基于游客体验效用的旅游承载力评价方法
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摘要
鉴于传统旅游承载力以游客数量作为承载对象可能存在的不足和缺陷,提出以环境状态作为承载对象的旅游承载力定义。在评价方法上,在可接受变化限度理论框架下,运用陈述性偏好方法,根据游客在游憩活动中的成本效益作为环境状态可接受程度的评价标准。通过选择试验和条件logit模型得出潜在环境状态下游客对环境质量变化的边际效用和敏感程度。研究结果表明,游客对"拥挤程度"最为敏感,其次是"人文景观的保护程度",而"植被覆盖率"对游客效用的影响较弱。另外,给出了25个潜在环境属性集的环境状态情况,包括承载力状态,最优与最差状态,以及可接受与不可接受状态。
As the nature-based tourism demand increases, the forest park authorities and site managers need to understand the tradeoffs between the level of natural wilderness protection and the visitors' satisfactory experience. Tourism carrying capacity, as the core concern of natural tourism site management, has long been paid high attention by both relevant government agencies and academic institutions. But, due to its conceptual ambiguity, there is no clear cut and commonly accepted definition and connotation that is well established as a recreation parks' carrying capacity. Therefore,no universally consistent evaluation method exists for assessing carrying capacity of a recreational site such as a national forest park. Traditionally, the tourism carrying capacity often uses the potential number of visitors received at site as the singular criterion in measuring carrying capacity. A big shortcoming of this measurement is that it ignores visitors' perception toward a recreation site. In this paper, we propose adding the dimension of visitors' perception to the tourism carrying capacity metrics. In the process, this study adopts the limits of acceptable change(LAC) as the theoretical framework, combined with the stated preference methods as well as a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the level of acceptability of a creational site, and use this as a new metric for measuring a park's carrying capacity. In addition, the choice experiment design and conditional Logit model are utilized to evaluate the economic value of each environmental attribute and management factor. To demonstrate the proposed method of carrying capacity assessment, this research takes the Lüshunkou National Forest Park as a pilot study area which is located in northeastern China. One important feature about this park is that it has both forest resources and historical relics as recreation attractions for tourists- a typical natural resource park in China, but rarely present in other countries across the world.The model results show that visitors are mostly sensitive to the degree of crowding, less sensitive to the cultural resource protection, and the least sensitive to the vegetation coverage. As to the carrying capacity with respect to each individual environmental attribute, the vegetation coverage is 60% ~ 75%,amount of rubbish between 6~12 pieces / 200 m, level of crowding between 20 ~ 30 people / 100m2.Finally, the results also show the rank order for the total 25 environmental attribute sets developed from CE design. Given obtained potential states from the 25 environmental attribute sets described in appendix to the codes, the best attribute set is {C21}, the worst attribute set is {C10}, attribute set {C3,C11, C18, C25} are close to carrying capacity status. This paper focuses on the environmental factors affecting marginal changes to the carrying capacity, and hopes to explain the problem to the Institute of Tourism about the carrying capacity from the tourist satisfaction and decision angle. The research method not only enriches the research content and research perspective of tourism carrying capacity,but also provides a theoretical basis for improving scenic carrying capacity.
