计数模型在池塘养殖游憩服务价值评估中的应用
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摘要
随着社会经济的快速发展,休闲渔业正在逐渐成为渔业产业经济发展的新方向。近十年来,上海地区加大了对休闲渔业的投入,使得该地区池塘养殖系统更加具有游憩服务价值。目前对池塘养殖游憩资源价值的研究相对较少,对相应的评估方法及其在池塘养殖游憩价值评估中的适用性也需进一步探讨。由于对评估方法研究的滞后,池塘养殖系统中的游憩服务价值往往得不到科学揭示。基于对青浦、嘉定、奉贤3区的实证调查结果,本文以上海市为例,使用计数模型的个人旅游成本法估算这3个地区的池塘养殖游憩价值,进而将泊松模型和负二项模型进行对比研究,并将本文得到的青浦地区池塘养殖游憩价值结果与前期研究成果进行比较,探讨两种模型在池塘养殖评价中的有效性及个人旅游成本(ITCM)与区域旅游成本(ZTCM)两种方法在此类评估中的稳定性。研究发现:①不同模型对池塘养殖游憩价值的评估结果存在差异,总体来看负二项模型优于泊松模型。②个人旅游成本法与区域旅游成本法估计结果比值为4.98︰1,分别以两种方法估算值作为养殖池塘系统游憩价值的上限值和下限值比较合适。③基于计数模型的个人旅行成本法评估青浦、嘉定和奉贤地区的池塘养殖游憩服务价值分别约为20 863.34元·hm 2·a 1、57 997.03元·hm 2·a 1和522.73元·hm 2·a 1。建议有关各方重新认识池塘养殖休憩价值,继续加大休闲渔业支持力度,保护该地区的池塘养殖生态系统,以促进旅游及池塘养殖产业的可持续发展,提高渔民收入水平。
With the rapid development of the third industry, recreational fishery has become one of significant sectors of fishery economy in China. At the same time, the increasing investment in the recent decade on the recreational fishery has made this industry more valuable in Shanghai. The literatures show that there are a few researches focused on the recreational values of pond aquaculture ecosystems, and the suitability of methods and models which may be used to analyze these values should be estimated. Owing to the lag of researches on the estimation methods, these eco-service values were not scientifically explained. Based on the investigation in Qingpu, Jiading and Fengxian, three suburban districts of Shanghai, this paper estimated the recreational values of the pond aquaculture ecosystems in these areas with count models of individual travel cost method(ITCM). The effectiveness of Poisson Model and Negative Binomial Regression Model were compared. The estimated value of the pond aquaculture ecosystems in Qingpu District this time and those results of former studies in the same area was also compared to analyze the stability of individual travel cost method(ITCM) and the zone travel cost method(ZTCM). The results showed that: ① estimated values of pond aquaculture ecosystems were sensitive to the models used, Negative Binomial Regression Model was more effective than Poisson Model when the data had discrete characteristics; ② it was feasible to use the estimated values by individual travel cost method and zone travel cost method as the upper and lower limits of pond aquaculture ecosystem services values respectively, the ratio of the values estimated by the two methods was 4.98︰1; ③ the recreational values in the three districts were approximately 20 863.34 Yuan·hm 2·a 1, 57 997.03 Yuan·hm 2·a 1and 522.73 Yuan·hm 2·a 1, respectively. The results suggest that stakeholders should recognize the existence and importance of these types of ecosystem services values, support the development of recreational fishery, protect the pond aquaculture ecosystems, and make full use of these ecosystems to promote the sustainable development of tour industry and aquaculture and increase fish farmers' income in these areas.
