为意向之间不存在显著的相关关系。在分析结论的基础上,认为在减少排放的同时,还需利用大众媒体改善北京的国际旅游目的地形象。最后提出了本研究的不足。
The rapid growth of Chin's urbanization and industrialized economy has caused serious urban environmental pollution. Because of the sensitivity and vulnerability of tourism, urban tourism industry have received more and more negative impact by environmental pollution. Smog pollution has become an important factor constraining the development of China's inbound tourism. Based on the model of Theory of Planned Behavior(TPB), "mass media broadcast" and "smog perception" were added to construct the theoretical model. SPSS21.0 statistical software and R statistical software were adopted for data analysis. Frequency analysis, factor analysis and structural equation modeling(SEM) were used to explain and predict the behavioral intentions of Beijing international visitors. The results show that:(1) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between attitude and behavioral intention.(2) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between subjective norms and behavioral intentions.(3) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between perceived behavioral behavior and behavioral intentions.(4) There is a significant negative(-) correlation between smog perception and behavioral intention.(5) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between mass media broadcast and smog perception.(6) There is no significant correlation between mass media broadcast and behavioral intentions. Finally, it was put forward that besides reducing emissions, it is also necessary to improve Beijing's image as an international tourism destination through mass media. At the end, the limitation of this research was mentioned.
The rapid growth of Chin's urbanization and industrialized economy has caused serious urban environmental pollution. Because of the sensitivity and vulnerability of tourism, urban tourism industry have received more and more negative impact by environmental pollution. Smog pollution has become an important factor constraining the development of China's inbound tourism. Based on the model of Theory of Planned Behavior(TPB), "mass media broadcast" and "smog perception" were added to construct the theoretical model. SPSS21.0 statistical software and R statistical software were adopted for data analysis. Frequency analysis, factor analysis and structural equation modeling(SEM) were used to explain and predict the behavioral intentions of Beijing international visitors. The results show that:(1) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between attitude and behavioral intention.(2) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between subjective norms and behavioral intentions.(3) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between perceived behavioral behavior and behavioral intentions.(4) There is a significant negative(-) correlation between smog perception and behavioral intention.(5) There is a significant positive(+) correlation between mass media broadcast and smog perception.(6) There is no significant correlation between mass media broadcast and behavioral intentions. Finally, it was put forward that besides reducing emissions, it is also necessary to improve Beijing's image as an international tourism destination through mass media. At the end, the limitation of this research was mentioned.
引文
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[13] 彭建,张松,罗诗呷,杨璐.北京居民对雾霾的感知及其旅游意愿和行为倾向研究[J].世界地理研究, 2016, 25(6): 128-137.
[14] 唐承财,刘霄泉,宋昌耀.雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2016,32(5): 121-126.
[15] 廖琴,曲建升.基于雾霾案例的新媒体时代科学传播范式研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(5): 389-395.
[16] 叶晓滨.大众传媒与城市形象传播研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2012
[17] Carvalho A, Burgess J. Cultural circuits of climate change in UK broadsheet newspapers, 1985-2003[J]. Risk Analysis, 2005, 25(6): 1457-1469.
[18] Schulz W. Mediennutzung und umweltbewusstsein: Dependenz-und priming-effekte[J]. Publizistik, 2003, 48(4): 387-413.
[19] Holbert R L, Kwak N, Shah D V. Environmental concern, patterns of television viewing, and pro-environmental behaviors: Integrating models of media consumption and effects[J]. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 2003, 47(2): 177-196.
[20] Ajzen I. The theory of planned behavior[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991, 50: 179-211.
[21] Song H J, Lee C K, Boo S J. Understanding visiting behavior of nature-based festival: Focusing on environment friendly tourism behavior[J]. International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2011, 25(4): 21-38.
[22] Lee S K, Yang S T, Han J H. A Study on Tthe behavior of the leisure aviation festival visitors using the extended theory of planned behavior[J]. Journal of Tourism and Leisure Research, 2012, 24(4): 273-291.
[23] Kim J O, Kim N J. Outdoor recreation participants' cognition of climate change influencing on their behaviors[J]. Journal of Tourism Sciences, 2013, 37(6): 11-31.
[24] Jain R. China's pollution debacle and destabilization of inbound international tourism: A critique[J]. Transnational Corporations Review, 2010, 6: 213-227.
[25] 北京市环境保护局.2017年全市PM2.5年均浓度为58微克/立方米完成国家"大气十条"任务目标[EB/OL].http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/bjhrb/xxgk/jgzn/jgsz/jjgjgszjzz/xcjyc/xwfb/827457/index.html,2018-01- 03/2018-07-31.
[26] 北京市旅游发展委员会.2017年1-12月主要客源国(地区)来京情况[EB/OL]. http://www.bjta.gov.cn/xxgk/tjxx/lstjxx/2017/rjlyzqk_2017/398110.htm, 2018-02-11/2018-07-31.
[27] Hair J F, Black W C, Babin B J, Anderson R E, Tatham R L. Multivariate Data Analysis[M]. New Jersey: Upper Saddle River, 2006: 779.
[28] Fornell C, Larcker D F. Structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error: Algebra and statistics[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 1981, 18(1): 39-50.
[29] Sparks B A. Planning a wine tourism vacation? Factors that help to predict tourist behavioural intentions[J]. Tourism Management, 2007, 28: 1180-1192.
[30] Stamm K R, Clark F, Eblacas P R. Mass communication and public understanding of environmental problems: The case of global warming[J].Public Understanding of Science, 2000, 9(3): 219-237.
