北京入境旅游需求与影响因素的长短期效应
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摘要
利用协整检验和误差修正模型,实证考察北京入境旅游需求与影响因素的长短期效应。在最终的长期模型中,北京入境旅游需求与国际航线数和汇率之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;在短期模型中,多种影响因素都会引致入境旅游需求的变化,但这种短期波动恢复到长期稳定关系的时间会很快。实证强烈支持了2003年发生的"非典"疫情、2008年开始的全球金融危机和2012年起恶化的雾霾等因素对北京入境旅游需求的负面影响。北京入境旅游需求只受到第一季度的季节因素影响,其他季度的季节性影响并不显著。
The purpose of this study was to analyze the Beijing inbound tourism demand and long or short effects of influence factors by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model.The results showed that in the Cointegrating equation,there is a long-term equilibrium and stable relationship between Beijing inbound tourism demand and international airlines and exchange rates,but GDP and CPI are not included.In the error correction equation,a variety of influence factors with lag time will lead to changes in inbound tourism demand,but the short-term volatility will return to a long-term stable relationship quickly.The empirical evidence strongly supports the negative impact of the SARS in 2003,the global financial crisis from 2008 and the worsening haze factors from 2012 on the inbound tourism demand in Beijing.At the same time,the study showed that the inbound tourism demand in Beijing is only affected by seasonal factors in the first quarter,and the impact of other quarters is not significant.
The purpose of this study was to analyze the Beijing inbound tourism demand and long or short effects of influence factors by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model.The results showed that in the Cointegrating equation,there is a long-term equilibrium and stable relationship between Beijing inbound tourism demand and international airlines and exchange rates,but GDP and CPI are not included.In the error correction equation,a variety of influence factors with lag time will lead to changes in inbound tourism demand,but the short-term volatility will return to a long-term stable relationship quickly.The empirical evidence strongly supports the negative impact of the SARS in 2003,the global financial crisis from 2008 and the worsening haze factors from 2012 on the inbound tourism demand in Beijing.At the same time,the study showed that the inbound tourism demand in Beijing is only affected by seasonal factors in the first quarter,and the impact of other quarters is not significant.
引文
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[2]张敏.北京提升旅游消费品质吸引入境游[N].国际商报,2017-06-29(A2).
[3]蒋依依,刘祥艳,宋慧林.出境旅游需求的影响因素[J].旅游学刊,2017(1):12-21.
[4]王纯阳,黄福才.基于“一般到简单”建模法的入境旅游需求研究[J].统计研究,2010(5):87-95.
[5]王铮,袁宇杰,熊文.重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响[J].旅游学刊,2010(4):44-49.
[6]张金华,林秀梅.基于面板协整模型分析的旅游需求影响因素研究[J].工业技术经济,2012(7):36-40.
[7]高军.改革开放35年来北京入境旅游人数历时动态分析[J].经济管理,2013(9):121-130.
[8]郭向阳,明庆忠,穆学青.云南省入境旅游发展变化及其驱动因素研究[J].学术探索,2017(4):132-140.
[9]方梦园.西部地区旅游经济差异及影响因素分析[J].重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013(5):43-47.
[10]刘霜,邱继勤.重庆市旅游产业发展与经济增长实证分析[J].重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版),2011(5):57-59.
[11]伍戈.中国的货币需求与资产替代:1994-2008[J].经济研究,2009(3):53-67.
[12]SONG H,LI G.Tourism demand modelling and forecasting:a review of recent research[J].Tourism management,2008,29(2):203-220.
[13]LIM C.Review of international tourism demand models[J].Annals of tourism research,1997,24(4):835-849.
[14]唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗?[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017(1):192-197.
[15]孙敬水.中级计量经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2009.
[16]陈灯塔.应用经济计量学:EViews高级讲义[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012.
[17]张晓峒.EViews使用指南与案例[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2007.