基于3DEC模拟的既有铁路单体滑坡危险性分区与评价——以川黔线裁缝岩滑坡为例
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摘要
为了快速、准确地对既有铁路单体滑坡开展危险性分区与评价,将3DEC数值模拟和层次分析法(AHP)相结合,并利用"触发因素重现周期信息"的方法,制作川黔线裁缝岩滑坡危险性分区图,确定滑坡的年失稳概率。研究表明,该滑坡再次失稳后,滑坡前缘将滑入綦江中,形成体积约14×104m3的滑坡坝,并且有约723 m3溜滑体滑至川黔铁路雷吼洞洞口,阻塞铁路;该滑坡再次失稳的3日累计降雨量阈值为78. 7 mm,年失稳概率为56%。相较于传统方法,该方法可定量判别单体滑坡失稳后的运动路径和影响范围,为铁路应急抢险和后期防灾减灾提供指导和帮助。
In order to quickly and accurately divide and evaluate the hazard of single landslide along the existing railways,3 DEC numerical simulation and analytic hierarchy process( AHP) were combined,furthermore the method of "reproducing periodic information of trigger factors"was used to prepare the hazard division map of Caifengyan landslide on Chuan-Qian railway,and the annual probability of stability loss of the landslide was determined. The results indicate that the slip mass will slide into Qijiang river after the landslide failure again to form a landslide dam of about 14×104 m3,and another slip mass of about 723 m3 will slide into Leihou Portal of the Chuan-Qian railway to cause a block on the route. Besides,the three-day cumulative precipitation threshold causing failure of the landslide is confirmed as 78. 7 mm and annual probability of stability loss of the landslide is 56%. Compared with the traditional one,this method can be used to quantitatively identify the movement path and influence range after the single landslide instability,providing guidance and help for railway emergency rescue and disaster prevention and reduction in the later period.
In order to quickly and accurately divide and evaluate the hazard of single landslide along the existing railways,3 DEC numerical simulation and analytic hierarchy process( AHP) were combined,furthermore the method of "reproducing periodic information of trigger factors"was used to prepare the hazard division map of Caifengyan landslide on Chuan-Qian railway,and the annual probability of stability loss of the landslide was determined. The results indicate that the slip mass will slide into Qijiang river after the landslide failure again to form a landslide dam of about 14×104 m3,and another slip mass of about 723 m3 will slide into Leihou Portal of the Chuan-Qian railway to cause a block on the route. Besides,the three-day cumulative precipitation threshold causing failure of the landslide is confirmed as 78. 7 mm and annual probability of stability loss of the landslide is 56%. Compared with the traditional one,this method can be used to quantitatively identify the movement path and influence range after the single landslide instability,providing guidance and help for railway emergency rescue and disaster prevention and reduction in the later period.
引文
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[2]李嘉雨,陈亮,蒋良文,等.川黔线裁缝岩滑坡灾害的基本特征与初步研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2016(4):1-7.
[3] Bunce C M,Cruden D M,Morgenster N R. Assessment of the hazard from rock fall on a Highway[J]. Can. Geotech. J. 1997,34:344-356.
[4] T Glade. Landslide Hazard Assessment and Historical Landslide Data-An Inseparable Couple[J]. Landslide hazard assessment and historical landslide data,2001:153-168.
[5] Cardinali M,Reichenbach P,Guzzetti F,et al. A geomorphological approach to the estimation of landslide hazards and risks in Umbria,Central Italy[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2002(2):57-72.
[6] William C Haneberg. A rational probabilistic method for spatially distributed landslide hazard assessment[J]. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience,2004,10(2):27-43.
[7] Rex L. Baum,William H. Schulz,Dianne L. Brien,et al. Plenary:Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA[J]. Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment,2014,1:21-36.
[8]陈丽霞,殷坤龙,汪洋.单体滑坡灾害风险预测[J].自然灾害学报,2008(2):65-70.
[9]张茂省,唐亚明.地质灾害风险调查的方法与实践[J].地质通报,2008(8):1205-1216.
[10]韩金良,燕军军,孙炜锋,等.陕西省宝鸡市陈仓区吴家沟滑坡风险评价[J].地质通报,2009(8):1118-1126.
[11]唐亚明,张茂省,薛强.一种大比例尺的滑坡风险区划方法——以延安市区黄土滑坡风险评价为例[J].地质通报,2011(1):166-172.
[12]薛强,张茂省,孙萍萍,等.基于多期DEM和滑坡强度的滑坡风险评估[J].地质通报,2013(6):925-934.
[13]冯立,张茂省,张成航,等.四川虹口黑泥湾滑坡风险性评估[J].西北地质,2014(3):165-176.
[14]唐亚明,张茂省.滑坡风险评价难点及方法综述[J].水文地质工程地质,2011(2):130-134.
[15] Fell R,Corominas J,Bonnard C,et al. Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land use planning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3-4):85-98.
[16] Fall M,Azzam R,Noubactep C. A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping[J]. Engineering Geology,2006,82(4):241-263.
[17]吴钟腾.云南彝良麻窝滑坡失稳后的运动危险区预测研究[D].成都:成都理工大学,2014.
[18] SAATY T L. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York:Mc Graw-Hill,1980:35-40.