As the nature-based tourism demand increases, the forest park authorities and site managers need to understand the tradeoffs between the level of natural wilderness protection and the visitors' satisfactory experience. Tourism carrying capacity, as the core concern of natural tourism site management, has long been paid high attention by both relevant government agencies and academic institutions. But, due to its conceptual ambiguity, there is no clear cut and commonly accepted definition and connotation that is well established as a recreation parks' carrying capacity. Therefore,no universally consistent evaluation method exists for assessing carrying capacity of a recreational site such as a national forest park. Traditionally, the tourism carrying capacity often uses the potential number of visitors received at site as the singular criterion in measuring carrying capacity. A big shortcoming of this measurement is that it ignores visitors' perception toward a recreation site. In this paper, we propose adding the dimension of visitors' perception to the tourism carrying capacity metrics. In the process, this study adopts the limits of acceptable change(LAC) as the theoretical framework, combined with the stated preference methods as well as a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the level of acceptability of a creational site, and use this as a new metric for measuring a park's carrying capacity. In addition, the choice experiment design and conditional Logit model are utilized to evaluate the economic value of each environmental attribute and management factor. To demonstrate the proposed method of carrying capacity assessment, this research takes the Lüshunkou National Forest Park as a pilot study area which is located in northeastern China. One important feature about this park is that it has both forest resources and historical relics as recreation attractions for tourists- a typical natural resource park in China, but rarely present in other countries across the world.The model results show that visitors are mostly sensitive to the degree of crowding, less sensitive to the cultural resource protection, and the least sensitive to the vegetation coverage. As to the carrying capacity with respect to each individual environmental attribute, the vegetation coverage is 60% ~ 75%,amount of rubbish between 6~12 pieces / 200 m, level of crowding between 20 ~ 30 people / 100m2.Finally, the results also show the rank order for the total 25 environmental attribute sets developed from CE design. Given obtained potential states from the 25 environmental attribute sets described in appendix to the codes, the best attribute set is {C21}, the worst attribute set is {C10}, attribute set {C3,C11, C18, C25} are close to carrying capacity status. This paper focuses on the environmental factors affecting marginal changes to the carrying capacity, and hopes to explain the problem to the Institute of Tourism about the carrying capacity from the tourist satisfaction and decision angle. The research method not only enriches the research content and research perspective of tourism carrying capacity,but also provides a theoretical basis for improving scenic carrying capacity.
引文
[1]Butler R.The concept of carrying capacity for tourism destinations:Dead or merely buried[J].Progress in Tourism and Hospitality Research,1996,2(3):283-293.
[2]Tribe J,Font X,Grittis N,et al.Environmental Management for Rural Tourism and Recreation[M].London:Cassell,2000:34-55
[3]Yang Linquan,Wen Zhengxiang.Analysis tourism environmental bearing capacity in practice[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2003,13(5):71-75.[杨林泉,文正祥.旅游环境承载力实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2003,13(5):71-75.]
[4]Cui Fengjun.Study on the tourist environmental bearing capacity[J].Economic geography,1995,15(1):105-109.[崔凤军.论旅游环境承载力持续发展旅游的判据之一[J].经济地理,1995,15(1):105-109.]
[5]Sarrinen J.Traditions of sustainability in tourism studies[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2006,33(4):1121-1140.
[6]Manning R E.Parks and Carrying Capacity:Commons Without Tragedy[M].Washington,DC:Island Press,2007:54-62
[7]Cui Fengjun,Liu Jiaming,Li Qiaoling.Study of the theory and application of tourism bearing capacity index[J].Tourism Tribune,1998,13(3):41-44.[崔凤军,刘家明,李巧玲.旅游承载力指数及其应用研究[J].旅游学刊,1998,13(3):41-44.]
[8]Wall G.Cycles and capacity:Incipient theory of conceptual contradiction[J].Tourism Management,1982,3(3):188-192.
[9]Yang Rui.From recreation carrying capacity to LAC theory on the new development of environmental capacity concept[J].Tourism Tribune,2003,18(5):62-65.[杨锐.从游客环境容量到LAC理论——环境容量概念的新发展[J].旅游学刊,2003,18(5):62-65.]
[10]Mc Cool S,Lime D.Tourism carrying capacity:Tempting fantast or useful reality[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2001,9(5):372-388.
[11]Daniel A,Allan T,Newton A,et al.Recreation carrying capacity estimations to support beach management at Praiade Faro,Portugal[J].Applied Geography,2011,31(3):1075-1081.
[12]Budruk M,Manning R.Indicators and standards of quality at an urban-proximate park:Litter and graffiti at Boston harbor islands national recreation area[J].Journal of Park and Recreation Administration,2006,24(3):1-3.
[13]Lawson S,Manning R.Solitude versus access:A study of trade offs in outdoor recreation using indifference curve analysis[J].Leisure Sciences,2001,23(3):179-191.
[14]Cooper C,Fletcher J,Gilbert D,et al.Tourism Principles and Practice[M].Harlow:Longman,1998:37-44.
