基于最大熵模型的中国血吸虫病传播风险评估
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摘要
气候生态因子是影响媒介传播性疾病流行风险的重要环境因素。本研究根据文献调研选取影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的潜在气候生态因子,基于各潜在因子的作用大小确定影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的主导因子,发展主导气候生态因子-血吸虫病关系的最大熵模型并评价其对中国区域血吸虫病传播风险的模拟效果。结果表明:影响中国血吸虫病传播风险的气候生态因子有年降水量、最暖月平均气温、稳定通过10℃持续日数和增强型植被指数(EVI),其累积贡献率为研究因子总贡献的98.6%;最大熵模型能较好地揭示中国血吸虫病传播风险与主导气候生态因子关系,其受试者特征曲线(ROC)评价结果为"非常好"(AUC为0.917);模型模拟的中国血吸虫病传播中高风险区位于江苏南部、浙江北部、广西中部、广东北部、云南北部、四川中部及湖北东部、湖南东北部、安徽中部、江西北部等地。研究结果对气候环境影响下中国血吸虫传播风险评估和疾病预防宏观对策制定具有工具价值和参考意义。
Climatic and ecological factors have significant impacts on vector-borne diseases.The potential climatic and ecological factors affecting transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are selected based on previous research results,and then the dominant factors are determined by contribution percentages to the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China.At last,the relation model between Schistosomiasis and dominant factors based on MaxEnt to model the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China is developed and its modelling results are assessed as well.The results show that the dominant climatic and ecological factors affecting the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month,the number of days with temperature over 10 ℃ and enhanced vegetation index,and the accumulated contribution percentage account for 98.6% of the used potential factors.According to the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve,Area Under Curve(AUC)is0.917;i.e.,the MaxEnt model based on dominant factors affecting Schistosomiasis can model the transmission risk in China"very good".The MaxEnt model results show that the medium and high transmission risk zone of Schistosomiasis in China are located in Southern Jiangsu,Northern Zhejiang,Central Guangxi, Northern Guangdong, Northern Yunnan, Central Sichuan and Eastern Hubei,Northeastern Hunan,Central Anhui and Northern Jiangxi,etc.In conclusion,MaxEnt can model well the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China under the impact of climatic and ecological factors,which can provide a tool to assess the impact of climate change on the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China and reference to make preventive measures.
Climatic and ecological factors have significant impacts on vector-borne diseases.The potential climatic and ecological factors affecting transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are selected based on previous research results,and then the dominant factors are determined by contribution percentages to the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China.At last,the relation model between Schistosomiasis and dominant factors based on MaxEnt to model the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China is developed and its modelling results are assessed as well.The results show that the dominant climatic and ecological factors affecting the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China are annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month,the number of days with temperature over 10 ℃ and enhanced vegetation index,and the accumulated contribution percentage account for 98.6% of the used potential factors.According to the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve,Area Under Curve(AUC)is0.917;i.e.,the MaxEnt model based on dominant factors affecting Schistosomiasis can model the transmission risk in China"very good".The MaxEnt model results show that the medium and high transmission risk zone of Schistosomiasis in China are located in Southern Jiangsu,Northern Zhejiang,Central Guangxi, Northern Guangdong, Northern Yunnan, Central Sichuan and Eastern Hubei,Northeastern Hunan,Central Anhui and Northern Jiangxi,etc.In conclusion,MaxEnt can model well the transmission risk of Schistosomiasisin China under the impact of climatic and ecological factors,which can provide a tool to assess the impact of climate change on the transmission risk of Schistosomiasis in China and reference to make preventive measures.
引文
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[25]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
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[2]吴刚,苏瑞平,张旭东.长江中下游滩地植被与钉螺孳生关系的研究[J].生态学报,1999,19(1):118-121.
[3]孙乐平,周晓农,洪青标,等.日本血吸虫幼虫在钉螺体内发育起点温度的研究[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2003,21(5):303-306.
[4]李兆芹,滕卫平,俞善贤,等.适合钉螺、血吸虫生长发育的气候条件变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):106-110.
[5]杨国静,孙乐平,洪青标,等.血吸虫病传播气候预警模型的应用与前景[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2009,21(5):432-436.
[6]张庆阳,琚建华,王卫丹,等.气候变暖对人类健康的影响[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):245-248.
[7]Thomas C.Malaria:a changed climate in Africa[J].Nature,2004,427:690-691.
[8]Craig M H,Snow R W,le Sueur D.A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa[J].Parasitology Today,1999,15(3):105-111.
[9]Zhou X N,Yang G J,Yang K,et al.Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China[J].The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene,2008,78(2):188-194.
[10]Rogers D J,Randolph S E.The global spread of malaria in a future,warmer world[J].Science,2000,289(5485):1763-1766.
[11]Jetten J H,陈文江.模型模拟估算全球气候变化时患疟疾的危险[J].国外医学:寄生虫病分册,1997,24(1):18-19.
[12]Yang G J,Vounatsou P,Zhou X N,et al.A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province,China[J].International Journal for Parasitology,2005,35(2):155-162.
[13]Hales S,de Wet N,Maindonald J,et al.Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever:an empirical model[J].The Lancet,2002,360(9336):830-834.
[14]Jaynes E T.Information theory and statistical mechanics[J].Physic Review,1957,106(2):620-630.
[15]Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3-4):231-259.
[16]段居琦,周广胜.中国水稻潜在分布及其气候特征[J].生态学报,2011,31(22):6659-6668.
[17]Liu S Y,Liang X Z,Gao W,et al.Regional climate model downscaling may improve prediction of alien plant species distribution[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2014,8(4):457-471.
[18]宋雄刚,王宏斌,张真,等.应用最大熵模型模拟预测大尺度范围油松毛虫灾害[J].林业科学,2016,52(6):66-75.
[19]夏聪聪,卢成芳,李思,等.基于最大熵模型和遥感的两种钉螺孳生地提取方法的比较[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2017,19(1):12-23.
[20]Thornton P E,Running S W,White M A.Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain[J].Journal of Hydrology,1997,190(3-4):214-251.
[21]赵劲松,王安云,周书林,等.青弋江江滩植被与钉螺分布关系的初步研究[J].中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2013,24(3):222-224.
[22]李红军,郑力,雷玉平,等.基于EOS/MODIS数据的NDVI与EVI比较研究[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(1):26-32.
[23]邢丁亮,郝占庆.最大熵原理及其在生态学研究中的应用[J].生物多样性,2011,19(3):295-302.
[24]刘少军,周广胜,房世波.中国橡胶树种植气候适宜性区划[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(12):2335-2345.
[25]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[26]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所.中国血吸虫病地图集[M].北京:中国地图出版社,2012.