With the rapid development of the third industry, recreational fishery has become one of significant sectors of fishery economy in China. At the same time, the increasing investment in the recent decade on the recreational fishery has made this industry more valuable in Shanghai. The literatures show that there are a few researches focused on the recreational values of pond aquaculture ecosystems, and the suitability of methods and models which may be used to analyze these values should be estimated. Owing to the lag of researches on the estimation methods, these eco-service values were not scientifically explained. Based on the investigation in Qingpu, Jiading and Fengxian, three suburban districts of Shanghai, this paper estimated the recreational values of the pond aquaculture ecosystems in these areas with count models of individual travel cost method(ITCM). The effectiveness of Poisson Model and Negative Binomial Regression Model were compared. The estimated value of the pond aquaculture ecosystems in Qingpu District this time and those results of former studies in the same area was also compared to analyze the stability of individual travel cost method(ITCM) and the zone travel cost method(ZTCM). The results showed that: ① estimated values of pond aquaculture ecosystems were sensitive to the models used, Negative Binomial Regression Model was more effective than Poisson Model when the data had discrete characteristics; ② it was feasible to use the estimated values by individual travel cost method and zone travel cost method as the upper and lower limits of pond aquaculture ecosystem services values respectively, the ratio of the values estimated by the two methods was 4.98︰1; ③ the recreational values in the three districts were approximately 20 863.34 Yuan·hm 2·a 1, 57 997.03 Yuan·hm 2·a 1and 522.73 Yuan·hm 2·a 1, respectively. The results suggest that stakeholders should recognize the existence and importance of these types of ecosystem services values, support the development of recreational fishery, protect the pond aquaculture ecosystems, and make full use of these ecosystems to promote the sustainable development of tour industry and aquaculture and increase fish farmers' income in these areas.
引文
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[20]薛达元,包浩生,李文华.长白山自然保护区生物多样性旅游价值评估研究[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(2):140–145Xue D Y,Bao H S,Li W H.A study on tourism value of biodiversity in Changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve(cmbr)in northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,1999,14(2):140–145
[21]李巍,李文军.用改进的旅行费用法评估九寨沟的游憩价值[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2003,39(4):548–555Li W,Li W J.Using a modified travel cost method to evaluate the recreational benefits of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2003,39(4):548–555
[22]刘焕庆,夏友照.计数模型在旅游资源经济价值评估中的应用[J].东疆学刊,2011,28(3):88–92Liu H Q,Xia Y Z.The application of the counting method on the evaluation of tourism resource value[J].Dongjiang Journal,2011,28(3):88–92
[23]李晟,郭宗香,杨怀宇,等.养殖池塘生态系统文化服务价值的评估[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(12):3075–3083Li S,Guo Z X,Yang H Y,et al.Evaluation of cultural service value of aquaculture pond ecosystem[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2009,20(12):3075–3083
[24]Englin J,Shonkwiler J.Modeling recreation demand in the presence of unobservable travel cost:Toward a travel price model[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,29(3):368–377
[25]伍德里奇.横截面与面板数据的经济计量分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:547Wooldridge J M.Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2007:547
[26]王尔大,李作志,王忠福.利用计数统计模型方法评价大连星海公园旅游的经济价值[J].数理统计与管理,2009,28(1):23–31Wang E D,Li Z Z,Wang Z F.Application of count data models in valuing tourism benefits of Dalian Xinghai Park[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2009,28(1):23–31
[27]陈宛君,廖学诚.应用旅游成本法分析宜兰县英士、玉兰及仑埤社区的游憩效益[J].中华林学季刊,2007,40(3):341–355Chen W J,Liao X C.Application of travel cost method to analyze recreational benefits in Yingshi,Yulan,and Lunpi communities in the Ilan County[J].Quarterly Journal of Chinese Forestry,2007,40(3):341–35
[28]上海市水产办公室.上海市水产统计资料汇编[M].2010Fisheries and Aquaculture Office of Shanghai Agriculture Committee.Shanghai Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistical Year Book[M].2010
[2]OECD.环境项目和政策的经济评价指南[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1996:16–17OECD.The Economic Appraisal of Environmental Projects and Policies:A Practical Guide[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,1996:16–17
[3]Costanza R,d'Arge R,de Groot R,et al.The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital[J].Nature,1997,387(6630):253–260
[4]张象枢,魏国印,李克国.环境经济学[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1998:60–80Zhang X S,Wei G Y,Li K G,et al.Environmental Economics[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,1998:60–80