[15]Fernando J,Simon G,Narangajavana Y,et al.Carrying capacity in the tourism industry:A case study of Hengistbury Head[J].Tourism Management,2004,25(2):275-283.
[16]Lawson S R,Manning R E,Valliere W A,et al.Proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity in Arches National Park:An application of computer simulation modeling[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2003,68(3):305-313.
[17]Christie M,Hanley N,Hynes S.Valuing enhancements to forest recreation using choice experiment and contingent behavior methods[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2007,13(3):75-102.
[18]Salerno F,Viviano G,Manfredi E C,et al.Multiple carrying capacities from a management-oriented perspective to operationalize sustainable tourism in protected areas[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,128(15):116-125.
[19]Saveriades A.Establishing the social tourism carrying capacity for the tourist resorts of the east coast of the Republic of Cyprus[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(2):147-156.
[20]Papageorgiou K,Brotherton I.A management planning framework based on ecological,perceptual and economic carrying capacity:The case study of Vikos-Aoos National Park,Greece[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1999,56(4):271-284.
[21]Hensher D A,Rose J M,Greene W H.Applied Choice Analysis.a Primer[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2005:33-35.
[22]Jakus P,Shaw W D.Congestion at recreation areas:Empirical evidence on perceptions,mitigating behaviour and management preferences[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1997,50(4):389-401.
[23]Mc Fadden D.Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior[J].Frontiers in Econometrics,1974,1(2):105-142.
[24]Train K.Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation(the 2nd Edition)[M].Cambridge:Cambridge.University Press,2009:64-72
[25]Parsons G R,Kealy M J.Randomly drawn opportunity sets in a random utility model of lake recreation[J].Land Economics,1992,68(1):93-106.
[26]Hoyos D.The State of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(8):1595-1603.
[27]Yan Wentao.Research on urban ecosystem health attribute synthetic assessment model and application[J].Systems Engineering–Theory&Practice,2007,(8):137-144.[颜文涛.城市生态系统健康属性综合评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,(8):137-144.]
[28]Dong Chengsen,Xiong Ying,Qin Xinhao.The spatial bearing capacity of tourism resources space in Zhangjiajie National Forest Park[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(10):90-94.[董成森,熊鹰,覃鑫浩.张家界国家森林公园旅游资源空间承载力[J].系统工程,2008,26(10):90-94.]
[29]Hendee J,Dawson C.Wilderness Management(the 3rdEdition)[M].Golden,CO:Fulcrum Press,2002:37-68.
[30]Manning R,Leung Y,Budruk M.Research to support management of visitor carrying capacity at Boston harbor islands[J].Northeastern Naturalist,2005,12(3):201-206.
[31]Lawson S,Manning R.Balancing trade offs in the Denali wilderness:An expanded approach to normative research using stated choice analysis[A]//Proceedings of the 2001 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium[C].New York:USDA Forest Service,2001:15-24.
[2]Tribe J,Font X,Grittis N,et al.Environmental Management for Rural Tourism and Recreation[M].London:Cassell,2000:34-55
[3]Yang Linquan,Wen Zhengxiang.Analysis tourism environmental bearing capacity in practice[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2003,13(5):71-75.[杨林泉,文正祥.旅游环境承载力实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2003,13(5):71-75.]
[4]Cui Fengjun.Study on the tourist environmental bearing capacity[J].Economic geography,1995,15(1):105-109.[崔凤军.论旅游环境承载力持续发展旅游的判据之一[J].经济地理,1995,15(1):105-109.]
[5]Sarrinen J.Traditions of sustainability in tourism studies[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2006,33(4):1121-1140.
[6]Manning R E.Parks and Carrying Capacity:Commons Without Tragedy[M].Washington,DC:Island Press,2007:54-62
[7]Cui Fengjun,Liu Jiaming,Li Qiaoling.Study of the theory and application of tourism bearing capacity index[J].Tourism Tribune,1998,13(3):41-44.[崔凤军,刘家明,李巧玲.旅游承载力指数及其应用研究[J].旅游学刊,1998,13(3):41-44.]
[8]Wall G.Cycles and capacity:Incipient theory of conceptual contradiction[J].Tourism Management,1982,3(3):188-192.