[31] Page S, Song H, Wu D C. Assessing the impacts of the global economic crisis and swine flu on inbound tourism demand in the United Kingdom[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2012, 51(2): 142-153.
[32] 北京市环境保护局. 上半年本市PM2.5平均浓度56μg/m3[EB/OL]. http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/bjhrb/xxgk/jgzn/jgsz/jjgjgszjzz/xcjyc/xwfb/835079/index.html,2018-07-24/2018-07-31.
[2] Gani A, Clements M D. The main determinants effecting international visitor arrivals in New Zealand: Some empirical evidence[J]. Tourism Economics, 2016, 38(1): 1-20.
[3] Zhou S. Pollution choking China's inbound tourism industry. China Daily (Europe) [EB/OL]. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-10/22/content_18781216.htm, 2014-10-22/2018-09-21.
[4] World Economic Forum. The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015[Z]. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2015.
[5] 李欣,杨朝远,曹建华.网络舆论有助于缓解雾霾污染吗? -兼论雾霾污染的空间溢出效应[J].经济学动态, 2017(6): 45-57.
[6] 唐承财,冯时,戴湘毅.雾霾天气对北京入境旅游者的影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(8): 198-202.
[7] 李静,Pearce P L,吴必虎, Morrison A M.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响-基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(10): 48-59.
[8] 唐承财,刘霄泉,宋昌耀.雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(5):121-126.
[9] 刘嘉毅,陈玉萍,夏鑫.中国空气污染对入境旅游发展的影响[J].资源科学,2018,40(7): 1473-1482.
[10] Anaman K A, Looi C N. Economic impact of haze-related air pollution on the tourism industry in Brunei Darussalam[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2000, 30(2): 133-144.
[11] Huang C. The impact of local environmental quality on international tourism demand: the case of China[D]. San Francisco: University of San Francisco, 2012.
[12] Zhang A P, Zhong L S, Xu Y, Wang H, Dang L J. Tourists' perception of haze pollution and the potential impacts on travel: Reshaping the features of tourism seasonality in Beijing, China[J]. Sustainability, 2015, 7(3): 2397-2414.
[13] 彭建,张松,罗诗呷,杨璐.北京居民对雾霾的感知及其旅游意愿和行为倾向研究[J].世界地理研究, 2016, 25(6): 128-137.
[14] 唐承财,刘霄泉,宋昌耀.雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2016,32(5): 121-126.
[15] 廖琴,曲建升.基于雾霾案例的新媒体时代科学传播范式研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(5): 389-395.
[16] 叶晓滨.大众传媒与城市形象传播研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2012
[17] Carvalho A, Burgess J. Cultural circuits of climate change in UK broadsheet newspapers, 1985-2003[J]. Risk Analysis, 2005, 25(6): 1457-1469.
[18] Schulz W. Mediennutzung und umweltbewusstsein: Dependenz-und priming-effekte[J]. Publizistik, 2003, 48(4): 387-413.
[19] Holbert R L, Kwak N, Shah D V. Environmental concern, patterns of television viewing, and pro-environmental behaviors: Integrating models of media consumption and effects[J]. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 2003, 47(2): 177-196.
[20] Ajzen I. The theory of planned behavior[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991, 50: 179-211.
[21] Song H J, Lee C K, Boo S J. Understanding visiting behavior of nature-based festival: Focusing on environment friendly tourism behavior[J]. International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2011, 25(4): 21-38.
[22] Lee S K, Yang S T, Han J H. A Study on Tthe behavior of the leisure aviation festival visitors using the extended theory of planned behavior[J]. Journal of Tourism and Leisure Research, 2012, 24(4): 273-291.
[23] Kim J O, Kim N J. Outdoor recreation participants' cognition of climate change influencing on their behaviors[J]. Journal of Tourism Sciences, 2013, 37(6): 11-31.
[24] Jain R. China's pollution debacle and destabilization of inbound international tourism: A critique[J]. Transnational Corporations Review, 2010, 6: 213-227.
[25] 北京市环境保护局.2017年全市PM2.5年均浓度为58微克/立方米完成国家"大气十条"任务目标[EB/OL].http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/bjhrb/xxgk/jgzn/jgsz/jjgjgszjzz/xcjyc/xwfb/827457/index.html,2018-01- 03/2018-07-31.
[26] 北京市旅游发展委员会.2017年1-12月主要客源国(地区)来京情况[EB/OL]. http://www.bjta.gov.cn/xxgk/tjxx/lstjxx/2017/rjlyzqk_2017/398110.htm, 2018-02-11/2018-07-31.
[27] Hair J F, Black W C, Babin B J, Anderson R E, Tatham R L. Multivariate Data Analysis[M]. New Jersey: Upper Saddle River, 2006: 779.
[28] Fornell C, Larcker D F. Structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error: Algebra and statistics[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 1981, 18(1): 39-50.
[29] Sparks B A. Planning a wine tourism vacation? Factors that help to predict tourist behavioural intentions[J]. Tourism Management, 2007, 28: 1180-1192.
[30] Stamm K R, Clark F, Eblacas P R. Mass communication and public understanding of environmental problems: The case of global warming[J].Public Understanding of Science, 2000, 9(3): 219-237.
[31] Page S, Song H, Wu D C. Assessing the impacts of the global economic crisis and swine flu on inbound tourism demand in the United Kingdom[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2012, 51(2): 142-153.
[32] 北京市环境保护局. 上半年本市PM2.5平均浓度56μg/m3[EB/OL]. http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/bjhrb/xxgk/jgzn/jgsz/jjgjgszjzz/xcjyc/xwfb/835079/index.html,2018-07-24/2018-07-31.