基于选择实验法的国家森林公园资源和管理属性经济价值评价
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摘要
随着国家森林公园旅游需求的快速增长,景区管理者面临着保护生态环境和满足游客游憩需求的双重压力。本文以沈阳国家森林公园为例,采用选择实验法和条件Logit模型分析效用最大化的景区资源和管理属性组合,并对景区内的主要属性进行经济价值评价。结果表明:植被覆盖率、水质清澈度、垃圾数量和拥挤度均对游憩效用具有显著影响。该公园当前经济价值为27.3元/人次旅行,对每一位游客每次旅行而言,植被覆盖率每提高10%,公园的经济价值将提高30元;水质清澈度每提高0.5m,公园经济价值将提高24元;垃圾数量增加5件/20m2,公园经济价值将损失20元。公园经济价值最大为36.6元/人次旅行,并得出其相应的效用最大化属性组合方案。此外,游客对公园当前的拥挤状况并不满意,其意愿支付为负值;另外,拥挤度水平与游客意愿支付之间呈倒U型,公园最佳的游客拥挤度为15人/100 m2,相应的最大意愿支付为44.6元。
As the demand for national forests increases rapidly,China's National Park Service is facing pressure by protecting the ecological environment while satisfying the demand of tourist recreation. Here,we take Shenyang National Forest Park as a case study and analyze resource and management attributes that generate the maximum recreational utility using choice experiment methods and conditional logit models. We found that vegetation coverage,water clarity,the amount of trash and crowding levels have a significant influence on recreation utility. For per visitor per trip,the current economic value of the park is 27 CNY. The park's economic value will increase by 30 CNY each time vegetation coverage is improved by 10%,by 24 CNY as water clarity is improved by 0.5 meters,and decline by 20 CNY per visitor per trip as the number of trash items is increased by 5 per 20 square meters.The maximum economic value of the park is 36.6CNY per visitor per trip,and we draw the attributes combination solutions in the condition of utility maximization. The ceiling ticket price of this park is 76.6 CNY. Visitors are not satisfied with the current level of crowding in the park as evidenced by visitors' negative willingness to pay.However,the relationship between the level of crowding and tourist willingness to pay follows an inverse U shape. The optimal level of crowding was found to be 15 people per 100 square meters,with the maximum amount willing to pay at 44.64 CNY per visitor per trip.
As the demand for national forests increases rapidly,China's National Park Service is facing pressure by protecting the ecological environment while satisfying the demand of tourist recreation. Here,we take Shenyang National Forest Park as a case study and analyze resource and management attributes that generate the maximum recreational utility using choice experiment methods and conditional logit models. We found that vegetation coverage,water clarity,the amount of trash and crowding levels have a significant influence on recreation utility. For per visitor per trip,the current economic value of the park is 27 CNY. The park's economic value will increase by 30 CNY each time vegetation coverage is improved by 10%,by 24 CNY as water clarity is improved by 0.5 meters,and decline by 20 CNY per visitor per trip as the number of trash items is increased by 5 per 20 square meters.The maximum economic value of the park is 36.6CNY per visitor per trip,and we draw the attributes combination solutions in the condition of utility maximization. The ceiling ticket price of this park is 76.6 CNY. Visitors are not satisfied with the current level of crowding in the park as evidenced by visitors' negative willingness to pay.However,the relationship between the level of crowding and tourist willingness to pay follows an inverse U shape. The optimal level of crowding was found to be 15 people per 100 square meters,with the maximum amount willing to pay at 44.64 CNY per visitor per trip.
引文
[1]2012年度森林公园建设经营情况[EB/OL]http://zgslgy.forestry.gov.cn/portal/slgy/s/2452/content-593271.html,2013-04-01/2013-09-20.
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[3]王尔大,韦健华,周英.基于CEM的国家森林公园游憩环境属性价值评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):81-87.
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[9]Chen W Y,Jim C Y.Contingent valuation of ecotourism development in country parks in the urban shadow[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development&World Ecology,2012,19(1):44-53.
[10]Zhang T,Yan H M,Zhan J Y,et al.Economic valuation of forest ecosystem services in Heshui watershed using contingent valuation method[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13:2445-2450.
[11]Juutinen A,Mitani Y,M?ntymaa E,et al.Combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management:A choice experiment application[J].Ecological Economics,2011,70:1231-1239.
[12]Hoyos D.The state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(8):1595-1603.
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[14]Vecchiato D,Tempesta T.Valuing the benefits of an afforestation project in a peri-urban area with choice experiments[J].Forest Policy and Economics,2013,26:111-120.