[9]Yang Rui.From recreation carrying capacity to LAC theory on the new development of environmental capacity concept[J].Tourism Tribune,2003,18(5):62-65.[杨锐.从游客环境容量到LAC理论——环境容量概念的新发展[J].旅游学刊,2003,18(5):62-65.]
[10]Mc Cool S,Lime D.Tourism carrying capacity:Tempting fantast or useful reality[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2001,9(5):372-388.
[11]Daniel A,Allan T,Newton A,et al.Recreation carrying capacity estimations to support beach management at Praiade Faro,Portugal[J].Applied Geography,2011,31(3):1075-1081.
[12]Budruk M,Manning R.Indicators and standards of quality at an urban-proximate park:Litter and graffiti at Boston harbor islands national recreation area[J].Journal of Park and Recreation Administration,2006,24(3):1-3.
[13]Lawson S,Manning R.Solitude versus access:A study of trade offs in outdoor recreation using indifference curve analysis[J].Leisure Sciences,2001,23(3):179-191.
[14]Cooper C,Fletcher J,Gilbert D,et al.Tourism Principles and Practice[M].Harlow:Longman,1998:37-44.
[15]Fernando J,Simon G,Narangajavana Y,et al.Carrying capacity in the tourism industry:A case study of Hengistbury Head[J].Tourism Management,2004,25(2):275-283.
[16]Lawson S R,Manning R E,Valliere W A,et al.Proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity in Arches National Park:An application of computer simulation modeling[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2003,68(3):305-313.
[17]Christie M,Hanley N,Hynes S.Valuing enhancements to forest recreation using choice experiment and contingent behavior methods[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2007,13(3):75-102.
[18]Salerno F,Viviano G,Manfredi E C,et al.Multiple carrying capacities from a management-oriented perspective to operationalize sustainable tourism in protected areas[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,128(15):116-125.
[19]Saveriades A.Establishing the social tourism carrying capacity for the tourist resorts of the east coast of the Republic of Cyprus[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(2):147-156.
[20]Papageorgiou K,Brotherton I.A management planning framework based on ecological,perceptual and economic carrying capacity:The case study of Vikos-Aoos National Park,Greece[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1999,56(4):271-284.
[21]Hensher D A,Rose J M,Greene W H.Applied Choice Analysis.a Primer[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2005:33-35.
[22]Jakus P,Shaw W D.Congestion at recreation areas:Empirical evidence on perceptions,mitigating behaviour and management preferences[J].Journal of Environmental Management,1997,50(4):389-401.
[23]Mc Fadden D.Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior[J].Frontiers in Econometrics,1974,1(2):105-142.
[24]Train K.Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation(the 2nd Edition)[M].Cambridge:Cambridge.University Press,2009:64-72
[25]Parsons G R,Kealy M J.Randomly drawn opportunity sets in a random utility model of lake recreation[J].Land Economics,1992,68(1):93-106.
[26]Hoyos D.The State of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(8):1595-1603.
[27]Yan Wentao.Research on urban ecosystem health attribute synthetic assessment model and application[J].Systems Engineering–Theory&Practice,2007,(8):137-144.[颜文涛.城市生态系统健康属性综合评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,(8):137-144.]
[28]Dong Chengsen,Xiong Ying,Qin Xinhao.The spatial bearing capacity of tourism resources space in Zhangjiajie National Forest Park[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(10):90-94.[董成森,熊鹰,覃鑫浩.张家界国家森林公园旅游资源空间承载力[J].系统工程,2008,26(10):90-94.]
[29]Hendee J,Dawson C.Wilderness Management(the 3rdEdition)[M].Golden,CO:Fulcrum Press,2002:37-68.
[30]Manning R,Leung Y,Budruk M.Research to support management of visitor carrying capacity at Boston harbor islands[J].Northeastern Naturalist,2005,12(3):201-206.
[31]Lawson S,Manning R.Balancing trade offs in the Denali wilderness:An expanded approach to normative research using stated choice analysis[A]//Proceedings of the 2001 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium[C].New York:USDA Forest Service,2001:15-24.