沙漠型景区旅游环境承载力预警研究——以宁夏沙坡头为例
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摘要
以沙坡头景区为例,引入预警理论,运用旅游环境承载率计算公式和BP神经网络预测模型对沙漠型景区现状和未来旅游环境承载力进行预警分析。结果表明:(1)将沙漠型景区旅游环境承载力预警警界区间划分为弱载(<0.8)、适载(0.8～1.0)、轻度超载(1.0～1.2)、中度超载(1.2～1.5)、严重超载(>1.5)等5个级别,对应的预警状态分别用黑灯、绿灯、黄灯、橙灯和红灯来警示;(2)沙坡头景区现状旅游环境承载力在旅游旺季整体上处于弱载状态,但"五一"、"十一"假期处于超载状态;(3)沙坡头景区在2016—2020年内旅游环境承载力仍会处于不断上升的趋势,但速度会放缓,"五一"、"十一"假期旅游高峰期间会处于超载状态。根据承载力预警结果,提出不同承载状态的预警方案。
Taking the Shapotou scenic area as an example,introducing the early warning theory,using the tourism environment bearing rate calculation formula( TECR = TECQ/TECC) and the BP neural network prediction model,the present situation and future of the desert scenic area are analyzed. The conclusion is obtained:( 1) The tourism environment bearing capacity early warning border area in the desert scenic area is divided into weak load( <0.8),appropriate load( 0.8-1.0),mild overloading( 1.0-1.2),moderate overload( 1.2-1.5) and serious overloading( >1.5). The corresponding warning states were warned by black light,green light,yellow lamp,orange lamp and red light,respectively.( 2) The current tourism environment bearing capacity of the scenic area was in weak state on the whole tourist season,but the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday are in overloading state.( 3) The tourism environmental bearing capacity of the scenic area in the next 5 years will still in the rising trend,but the speed will slow down,the holiday peak period of the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday will overload. According to the bearing capacity early warning results,the early warning scheme of different.
Taking the Shapotou scenic area as an example,introducing the early warning theory,using the tourism environment bearing rate calculation formula( TECR = TECQ/TECC) and the BP neural network prediction model,the present situation and future of the desert scenic area are analyzed. The conclusion is obtained:( 1) The tourism environment bearing capacity early warning border area in the desert scenic area is divided into weak load( <0.8),appropriate load( 0.8-1.0),mild overloading( 1.0-1.2),moderate overload( 1.2-1.5) and serious overloading( >1.5). The corresponding warning states were warned by black light,green light,yellow lamp,orange lamp and red light,respectively.( 2) The current tourism environment bearing capacity of the scenic area was in weak state on the whole tourist season,but the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday are in overloading state.( 3) The tourism environmental bearing capacity of the scenic area in the next 5 years will still in the rising trend,but the speed will slow down,the holiday peak period of the May Day Holiday and National Day Holiday will overload. According to the bearing capacity early warning results,the early warning scheme of different.
引文
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[19]石磊,李陇堂,张冠乐,等.基于LAC理论的沙漠型景区旅游环境容量研究---以宁夏沙湖旅游区为例[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(6):1739-1747.
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[21]李陇堂,王艳茹,王继霞,等.沙漠型景区客源市场结构与游客行为特征---以宁夏沙坡头为例[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(3):587-593.
[22]李陇堂,石磊,杨莲莲,等.沙漠型旅游区体验项目承载力研究---以宁夏沙坡头景区为例[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(5):1041-1049.
[23]杨森林.发展旅游事业要与社会承载力相适应[J].商业经济与管理,1989(3):70-72.
[2]王佳.我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2014.
[3]翁钢民,赵黎明,杨秀平.旅游景区环境承载力预警系统研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2005,5(4):55-58.
[4]曾琳.旅游环境承载力预警系统的构建及其分析[J].燕山大学学报,2006,30(5):463-466.
[5]杨春宇,邱晓敏,李亚斌,等.生态旅游环境承载力预警系统研究[J].人文地理,2006,21(5):46-49.
[6]任利.旅游景区旅游开发环境影响预警评价的初步研究---以昆明西山旅游景区为例[D].昆明:云南师范大学,2007.
[7]董成森,陈端吕,董明辉.武陵源风景区生态承载力预警[J].生态学报,2007,27(11):4767-4774.
[8]王丽.城市旅游环境承载力预警研究[D].秦皇岛:燕山大学,2011.
[9]刘佳,刘宁,杨坤.我国旅游环境承载力预警研究综述与展望[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2012(1):73-76.
[10]戴丽芳,丁丽英.基于模糊综合评价的海岛旅游环境承载力预警研究[J].聊城大学学报(自然科学版),2012,25(4):71-74.
[11]赵永峰,焦黎,郑慧.新疆绿洲旅游环境预警系统浅析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):144-149.
[12]Skrakover S.Development of tourism resort areas in arid regions[R].Gradus Y.Desert Development.Dordrecht,Netherlands:Reidel Publishing Company,1985:45.
[13]Weaver D B.Deserts,grasslands and savannahs[M]//Weaver DB.The Eneyclopedia of Ecotourism.New York,USA:CABI Publishing,2001:251-263.
[14]王艳茹,李陇堂,张冠乐,等.中国沙漠旅游研究现状及展望[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(2):533-539.
[15]骆超.新疆和田玉龙湾沙漠旅游景区开发研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆师范大学,2014.
[16]李陇堂,薛晨浩,张至楠.沙漠型景区游步道沿线生态环境对踩踏干扰的响应[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(4):1048-1056.
[17]董瑞杰,董治宝.巴丹吉林沙漠景区旅游环境容量[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(5):1424-1433.
[18]杨锐.风景区环境容量初探---建立风景区环境容量概念体系[J].城市规划汇刊,1996(6):12-15.
[19]石磊,李陇堂,张冠乐,等.基于LAC理论的沙漠型景区旅游环境容量研究---以宁夏沙湖旅游区为例[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(6):1739-1747.
[20]杨松艳.海岛旅游环境承载力及其预警研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2012.
[21]李陇堂,王艳茹,王继霞,等.沙漠型景区客源市场结构与游客行为特征---以宁夏沙坡头为例[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(3):587-593.
[22]李陇堂,石磊,杨莲莲,等.沙漠型旅游区体验项目承载力研究---以宁夏沙坡头景区为例[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(5):1041-1049.
[23]杨森林.发展旅游事业要与社会承载力相适应[J].商业经济与管理,1989(3):70-72.