基于PERT和JSA的深水无隔水管钻井作业风险评估
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摘要
深水钻井作业面临复杂恶劣的环境条件和地质条件,极易发生各种事故,面对当前行业降本增效的需求,基于系统安全理论和运筹学方法,提出结合计划评审技术(PERT)和工作安全分析(JSA)的深水钻井作业风险评估体系,对保障深水钻井作业的安全高效开展有重要意义。结合南海某深水钻井作业程序进行实例分析,结果表明,钻井作业关键路线为:钻前准备→组合一次钻进钻具→一次钻进→组合下套管→套管固井→侯凝和起钻→二次钻进→二次起钻→试采作业→弃井打水泥塞。高风险作业单元中钻前准备和一次钻进阶段所占比重较大,高风险危害包括导管下沉、钻遇浅层气井喷、形成水合物堵塞、台风应急解脱失败、DP定位失效和燃烧爆炸等,应重点关注并采取风险控制措施。
Deep water drilling is facing complex and harsh environmental and geological conditions, and is prone to various accidents.Faced with the need of reducing cost and increasing efficiency in this industry, a risk assessment system for deepwater drilling operation is proposed based on system safety theory and operational research methods, which combines program evaluation and review technique(PERT) and job safety analysis(JSA), and is of great significance to ensure safe and efficient deepwater drilling operations. An example of a deepwater drilling operation program in the South China Sea is analyzed. The result shows that the key route of deep-water drilling operation is pre-drilling preparation, combining primary drilling tool, first drilling, casing down, casing cementing, solidification and pulling out, secondary drilling, secondary pulling out, pilot production, drilling cement plug in abandoned well. Pre-drilling preparation and first drilling account for a large proportion in high-risk operation units. High-risk hazards include conduit sinking, shallow gas blowout, hydrate blockage, typhoon emergency failure, DP positioning failure and combustion explosion, etc.,which should be paid more attention to, and corresponding risk control measures should be taken.
Deep water drilling is facing complex and harsh environmental and geological conditions, and is prone to various accidents.Faced with the need of reducing cost and increasing efficiency in this industry, a risk assessment system for deepwater drilling operation is proposed based on system safety theory and operational research methods, which combines program evaluation and review technique(PERT) and job safety analysis(JSA), and is of great significance to ensure safe and efficient deepwater drilling operations. An example of a deepwater drilling operation program in the South China Sea is analyzed. The result shows that the key route of deep-water drilling operation is pre-drilling preparation, combining primary drilling tool, first drilling, casing down, casing cementing, solidification and pulling out, secondary drilling, secondary pulling out, pilot production, drilling cement plug in abandoned well. Pre-drilling preparation and first drilling account for a large proportion in high-risk operation units. High-risk hazards include conduit sinking, shallow gas blowout, hydrate blockage, typhoon emergency failure, DP positioning failure and combustion explosion, etc.,which should be paid more attention to, and corresponding risk control measures should be taken.
引文
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[3]都书海.工作安全分析在管理实践中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):204-208.
[4]王刚,徐长航,陈国明.基于工作安全分析和风险矩阵法的自升式平台拖航作业风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10):109-114.
[5]Miri Lavasani,Z.Yang,J.Finlay,J.Wang.Fuzzy risk assessment of oil and gas offshore wells[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2011,89(5):277-294.
[6]Jan Erik Vinnem.Evaluation of methodology for QRA in offshore operations Original Research Article[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,1998,61(1):39-52.
[7]Jan Erik Vinnem.Offshore Risk Assessment Principles,Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies-2nd Eddition[M].London:Springer,2007.
[8]李典庆,张圣坤.海洋结构物风险评估方法的研究进展[J].中国海洋平台,2003,18(3):9-15.
[9]Bai Yong.Marine Structural Design[M].Oxford:Elsevier Science Ltd,2003.
[10]柴松,余建星,马维林,等.基于CREAM和不确定推理的人因可靠性分析方法[J].天津大学学报,2012,45(11):958-962.
[11]郭恒,陈国明.基于图论的海洋平台连锁风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(5):106-112.
[12]魏超南,陈国明,杨冬平.基于CFD的海上钻井平台井喷天然气扩散规律研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(5):271-276.
[13]邓海发,陈国明.基于CFD的深水钻井溢油事故定量风险评估[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(2):233-236.
[14]郭恒,陈国明.海洋钻井平台事故致因分析与评价指标研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(3):108-113.
[15]魏超南,陈国明.“深水地平线”钻井平台井喷事故剖析与对策探讨[J].钻采工艺,2012,35(5):18-21.
[16]朱锟.海洋平台爆炸事故风险分析与防护对策研究[D].青岛:中国石油大学(华东),2011.
[17]刘少才.“爪哇海”号沉没敲响的警钟[J].中国减灾,2007(3):54-55.
[18]高克俭.“爪哇海”号钻井船遇难分析及建议[J].中国海洋平台,1989(4):38-41.
[19]畅元江,陈国明,许亮斌,等.超深水钻井隔水管设计影响因素[J].石油勘探与开发,2009,36(4):523-528.
[20]刘秀全,陈国明,雒晓康,等.防台风钻井隔水管技术现状及适用性分析[J].石油机械,2013,41(1):40-44.
[21]胡运权,郭耀煌.运筹学教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012.
[22]姜清兆,殷志明,罗洪斌,等.基于HAZOP的深水表层钻井风险分析[J].内蒙古石油化工,2013,39(7):1-4.
[23]Schubert J J,Juvkam-Wold H C,Weddle III C E.HAZOP of well control procedures provides assurance of the safety of the subsea mudlift drilling system[C]//IADC/SPE Drilling Conference.Society of Petroleum Engineers,2002.