[15]Birol E,Koundouri P,Kountouris Y.Evaluating farmers’preferences for wastewater:Quantity and quality aspects[J].International Journal of Water,2008,4(1):69-86.
[16]Ndunda E N,Mungatana E D.Evaluating the welfare effects of improved wastewater treatment using a discrete choice experiment[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,123:49-57.
[17]Horne P,Boxall P,Adamowicz W.Multiple-use management of forest recreation sites:A spatially explicit choice experiment[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2005,207:189-199.
[18]Chaminuka P,Groeneveld R A,Selolane E C,et al.Tourist preferences for ecotourism in rural communities adjacent to Kruger National Park:A choice experiment approach[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(1):168-176.
[19]翟国梁,张世秋,Andreas K,等.选择实验的理论和应用-以中国退耕还林为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2006,1(3):1-5.
[20]张凌云.选择实验法在济南灵岩寺文化遗址景区开发管理中的应用[J].山东社会科学,2009,(9):145-150.
[21]张小红.基于选择实验法的支付意愿研究-以湘江水污染治理为例[J].资源开发与市场,2012,28(7):600-603.
[22]Lancaster K J.A new approach to consumer theory[J].Journal of Political Economics,1996,74(2):217-231.
[23]Shoji Y,Kuriyama K,Mieno T,et al.Providing quality recreation experiences in Japan[J].Economics Bulletin,2008,17(7):1-11.
[2]吴楚材,吴章文,郑群明,等.生态旅游概念的研究[J].旅游学刊,2007,22(1):67-71.
[3]王尔大,韦健华,周英.基于CEM的国家森林公园游憩环境属性价值评价研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):81-87.
[4]吕欢欢.基于选择实验法的国家森林公园游憩资源价值评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2013.
[5]但新球,周光辉.森林游憩对环境与景观生态系统的影响[J].中南林业调查规划,1996,15(1):56-60.
[6]Banzhaf H S.Economics at the fringe:Non-market valuation studies and their role in land use plans in the United States[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(3):592-602.
[7]Eom Y S,Larson D M.Improving environmental valuation estimates through consistent use of revealed and stated preference information[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2006,52(1):501-516.
[8]Salazar S S,Mene'ndez L G.Estimating the non-market benefits of an urban park:Does proximity matter?[J].Land Use Policy,2007,24:296-305.
[9]Chen W Y,Jim C Y.Contingent valuation of ecotourism development in country parks in the urban shadow[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development&World Ecology,2012,19(1):44-53.
[10]Zhang T,Yan H M,Zhan J Y,et al.Economic valuation of forest ecosystem services in Heshui watershed using contingent valuation method[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13:2445-2450.
[11]Juutinen A,Mitani Y,M?ntymaa E,et al.Combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management:A choice experiment application[J].Ecological Economics,2011,70:1231-1239.
[12]Hoyos D.The state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(8):1595-1603.
[13]M C,Rose J J M.Efficient stated choice experiments for estimating nested logit models[J].Transportation Research Part B,2009,43(1):19-35.
[14]Vecchiato D,Tempesta T.Valuing the benefits of an afforestation project in a peri-urban area with choice experiments[J].Forest Policy and Economics,2013,26:111-120.
[15]Birol E,Koundouri P,Kountouris Y.Evaluating farmers’preferences for wastewater:Quantity and quality aspects[J].International Journal of Water,2008,4(1):69-86.
[16]Ndunda E N,Mungatana E D.Evaluating the welfare effects of improved wastewater treatment using a discrete choice experiment[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,123:49-57.
[17]Horne P,Boxall P,Adamowicz W.Multiple-use management of forest recreation sites:A spatially explicit choice experiment[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2005,207:189-199.
[18]Chaminuka P,Groeneveld R A,Selolane E C,et al.Tourist preferences for ecotourism in rural communities adjacent to Kruger National Park:A choice experiment approach[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(1):168-176.
[19]翟国梁,张世秋,Andreas K,等.选择实验的理论和应用-以中国退耕还林为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2006,1(3):1-5.
[20]张凌云.选择实验法在济南灵岩寺文化遗址景区开发管理中的应用[J].山东社会科学,2009,(9):145-150.
[21]张小红.基于选择实验法的支付意愿研究-以湘江水污染治理为例[J].资源开发与市场,2012,28(7):600-603.
[22]Lancaster K J.A new approach to consumer theory[J].Journal of Political Economics,1996,74(2):217-231.
[23]Shoji Y,Kuriyama K,Mieno T,et al.Providing quality recreation experiences in Japan[J].Economics Bulletin,2008,17(7):1-11.