[5]李金昌,姜文莱,靳乐山.生态价值论[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,1999:l–5Li J C,Jiang W L,Jin L S.The Ecologica Value[M].Chongqing:Chongqing University Publishing House,1999:1–5
[6]蔡银莺,张安录.应用ZTCM和ITCM两种模型评估农地景观的游憩价值[J].农业技术经济,2008(1):66Cai Y Y,Zhang A L.Recreational value evaluation of farmland landscape using two kinds model of ZTCM and ITCM[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2008(1):66
[7]林法玲.关于发展福建海洋休闲渔业的探讨[J].现代渔业信息,2003(3):11–12Lin F L.Study of modern fisheries information about the development of Fujian marine recreational fisheries[J].Journal of Modern Fisheries Information,2003(3):11–12
[8]Trice A H,Wood S E.Measurement of recreation benefits[J].Land Economics,1985,34(2):195–207
[9]Clawson M.Method for Measuring the Demand for and Value of Outdoor Recreation[M].Washington D C:Resources for the Future,1959:10
[10]Bergstrom J C,Cordell H K.An analysis of the demand for and value of outdoor recreation in the United States[J].Journal of Leisure Research,1991,23(1):67–86
[11]Creel M D,Loomis J B.Theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimates for analysis of deer hunting in California[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1990,72(1):434–443
[12]Englin J,Cameron T A.Augmenting travel cost models with contingent behavior data[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,1996,7(2):133–147
[13]Shrestha R K,Seidl A F,Moraes A S.Value of recreational fishing in the Brazilian Pantanal:A travel cost analysis using count data models[J].Ecological Economics,2002,42(1/2):289–299
[14]Starbuck C M,Alexander S J,Berrens R P,et a1.Valuing special forest products harvesting:A two-step travel cost recreation demand analysis[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2004,10(1):37–53
[15]Anderson D M.Estimating the economic value of ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon:An application of travel cost count data models that account for excess zeros[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(4):1012–1020
[16]孟永庆,陈应发.森林游憩价值评估的8种方法[J].林业经济,1994(6):60–65Meng Y Q,Chen Y F.The eight methods for estimating values of forest recreation abroad[J].Forestry Economics,1994(6):60–65
[17]陈应发.国外森林游憩的经济价值评估[J].广东林业科技,1994(3):19–22Chen Y F.Foreign forest recreation economic value evaluation[J].Guangdong Forestry Science and Technology,1994(3):19–22
[18]陈应发,陈放鸣.国外森林游憩价值评估的两种流行方法[J].北京林业大学学报,1994,16(3):97–105ChenY F,Chen F M.Foreign forest recreation value evaluation of two popular methods[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,1994,16(3):97–105
[19]艾运盛,高岚,邱俊齐.武夷山国家风景名胜区游憩效益的评价[J].北京林业大学学报,1996,18(3):89–97Ai Y S,Gao L,Qiu J Q.Study on the recreational benifits of Wuyishan national senic spot[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,1996,18(3):89–97
[20]薛达元,包浩生,李文华.长白山自然保护区生物多样性旅游价值评估研究[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(2):140–145Xue D Y,Bao H S,Li W H.A study on tourism value of biodiversity in Changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve(cmbr)in northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,1999,14(2):140–145
[21]李巍,李文军.用改进的旅行费用法评估九寨沟的游憩价值[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2003,39(4):548–555Li W,Li W J.Using a modified travel cost method to evaluate the recreational benefits of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2003,39(4):548–555
[22]刘焕庆,夏友照.计数模型在旅游资源经济价值评估中的应用[J].东疆学刊,2011,28(3):88–92Liu H Q,Xia Y Z.The application of the counting method on the evaluation of tourism resource value[J].Dongjiang Journal,2011,28(3):88–92
[23]李晟,郭宗香,杨怀宇,等.养殖池塘生态系统文化服务价值的评估[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(12):3075–3083Li S,Guo Z X,Yang H Y,et al.Evaluation of cultural service value of aquaculture pond ecosystem[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2009,20(12):3075–3083
[24]Englin J,Shonkwiler J.Modeling recreation demand in the presence of unobservable travel cost:Toward a travel price model[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,29(3):368–377
[25]伍德里奇.横截面与面板数据的经济计量分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:547Wooldridge J M.Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2007:547
[26]王尔大,李作志,王忠福.利用计数统计模型方法评价大连星海公园旅游的经济价值[J].数理统计与管理,2009,28(1):23–31Wang E D,Li Z Z,Wang Z F.Application of count data models in valuing tourism benefits of Dalian Xinghai Park[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2009,28(1):23–31
[27]陈宛君,廖学诚.应用旅游成本法分析宜兰县英士、玉兰及仑埤社区的游憩效益[J].中华林学季刊,2007,40(3):341–355Chen W J,Liao X C.Application of travel cost method to analyze recreational benefits in Yingshi,Yulan,and Lunpi communities in the Ilan County[J].Quarterly Journal of Chinese Forestry,2007,40(3):341–35
[28]上海市水产办公室.上海市水产统计资料汇编[M].2010Fisheries and Aquaculture Office of Shanghai Agriculture Committee.Shanghai Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistical Year Book[M].2010